September 27 and 28, 2000

RAND
1200 South Hayes Street
Arlington, Virginia
Room 4204

Organizers

Jim Kadtke and Robert Lempert

Confirmed Speakers and Preliminary Topics

Final Agenda

(As of September 25, 2000)

Day 1 - September 27,2000
8:00 a.m.	Continental Breakfast
8:30 a.m.	Welcome
8:45	Introductory Remarks: Congressman Mike Doyle(D-PA)
	Session 1
9:00	Overview of Current Policy Issues: Bruce Don (RAND) "Complexity and Public Policy: A Hallmark of the 21st Century?"
9:15	Overview of Complexity Theory: David Campbell (BostonU.)
9:30	Technical Presentation: Chris Meyer (Ernst & Young) "Self-Organization in the Connected Economy"
10:00	Break and Discussion
	Session 2
10:30	Technical Presentation: Rob Axtell (Brookings) "Zipf'sLaw of City Sizes: A Microeconomic Explanation Far From Equilibrium"
11:00	Technical Presentation: Laura Gilliom (Sandia Lab) "Sandia's Engineered Collectives Program: Agent-Enabled Assurance of DistributedInformation Systems"
11:30	Technical Presentation: Tom Maxwell (U. Maryland) "Collaborative Spatial Modeling of Ecological Economic Systems"
12:00	Lunch (food provided, w/ softwaredemos)
12:30 p.m.	Lunchtime Conversation: Ken Baskin "SocialEcosystems: A Complexity Context for Health Care Policy"
	Session 3
1:30	Technical Presentation: Kathleen Carley (Carnegie-MellonU.) "Managing Change: An Interaction Knowledge Perspective"
2:00	Technical Presentation: Dan Hastings (MIT) "Why didApollo succeed and the Space Exploration Initiative fail: A System DynamicsAnalysis"
2:30	Technical Presentation: Nigel Gilbert (U. Surrey) "Innovation Networks: a Policy Model"
3:00	Break and Discussion
	Session 4
3:30	Technical Presentation: Al Brandstein (USMC) "The USMC'sProject Albert"
4:00	Technical Presentation: Ron Smith (Los Alamos) "Individual-Activity-Based Infrastructure Simulations"
4:30	Technical Presentation: Dave Meyer (UCSD, IPS) "TheComplexity of Voting"
5:00	Conclude Day 1
6:30	Cocktails at the Ritz-Carlton
7:00	Banquet
7:30	Banquet Speaker: Mark Tilden "If It's theFuture, Where's My Robot?

Day 2 - September 28,2000
7:45 a.m.	Continental Breakfast
8:10 a.m.	Administrative Announcements
8:20	Introductory Comments: Joseph Eash, Deputy Under Secretaryof Defense (Advanced Systems & Concepts)
	Session 5
8:30	Technical Presentation: Carl Simon (U. Michigan) "Modeling the complexity of and policy approaches to the HIV epidemic"
9:00	Technical Presentation: Mike North (Argonne) "A Tool forAgent-Based Infrastructure Interdependency Policy Analysis"
9:30	Technical Presentation: Bill Reynolds (Least-SquaresInc.) "A General Framework for Representing Behavior in Agent BasedModeling"
10:00	Break and Discussion
	Session 6
10:30	Technical Presentation: Thad Brown (Los Alamos, IPS) "Modeling Complex Leadership Structures"
11:00	Technical Presentation: Robert Bernard(PricewaterhouseCoopers) "Policy Simulator: A Decision Support System forLocal Governments"
11:30	Technical Presentation: Dianne Barton (Sandia) "Analysis of Complexity in Infrastructure Systems Using Agent BasedMicrosimulation"
12:00	Lunch (food provided, w/ softwaredemos)
	Special Presentation: Congressman Curt Weldon(R-PA)
12:30 p.m.	Lunchtime Conversation: Leslie Henrickson (UCLA) "Trends in the Use of Chaos and Complexity Theories and Methods in the SocialSciences"
	Session 7
1:00	Technical Presentation: Chris Owens (BIOS) "GettingThere is Half the Fun: Why an Uncalibrated, Unverified Model is Still a GoodThing"
1:30	Technical Presentation: Steve Bankes (RAND) "Tools andTechniques for Developing Robust Decisions for Complex Systems"
2:00	Technical Presentation: Rob Lempert (RAND) "RobustStrategies for Abating Climate Change"
2:30	Technical Presentation: Gus Koehler (Cal. ResearchBureau) "Simulating the Timing of Public Policy Interventions"
3:00	Break
3:30	Panel Discussion on Future Directions and PolicyApplications: Thad Brown, Tom Czerwinski, Mike Lissack, Steven Popper, SteveRinaldi, Len Troncale
4:30	Adjourn