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Long-Term Policy Analysis

Decisionmakers often face strategic choices, the outcomes of which remain uncertain for the coming decades. The success of these decisions depends on a variety of factors, many of them beyond the control of the decisionmakers. RAND has been instrumental in developing and applying futures methodologies as tools to support decisionmaking under such conditions of high uncertainty.

Throughout its history, RAND Europe has carried out strategic analysis for many UK and European institutions. We have assessed the future impacts of actions over a wide range of policy areas, from science and technology to social cohesion. By drawing on RAND's tradition of considering the future through new lenses, we offer innovative, tailored approaches based on qualitative and quantitative methodologies, including scenario thinking, modelling and forecasting, gaming, roadmapping and Delphi. In doing so, RAND Europe works closely with its clients, facilitates workshops with participants from many different backgrounds, and communicates research results in engaging and concise ways.

Additionally, RAND Europe draws on the expertise of the RAND Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition. RAND researchers from this programme have been developing and testing novel approaches that aim to address some of the shortcomings of current scenario practice.

RAND Europe also holds a framework contract with the Horizon Scanning Centre at the UK Office of Science and Technology. As part of this relation, RAND provides strategic futures analysis through a range of methods to UK government departments facing future challenges.

More »Current Projects

Informing New Social Policy In a Responsive Europe (INSPIRE) — 06 March 2009

This is a long-term, multi-disciplinary research project commissioned by DG Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities (DG EMPL). It aims to provide an information base to assist the Commission and Member States make better-informed decisions on the development and implementation of employment and social policies.

More »Completed Research

Shaping Tomorrow Today: Near-Term Steps Towards Long-Term Goals — 13 August 2009

In March 2009, the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition hosted a workshop giving analysts, planners, decisionmakers and interested lay observers from many countries a collaborative opportunity to explore new methods and tools that can help improve long-term decisionmaking. They considered when it is important to make long-term (as opposed to short-term) decisions, how to make better long-term decisions, and how best to support policymakers in thinking long term, using as case studies the areas of education, international policy, and climate change.

Full DocumentRAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition

Bridging Long-Term Scenario and Strategy Analysis—Organisation and Methods — 29 April 2009

This study contains an analysis of the success factors and barriers necessary to successfully embedding scenario planning and other strategic future analysis approaches in public policy making, with particular reference to environmental planning.

Full Document (www.eea.europa.eu)