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Three Strikes and You’re Out

Estimated Benefits and Costs of California’s New Mandatory-Sentencing Law

Cover: MR-509

By: Peter W. Greenwood, C. Peter Rydell, Allan Abrahamse, Jonathan P. Caulkins, James Chiesa, Karyn Model, Stephen P. Klein

The authors report on the benefits and costs of California’s new mandatory-sentencing law, which provides for progressively longer sentences with an increasing number of prior convictions for serious felonies. The authors find that the new law, if fully implemented, will decrease serious crime committed by adults by about 28 percent at a cost of an extra $5.5 billion a year. Alternatives that narrow the law’s application result in a lower benefit but an even greater reduction in costs. The authors were also able to devise an alternative that resulted in the same crime-reduction benefit for lower cost. The authors conclude that the state budget cuts required to fund the new law will be so great that it is unlikely to be fully implemented.

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Paperback Cover Price: $25.00

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Pages: 87

ISBN/EAN: 0-8330-1597-4

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Contents

Chapter 1:
Introduction

Chapter 2:
Sentencing Alternatives for Repeat Offenders

Chapter 3:
How the Analysis Was Done

Chapter 4:
Benefits and Costs of the Sentencing Alternatives

Chapter 5:
Footing the Bill

Appendix A:
The Jones Three-Strikes Law

Appendix B:
Classification of Crimes As Serious or Violent

Appendix C:
Tabular Specification of Alternatives

Appendix D:
Parameter Estimates

Appendix E:
Model Implementation

References

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