Fiscal Year 2009 Research Agenda

Strategy and Doctrine Program:

China’s Military Operations and Capabilities: “Soft” and “Hard” Power

This project will help the Air Force assess and respond to the challenges to American interests posed by China’s growing security cooperation activities and by its evolving airpower capabilities. China is undertaking a growing diversity of security cooperation and military diplomacy activities in Asia, from arms sales to joint training exercises. This study will examine the scope, nature, and patterns of these activities and also evaluate their implications for U.S. defense relationships in the region. The study will also examine newly available sources on PLA Air Force tactics and capabilities and assess the implications of these for future USAF operations.

Sponsor: PACAF/A5, A2
Project Leader: Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros

China’s Military Space Power: Future Concepts and Capabilities

This project seeks to help USAF leaders ensure that the United States has appropriate space and counter-space capabilities in the future by improving our understanding of the future directions of China’s military space program. Researchers are collecting and evaluating recent PLA doctrinal writings on military operations in space and reviewing trends in PLA space capabilities. This project began in FY08 and is scheduled to complete its work on 31 March 2009.

Sponsor: AF/A2
Project Leader: Roger Cliff

U.S.-India Strategic Relations: A New Look

This project seeks to help guide USAF and also DoD leaders as they structure military-to-military interactions with India’s armed forces as part of a broader policy effort to build a long-term strategic partnership between the United States and India. The project will evaluate prospects for U.S.-Indian strategic relations by assessing fundamental questions about the kind of power that India will become, key elements of its decisionmaking processes, its strategic considerations, and its vision for projecting power within and beyond its region. The project also will include a detailed examination of India’s Air Force, including its capabilities, limitations, and prospects. Research is expected to last two years.

Sponsor: AF/A5X
Project Leader: Christine Fair

Assessing and Enhancing the Effectiveness of Airpower in Counterinsurgency

This project seeks to help airmen to both gain a better understanding of the roles that airpower can and should play in counterinsurgency operations and articulate those contributions more effectively. The project will focus on two closely related issues concerning the employment of airpower in counterinsurgency conflicts: (1) how might airpower’s effects be better measured, and (2) how might airpower’s effects be increased. Research will draw on case studies of past counterinsurgency operations in order to shape thinking about future applications of airpower in such contingencies. The project will place special focus on means for enhancing the integration of air and ground operations in COIN.

Sponsor: AF/A3/5
Project Leader: Stephen Hosmer

Assessing Options for U.S. Nuclear Forces and Arms Control

This project seeks to help USAF leaders prepare for the likely resumption of nuclear arms control negotiations with Russia as the expiration of the START framework approaches. Research will build on PAF’s FY08 work on future requirements and strategy for U.S. nuclear forces in light of emerging challenges, such as nuclear-armed regional adversaries (North Korea and, potentially, Iran) and growing Chinese military power. The project team will develop and evaluate options for limiting U.S. and Russian nuclear forces, including strategic offensive and defensive forces, as well as theater-range forces. Research will encompass an assessment of both U.S. and Russian forces and objectives.

Sponsor: AF/CVA, AF/A5X
Project Leader: James Quinlivan

Assessing the Effectiveness of Aviation Foreign Internal Defense

The purpose of this project is to assist the USAF in determining the strategic and operational effectiveness of missions to train, advise, and assist (TAA) partner nations in aviation foreign internal defense (AvFID). The research will develop a framework for evaluating TAA missions based on in-depth analysis of after-action and lessons-learned reports as well as field research on U.S., allied, and partner nation perspectives on AvFID. Insights from the research should help inform AFSOC and USAF efforts to develop an Irregular Warfare (IW) Wing, expand the 6th Special Operations Squadron, consider involvement of general-purpose forces in AvFID, and draft and advocate future TAA and security cooperation plans.

Sponsor: AFSOC/CC
Project Leader: David Thaler

U.S. Security Roles in Latin America

The objective of this project is to help USAF and AFSOUTH leaders to better understand key long-term trends in the Latin American security environment that could pose challenges to U.S. strategic interests. The study’s findings will inform the development of U.S. defense policy toward Latin America, with a view to posturing air and space capabilities in order to more effectively protect and advance U.S. interests. Research will encompass an examination of geo-political threats, including the emergence of anti-U.S. regimes and movements (Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia), activities of hostile extra-hemispheric actors (primarily Iran), and potential opportunities in Cuba's transition to the post-Castro era. The project team will also address issues of insurgent, terrorist and trans-national criminal networks, and energy security.

Sponsor: AF/A5X
Project Leader: Angel Rabasa

Exploring Airpower’s Roles in Non-Canonical Scenarios

The objective of this project is to help ensure that Air Force leaders have the clearest possible understanding of the demands that joint forces could encounter in future conflicts that lie beyond the bounds of familiar planning scenarios. This project will begin by assessing the capabilities of programmed USAF forces in DoD’s new suite of defense planning scenarios as well as in other plausible contingencies. Assessments will be done using strategic- and operational-level war games as well as quantitative tools (e.g., combat models). Research will also encompass an exploration of potentially “new” sources of conflict, including intensified competition for resources and the secondary effects of climate change.

Sponsor:AF/A8X
Project Leader: David Shlapak

Supporting USAF Participation in the QDR

The objective of this project is to assist the Air Force leadership by developing firm analytical bases for the Combat Air Force (CAF) and selected supporting elements of the Air Force program over the course of the next Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP). Work in FY09 will be a follow-on to PAF’s FY08 study "USAF Force Structure Options For Major Combat Operations." The FY09 effort will extend the analysis of USAF force structure options to include assessments of the demands of irregular warfare. Project staff will also conduct additional analysis on force structure options as requested by AF/A8X and AF/CVAQ.

Sponsor: AF/CVAQ, AF/A8X
Project Leader: Alan Vick

Building the Afghan and Iraqi Air Forces: Lessons for TAA Missions

The purpose of this study is to assist the Air Force in understanding how effective its train, advise, and assist (TAA) missions in Afghanistan and Iraq have been. The research will draw primarily upon empirical evidence from the field, including, but not limited to, discussions with U.S., Afghan, Iraqi, and allied personnel involved in these TAA missions. The study will assess changes over time since the commencement of TAA activities in both countries, and identify best practices and areas for improvement. The study will provide recommendations across a variety of areas, including strategy, doctrine, organizational issues, manpower and personnel resources, pre-deployment training, equipment, and related processes. The project team will also assess trends in key insurgency movements in Iraq to help inform decisionmakers about the potential future security situation there.

Sponsor: AF/A5X, AETC/CC
Project Leader: Jennifer Moroney, Kim Cragin

A Review of Air Force Ops-to-Ops Relationships

The purpose of this study is to assist the Air Staff operations community in reviewing priorities among the ops-to-ops relationships that have been established over time with a number of partner air forces. Sustaining these relationships is time-intensive and there may be countries not currently on the list with which the USAF should seek to establish closer ties. The project will seek to identify ways to leverage a wide range of interactions with partner forces, including the Unified Engagement war games and MPEP exchanges, as a means of reinforcing relationships with key partner air forces.

Sponsor: AF/A5X
Project Leader: Jennifer Moroney

Analyzing Partner Capacity Building Activities in Europe and Africa

This project seeks to help component commands and Headquarters, USAF to better understand which of the Air Force’s recent building partner capacity (BPC) activities have had the greatest impact, how to meet OSD, COCOM, and USAF assessment requirements, where there are partnering opportunities with key allied air forces, and implications of these efforts for future resource requirements. Project staff will tailor the Air Force security cooperation assessment framework developed by PAF in FY08 to USAFE’s requirements and will apply this framework to assessments of activities in key countries/subregions in Europe/Eurasia and Africa. Staff will engage officials from U.S. and partner nations to gain insights on the effectiveness of recent USAF BPC efforts and seek to identify “best practices” that can be applied to future efforts worldwide.

Sponsor: USAFE/A5/8/9, 17AF/CC
Project Leader: Jeff Marquis