Fiscal Year 2009 Research Agenda

Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program

Force Development

This project seeks to enable Airmen of all grades to be more deliberately developed, thereby producing a cadre of highly qualified leaders for today and tomorrow. Tasks include:

Force Management and Development Council (FMDC) analytic support. Assist officer, enlisted, and civilian panels and the AF Learning Committee by developing and vetting development policy options.
Development team analytic support. Design methods to transform development teams from functionally focused pseudo-assignment teams into strategic workforce management and succession planning bodies.
Institutional Competency List (ICL) assessment and refinement. Use scientific methods to support an AF ICL update.
Manpower/personnel/service career field management and development. Assist the AF/A1 community by specifying and implementing development objectives for its workforces, providing a template for other career field managers.

Sponsor: AF/A1D, AF/A1P, AF/A1X, AFPC/CC
Project Leader: Lawrence Hanser

Management of the Senior Executive Service Workforce

This project seeks to enhance recruitment, development, and management of members of the Senior Executive Service (SES). Tasks include:

Review and analyze executive resource requirements to determine if the Air Force SES workforce is properly sized. Aggregate indicators suggest that the Air Force SES workforce is undersized, but deeper analysis is needed to present a compelling business case for additional billets to OSD and the Office of Personnel Management.
Provide technical support for annual Performance Review Board (PRB) and Assessment/Utilization Advisory Board. PRB support includes modeling of assessment outcomes to determine appropriate payout share values. Assessment/Utilization Board requires analysis of projected requirements. These boards impact senior executive workforce, i.e., future assignments, pay increases/bonuses (set by statute), and succession planning efforts.

Sponsor: AF/DPS
Project Leader: John Boon

Air Force Culture

This project will explore additional avenues for operationalizing Air Force core values and also to ensure family well-being and foster family members’ support for Air Force core values and mission. Prior PAF research examined the attitudes of AF active duty, guard, reserve, and civilian populations regarding specific elements of Air Force culture. This project will draw upon that research to formulate recommendations to enhance airman, wingman, and warrior identities, sense of belonging, and ethical behavior. It will also adapt a pre-tested military family needs survey to administer to Air Force spouses. The instrument will address family needs in this wartime period, barriers and facilitators to seeking help with problems, satisfaction with military and non-military support services, and general attitudes toward the Air Force. The final report will help identify any unmet family needs and best practices for supporting the diverse range of family members. The project team will also recommend ways to address any existing challenges to family members’ ability to endorse Air Force Core Values, sacrifices required to achieve mission goals, and/or their Airmen’s continued service.

Sponsor: AF/A1D
Project Leader: Laura Miller, Lawrence Hanser

Personnel Selection and Screening

This project seeks to enhance human capital acquisition and development through a portfolio of personnel selection and screening studies. Tasks will examine:

Validity of strength aptitude testing. Review current Air Force practice, focusing on the validity, utility, and fairness of the Air Force strength aptitude test. This effort could result in a change in the testing requirement/manhours and a more effective/valid procedure.
Occupational analysis alternatives. Occupational analysis is fundamental to the Air Force personnel system because it identifies and quantifies job requirements for use in training development, personnel selection, promotions testing, and other critical functions. The Air Force needs more robust occupational analysis capabilities to support strategic change, such as competency-based management and AFSC restructuring. However, the Air Force Occupational Measurement Squadron is currently downsizing and looking for ways to reduce its functionality. Concurrently, OSD is mandating job analysis as a part of competency-based management. This study will describe the role of occupational analysis in an Air Force context and the potential effects of the proposed downsizing.
Attrition in enlisted technical training. This task is a follow-on to PAF’s FY08 project that evaluated five priority career fields and recommended ways to reduce attrition. This project will address attrition in three additional priority career fields. It will also present mitigations such as new composites, cutoff scores, and tests; new/revised course administration; new metrics for success; etc. Potential effects could be higher success/lower attrition through training; better retention post-training (due to improved job-person matching), cost savings in recruiting, tech training due to lower attrition, and higher career field experience due to better retention.
Identifying officer potential. PAF will review previously developed constructs of core officership characteristics for practical application in a revised selection instrument. This could help improve officer quality and increase officer retention due to job satisfaction and success.

Sponsor: AF/A1P, AF/A1D, AETC/A2/3
Project Leader: Chaitra Hardison, Carra Sims

Next-generation Total Force Manpower Requirements Mix

This project seeks to assist AF/A1M by developing a suite of manpower models for estimating aggregate manpower requirements, consistent with the AEF construct, to support various scenarios defined for operational availability studies such as OA-08. This project continues FY08 work that included a comparative analysis of existing models and specification of an architecture for a required suite of models. In FY09, the project team will develop and implement new models required for the architecture within the Manpower Planning and Execution System (MPES). The project will also identify major components of past manpower cost growth within the various total force manpower components and identify and evaluate policy alternatives to curb growth. Manpower costs have reportedly outpaced the growth of other elements of the Air Force budget in recent years, reducing funds available for recapitalization and other needs. The project will decompose manpower costs over time, determine which are amenable to control by Air Force policy (e.g., retention) and which are not (e.g., pay tables), and identify the pros, cons, and potential savings of policy alternatives. Finally, to further support an appropriate force mix policy, the project will consider implications of the propensities of reservists to volunteer for mobilization.

Sponsor: AF/A1M, AF/A1P, AF/A1H
Project Leader: Ray Conley, Al Robbert

Business and Operational Case for DMO versus Live Flying in 5th Generation Fighter Continuation Training

This project will recommend an investment strategy to produce a cost-effective mix of live, virtual, and constructive training for fifth-generation fighter aircraft. It continues work initiated in FY08. Tasks include identifying cost factors for assets used in live, virtual, and constructive training, determining training feasibility and effectiveness in these various modes, and recommending appropriate mix of modes at training event and large force exercise levels. An important requirement is to address inputs to the FY12 POM to support an appropriate investment strategy.

Sponsor: AF/A3/5
Project Leader: John Ausink

Selective Reenlistment Bonus Elasticities

This project seeks to predict the impact of the $180M Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB) program on enlisted retention. Results will be used in ongoing analysis of the optimal allocation of bonuses to selected enlisted AFSCs. The study will provide a stronger basis for decisions made more important by declining retention rates and pressures to reduce military personnel costs.

Sponsor: AF/A1P
Project Leader: Edward Keating

Diversity

Building on an FY08 project, this project seeks to reduce or eliminate disparate outcomes in officer accessions and promotions and civilian hiring and promotions. It will investigate the roots of disparate outcomes in accessions, hiring, and promotions. Deliverables include developing benchmarks for active duty and civilian recruiting, and proposing strategies to improve diversity among senior military and civilian personnel. PAF’s FY08 work included acquisition of data from multiple sources to develop variables that expolicy recommendations to reduce or eliminate disparate outcomes.

Sponsor: AF/A1Q SAF/MRD
Project Leader: Nelson Lim

Rated Force Management

In this project, PAF will develop a modeling capability to assess the coordination of components within the initial aircrew training pipeline. A related modeling effort will assess career-long utilization of rated officers in a mission design series (MDS) of aircraft, with particular attention to the effects of rated force management decisions (e.g., absorption levels) and environmental factors (e.g., retention) on availability for Air Land Forces Application (ALFA) and staff tours, opportunities for second and subsequent cockpit tours, gate management, and other related rated career management issues.

Sponsor: AF/A1P, AF/A3O-A
Project Leader: John Ausink