Fiscal Year 2009 Research Agenda

Force Modernization and Employment Program

The Way Forward in Airborne Electronic Attack and Protection

This study will develop a cost-effective plan for managing, maintaining and improving the Air Force (and DoD) airborne electronic attack and protection capabilities. With the retirement of the EA-6, delays in the EA-18G, the Air Force’s increasing emphasis on persistent and deep operations, and emerging threat capabilities, the Air Force and DoD face a window of vulnerability in airborne electronic attack and protection capabilities. Starting with the existing capabilities and plans (Air Force and Navy), the study will determine what should be done to close that gap. Building upon previous PAF work, the project team will evaluate the management of and planned improvements to existing protection and support systems in the context of USAF CONOPs against a modernizing threat. This study will be done at the highest levels of classification required and will produce briefings and documents at the SECRET level with appendices at higher levels of classification, if required.

Sponsor: AF/A3/5
Project Leader: Jeff Hagen, James Chow

The Next USAF Airlifter

This project will help Air Force leaders understand what new airlifter options would be most cost-effective in the 2020-2030 time frame. As C-130s, C-5As and C-5Bs continue to age, and C-17s begin to reach retirement, decisions about future airlift acquisition must be made. Emerging concepts of U.S. Army battlefield operations may require kinds of airlift capability not available today. Specifically, the requirement may be for substantial numbers of FCS vehicles delivered to austere (short and soft) landing areas in contested airspace. R&D decisions, including a potential service life extension program (SLEP) for the C-17s, made now should be based on an overall assessment of what kinds of capabilities will be needed across the spectrum of future airlift requirements. In this project, PAF will integrate new Army concepts of operations, USG and contractor conceptual designs of possible new airlifters, overall mobility requirements assessments, such as the ongoing Mobility Capabilities and Requirements Study 2016 (MCRS16), and cost estimates. This analysis will be an important input into current airlifter R&D decisions.

Sponsor: AMC/CC
Project Leader: David Orletsky, Michael Kennedy

Non-Traditional ISR: Towards Optimal Use

This study will demonstrate how Air Force operations can be enhanced by effectively allocating and integrating sensor data from a diverse set of platforms and sensors across a large number of missions. This is a continuation of an AF/A2-sponsored FY08 study that identified ISR capabilities that are inherent in USAF fighters, bombers and their sensors; the potential for new ways to exploit these capabilities, and warfighting concepts of employment. The FY09 study will focus on how the sensor data from these platforms could further impact operations by assessing the enhanced effectiveness of alternative sortie allocation strategies. In addition, the research will be expanded to include other platforms besides USAF fighters and bombers. Infrastructure and enablers (e.g., data links and communications architectures that support rapid data dissemination and exploitation) that support these concepts will also be identified to highlight the need to address all aspects of the ISR tasking, collection, processing, exploitation and dissemination processes.

Sponsor: AF/A2
Project Leader: Bart Bennett, Jody Jacobs

Space Vulnerability and Dependence

This study will help the Air Force develop a strategy for managing space risk by assessing space vulnerability and dependence. In response to a CSAF request, in FY08 the first phase of this study analyzed the vulnerabilities of SATCOM and GPS and the extent to which Predator, Global Hawk, a CAOC, and the F-35 are dependent upon these space assets. The FY08 work developed an analytic framework and examined only a small part of the possible solution space. The FY09 study proposes to leverage the framework developed in FY08 and extend the analysis of space vulnerability and dependence to other weapon systems, operational environments, and phases of conflict. This additional analysis will provide a more comprehensive foundation for understanding U.S. military dependencies on space, space vulnerabilities, and options to address shortfalls.

Sponsor: ACC/CV, AF/A3O
Project Leader: Lara Schmidt

Improving Air Force Space Acquisition Practices

This study will assess current Air Force space acquisition practices to determine if recent changes have improved the prospects of developing and acquiring high-performance space systems within cost and schedule constraints. The study team will build upon the findings of PAF’s 2004 work that identified indicators of successful space programs. This follow-on project will use those indicators to examine the current space acquisition environment, as well as the risk management approach and practices that are in place for selected space programs. This examination will include: acquisition strategy, prioritization of missions for multi-mission programs, availability of government and contractor personnel, government oversight, and risk management practices. This is the top priority study for AFSPC/CC.

Sponsor: AFSPC/CC
Project Leader: Myron Hura

Assuring That the Combat Air Forces Can Meet Anticipated Demands

This study will inform pending acquisition and force sustainment decisions that will ultimately shape the Air Force’s ability to meet warfighter requirements for combat systems across a spectrum of demands. This ACC-sponsored project will examine Air Force options for meeting future national security demands using both new and existing elements of the Combat Air Forces. This continuing research will examine demands for forces, assess the supply of forces under different assumptions, and compare the relative cost-effectiveness of modernization options.

Sponsor: ACC/CC
Project Leader: William Stanley

Managing and Sustaining the Low Observable Force

This continuing project will help Air Force leaders understand how current and alternative F-22 and planned F-35 maintenance practices, to include manpower and verification of low observable (LO) maintenance, could affect the operational availability and effectiveness of these aircraft. Until the introduction of the F-22, the LO fleet consisted of the F-117A and the B-2, which were planned to fly relatively low sortie rates. In contrast, the F-22 is a high-operations tempo aircraft, expected to fly more than one sortie per aircraft per day, if required. The quality and capability (to include survivability) of a sortie depends on the necessary maintenance being performed to ensure the aircraft performs as needed. The same will be true for the F-35 and in greater numbers. During FY08, the project team gained an accurate understanding of F-22 maintenance practices by analyzing the Air Force’s maintenance databases and interacting extensively with the F-22 maintenance and operations personnel. The project team shared this understanding and resulting recommendations for improvements with the Air Force. In FY09, the project team will assess alternative F-22 maintenance practices and their potential effects on operational availability and effectiveness, relating LO maintenance quality and time to mission (training or deployed) outcomes. The team also will begin to assess the F-35. The F-22 and F-35 results will be integrated and synthesized to provide higher level results and recommendations covering maintenance and operations for LO fleets.

Sponsor: ACC/CC, SAF/AQ, AF/A4/7, 478 AESW/CC
Project Leader: Natalie Crawford

Options for Optimizing the Air Force Munitions Requirements Process (MRP)

This project will evaluate the Air Force Munitions Requirements Process (MRP) [also known as the Nonnuclear Consumables Annual Analysis (NCAA)] and associated processes, interagency relationships, and efforts that support its development. Areas of particular focus for the study will include current types and levels of analyses; cost (dollars & resources) of building the MRP content vs. needs (quality, level of detail, and timeliness) of the customers (OSD, PPBE process, COCOM planners etc.); and a review of the interagency coordination and level of effort required to fulfill DoDI 3000.4 mandates and the Strategic Planning Guidance. Anticipated results of the analysis should help clarify the level of specificity and rigor required to justify USAF munitions investments during budget development, as well as defend the USAF POM/BES in Program/Budget and Congressional Reviews and audits. In addition, the project should identify possible areas for improvement and added efficiency, as well as effects on other USAF logistics positioning and industrial base planning/support processes.

Sponsor: AF/A5R
Project Leader: Donald Stevens

Sizing the USAF Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Force to Meet Future Challenges

This project will examine how the USAF ISR force structure should be sized and structured to meet future intelligence challenges. In this first year of a multi-year effort, the capacity and capabilities of end-to-end USAF intelligence enterprise will be examined across intelligence types including tasking of ISR capabilities, mission execution by collection assets, and data processing and exploitation. This research will ensure that the various capabilities of the end-to-end ISR enterprise are properly matched. Future research will examine shortfalls in peacetime and wartime capacity and capabilities for various demands in regions around the world, and will identify a recommended force structure, force mix, and the best investments to improve USAF ISR capabilities.

Sponsor: AF/A2
Project Leader: Carl Rhodes

Status and Risk Assessments for Aging Aircraft

This project will continue PAF's direct-assistance support for the Air Force's planning processes for the modernization, employment, sustainment and eventual retirement of aging aircraft. The project will help the Air Force acquire, analyze, and use technical information about the relative status, risks, and risk mitigation opportunities that can be expected with the extended service of aging fleets. By examining status and risks across fleets and by selectively exploring decision-relevant details this work will continue to support and complement work by HQ Air Force, the Air Force Fleet Viability Board (FVB), Air Combat Command, Air Mobility Command, and Air Force Materiel Command. The first task for FY09 will be to revise, extend and publish "Challenges and Issues with Further Aging of U.S. Air Force F-15 Aircraft" by including information from: (1) accident-investigation archives; (2) studies by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD/AT&L), the FVB, the Aeronautical Systems Center (ASC); and (3) consultations/research with the Air Force Safety Center, the Air Force Research laboratory, ASC, the F-15 program office, and Boeing. The second task for FY09 will be to assemble and publish materials previously produced in direct assistance to the Air Force's long-range planning process that address longevity issues with aircraft in the KC-135 / 707 families. The FY09 work will provide the Air Force a comparative perspective on the risks associated with service life goals and sustainment plans that have been established for the F-15C, KC-135, E-3 and E-8.

Sponsor: AF/CV, ACC/CC, AMC/CC, AETC/CC, AFMC/CC
Project Leader: Jean Gebman

The Future Roles and Missions for USAF Unmanned Air Systems

This study will help the Air Force identify future roles and missions for UASs in the 2020-2025 force structure and the operational conditions that will shape preferences for using UASs. This is a continuation of a study initiated by a CSAF request in FY08. This project will include four key tasks: (1) develop a framework to assist the Air Force to formulate a vision for its future uses of UASs in joint operations; (2) identify promising future joint UAS-enabled CONOPS; (3) assess the implications of wider UAS employment and suggest ways to overcome potential operational and interoperability hurdles; and (4) assess alternative strategies for acquiring and fielding new UAS-enabled capabilities.

Sponsor: ACC/CC
Project Leader: James Chow

Leveraging U.S. Allies’ Space Capabilities

This project will help the Air Force determine to what extent U.S. allies’ space capabilities can be leveraged to fulfill U.S. space requirements. This study will identify and characterize U.S. allies’ space capabilities, focusing on force enhancement, space situational awareness, and space launch. It will compare allied capabilities with U.S. capabilities, identify warfighting needs that could leverage allied capabilities, and determine how to integrate allied data and services.

Sponsor: AF/A3O
Project Leader: Gary McLeod