Fiscal Year 2008 Research Agenda

Strategy and Doctrine Program:

U.S. Military Operations in “Post Drawdown” Iraq: Potential USAF Roles

This project seeks to help USAF leaders anticipate and plan for new demands on USAF capabilities in a changing operational environment in Iraq. Shifting coalition force levels, mission profiles, and patterns of activity in Iraq will call for different (and possibly higher) levels of air operations. Researchers will work with officers who have recently returned from Iraq to explore new concepts of operations for air forces that may be appropriate for different levels of ground forces and will offer insights about their implications for USAF force levels and posture in theater. The analysis will be “front-loaded” and seek to offer a briefing on initial findings in the first quarter of FY08.

Sponsor: AF/A3/5
Project Leader: Steve Hosmer

The Future of U.S. Nuclear Forces and Potential Adversaries: Big, Little, and Somewhere in Between

This project seeks to assist the leadership of the Air Force and the Department of Defense as they consider options for sizing, posturing, and modernizing U.S. nuclear forces over the next one to two decades. The project will define qualitative and quantitative requirements for U.S. nuclear forces in a world characterized by proliferation and by uncertain strategic relationships between the United States, Russia, and China. It will then develop, cost, and evaluate alternative nuclear forces in light of these requirements.

Sponsor: AF/CV
Project Leader: Jim Quinlivan

Developing an Assessment Framework for U.S. Air Force Security Cooperation Activities

This project seeks to help Air Force planners and program managers better manage USAF security cooperation activities by providing an assessment framework that could be applied to the larger context of DoD and U.S. Government global security cooperation objectives. The USAF, like the other military Services, is required to conduct an annual assessment of the effectiveness of its security cooperation programs and activities. Researchers will develop a systematic, comprehensive assessment framework to supplant the current “anecdotal” assessment process to enable the USAF to determine, with a higher degree of understanding, which programs are having the most significant effects with the respective partner countries and why.

Sponsor: SAF/IA
Project Leader: Jennifer Moroney

Neutralizing Terrorist Adversaries: What Works, What Doesn’t, and What’s Next?

This project seeks to inform resource allocation efforts within the Air Force aimed at enhancing capabilities for combating terrorist and insurgent groups abroad. The project will identify “best practices” in joint counter-terrorist operations since 2001. Researchers will also analyze how terrorist groups might attempt to adapt in response to enhanced counter-terrorist operations. Based on these analyses, the project will aim to identify the types of capabilities across the Air Force that may face growing levels of demand from combatant commanders, and posit future levels of effort.

Sponsor: AFSOC/CC, AF/A5X
Project Leader: David Thaler

U.S. Military Posture in Africa

This project seeks to help USAF leaders to define an appropriate force- and base-posture in and around Africa for the next five to seven years. In FY07, PAF research identified trends and dynamics relevant to U.S. security interests among state and non-state actors in Africa. This follow-on effort will apply those insights to a consideration of future joint and combined activities in Africa and an examination of different basing concepts that could, within relevant political constraints, best support such activities.

Sponsor: USAFE/A5
Project Leader: Adam Grissom

China’s Military Space Power: Future Concepts and Capabilities

This project seeks to help USAF leaders ensure that the United Sates has appropriate space and counter-space capabilities in the future by improving our understanding of the future directions of China’s military space program. Researchers will collect and evaluate recent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) doctrinal writings on military operations in space and review trends in PLA space capabilities. They will also assess ways in which the PLA might realistically seek to interfere with U.S. space assets and judge the potential consequences of such actions.

Sponsor: AF/A2
Project Leader: Roger Cliff

Managing U.S. - China Military Interaction

This project seeks to help strengthen the stability of U.S. - Chinese military interactions in peacetime and crisis. It also seeks to help focus U.S. - Chinese military-to-military cooperation initiatives in the near- to mid-term future. Researchers will examine U.S. and Chinese military postures; activities; and tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) to identify potential flashpoints. Drawing in part on the U.S.-Soviet experience during the Cold War, researchers will then devise possible unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral initiatives to help both sides avoid or contain incidents and increase transparency.

Sponsor: PACAF/A2, A5
Project Leader: Forrest Morgan

Pakistan: Helping to Secure an Insecure State

This project seeks to help improve U.S. policies and military capabilities vis-à-vis the challenges posed by Pakistan: a nuclear–armed state that is pivotal to the fight against radical Islam yet is exhibiting troubling sources of instability. Researchers will assess political, economic, social, and military dynamics within Pakistan; explore the consequences of potential scenarios involving varying degrees of internal upheaval; and suggest strategy options aimed at reducing the probability of unwanted events and enhancing U.S. capabilities to protect our interests in South Asia.

Sponsor: AF/A5X
Project Leader: Keith Crane

Emerging Threats to U.S. Interests in the Greater Middle East

This project seeks to assess trends both within and among key states in the Greater Middle East that are likely to emerge in the wake of drawdown of U.S. combat forces from Iraq. Research will encompass dynamics within Iraq as well as “ripple effects” in the Gulf region and beyond from a range of post-drawdown scenarios. Particular emphasis will be placed on ways in which Iran may seek to capitalize on the situation, both directly and through support to non-state actors. Research will also focus on lessons for airpower from the Israeli experience of fighting Hizballah in southern Lebanon in 2006.

Sponsor: AF/A5X
Project Leader: TBE

USAF Force Structure Options For Major Combat Operations

This project is designed to assist the leadership of the Air Force in developing firm analytical bases for the Combat Air Force (CAF) and selected supporting elements of the Air Force program over the course of the next Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP). This work is intended to inform internal deliberations and planning within the service as well as the articulation of service positions on key questions such as future force structure, modernization priorities, USAF roles in joint operations, and global posture.

Sponsor: AF/A5X
Project Leader: Alan Vick

Continuity and Change in Iran’s Strategy and Foreign Policy

The purpose of this project is to assist the Air Force Intelligence Analysis Agency (AFIAA) in conducting and documenting an in-depth study devoted to developing a clearer understanding of the motivations, perceptions, capabilities and constraints shaping Iran’s foreign and security policies. The study is expected to yield insights relevant to shaping Air Force plans and programs, as well as broader U.S. defense and security policies. The findings will be captured in an unclassified document appropriate for distribution to a wide variety of audiences inside and outside the U.S. government.

Sponsor: AF/A2
Project Leader: Jerrold Green