Fiscal Year 2008 Research Agenda

Resource Management Program

Supporting Air Force Operations in the Era Beyond Iraq: Implications of New Missions, CONOPs, Rules of Engagement, Technologies, and Adversarial Capabilities on Future Air Force Combat Support Capabilities

This project seeks to analyze how support processes, policies, and structures may need to change to meet shifting world conditions as a result of changes in the use of U.S. military power that may occur following the Iraqi conflict, improvements in technology, and advances in potential adversarial capabilities in both nation-state and non-state actors. Increasing responsibility for U.S. power projection; opportunities and challenges associated with technology advances related to cyber, space, and air capabilities; and operations against non-state terrorist groups have broad implications for the USAF support structure, in terms of the types and levels of required capabilities, threats to these capabilities, and the ability to integrate across activities occurring in multiple regions of the world. A key component of this project will be an evaluation of the implications for agile combat support of the assistance the U.S. military provides to friendly governments to enhance their abilities to combat terrorism.

Sponsor: AF/A4/7, AF/A4I
Project Leader: Pat Mills, Bob Tripp

A Strategic Assessment of the Air Force Forces and Air and Space Operations Force Posture

This project seeks to evaluate alternative Air Force Forces (AFFOR) and Air Operations Center (AOC) force postures, extending the AOC posture analysis conducted for AF/A3/5 in FY07. Decisions to implement some of the recommendations of the FY07 work were made at the May 2007 Command and Control (C2) General Officer Steering Group (GOSG) meeting, and the Chairman asked that PAF integrate the results of the current SAF/XCO-sponsored operational architecture work into an integrated analysis and present the results to the GOSG as quickly as practical. Researchers will seek to clarify the relationships and interactions between the AOC and AFFOR activities, both at the Component-Numbered Air Force (CNAF) and Major Command (MAJCOM) level, in order to establish a baseline for resource requirements and investigate other options for providing these capabilities, such as leveraging distributed operations to improve effectiveness and efficiency of Air Force component operations.

Sponsor: AF/A3/5, SAF/XC, AF/A2
Project Leader: Kristin Lynch, John Drew

Weapon System Acquisition and Cost Analysis Umbrella Project

This project will conduct a number of studies to develop better cost-estimating tools for use by the acquisition community and examine the effects of USAF and DoD acquisition policies as they impact weapon system costs, and will continue to strengthen the Center of Excellence for Cost Analysis at RAND. This is a multi-year effort, and each year specific tasks are selected in consultation with the research sponsors. Potential tasks for FY08 include: developing effective incentives for improving performance, cost, and schedule of weapon system acquisition; developing leading indicators of future cost and schedule troubles for weapon systems and information technology (IT) development; analysis of cost benefit tradeoffs in evaluating DoD Enterprise Resources Planning (ERP) and IT projects; accounting for and understanding system and integration complexity in program costs; analyzing weapon system cost growth utilizing Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) data; transitioning Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD) programs to DoD 5000 acquisition programs; and assessing the manpower component of life cycle costs for source selection decisions.

Sponsor: SAF/AQ, AQX
Project Leader: Obaid Younossi

Global Materiel Management Strategy for the 21st Century Air Force

This project seeks to provide recommendations on how to improve enterprise inventory management through optimized forward and regional stockage policies, including decisions regarding inventory levels and retention. This project will provide recommendations to support the inventory strategy for the future Expeditionary Combat Support System (ECSS) modules of Distribution, Transportation, Materiel Management and Contracting. Researchers will also explore best available predictive tools for forward-looking spares forecasting, as well as the feasibility of enterprise management of readiness spares packages. This project supports eLog21 initiatives.

Sponsor: AF/A4/7, A4R, AFMC/A4
Project Leader: Ron McGarvey, Bob Tripp

Expeditionary Combat Support Implications of Survivable Multi-Domain Cyber Capabilities

This project seeks to identify the expeditionary combat support footprint necessary to project cyber forces needed to ensure that communications, ISR, and cyber capabilities can be provided to U.S. and/or allied military forces, should satellite capabilities be limited in these areas. This effort builds on research started in FY07, expanding the analysis in terms of the range of capabilities that could be lost and in the potential options that could be substituted for those capabilities. Researchers will also draw on FY08 PAF Aerospace Force Development Program research addressing in increasing detail, the likely threats to U.S. satellite capabilities over the mid-term and ways to mitigate the potential impacts of these threats, including developing / employing terrestrial, airborne, and secondary space assets to replace capabilities that may be lost.

Sponsor: 8AF/CC
Project Leader: Don Snyder

Understanding the Effects of Joint Taskings on Air Force Agile Combat Support Capabilities

This project seeks to develop an understanding of the effects of joint taskings on Air Force Agile Combat Support (ACS) capabilities and to develop forward-looking readiness measures to reflect how future joint taskings may impact Air Force operational capabilities. Researchers will propose and evaluate options for adjusting ACS capabilities to better accommodate such demands in the future. In Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) contingency operations and subsequent stability operations, the Air Force has been called upon to supplement the capabilities of other services when demands for those activities exceeded supply. For example, Air Force contingency contracting officers supported Army units, the Air Force provided convoy services to move supplies within theater, and Air Force A-10 firepower has been used to substitute for Army artillery capabilities, thus reducing the need for munitions convoys (and associated Air Force personnel). Each of these activities has implications for the Air Force’s ability to meet its contingency requirements.

Sponsor: AF/A4/7, A4/7P, AF/A3/5
Project Leader: Cynthia Cook, John Ausink

Capability-Based Resourcing: Balancing Depot Programmed Equipment Maintenance (DPEM) Accounts to Achieve Desired Operational Performance

This project seeks to develop a framework for evaluating programming trades among the eight Air Force DPEM categories to determine optimum funding levels to achieve desired operational performance, and to quantify risks that would be incurred for funding below that optimal level. This project builds on FY07 research that developed an analytic framework and applied it to two of the eight DPEM categories (aircraft programmed depot maintenance (PDM) and depot engine repairs). It will extend application of the framework to the other DPEM categories, including depot-level software maintenance, other major end items, non- mission-design series (MDS) exchangeables, missiles, area and base support, and storage. This project will also transition the capability-based resourcing tool developed in FY06-07 projects for Basic Expeditionary Airfield Resources (BEAR) assets, vehicles, and support equipment to the Air Force for its use in developing future Program Objective Memorandums (POMs).

Sponsor: AF/A4/7, AF/A4/7P
Project Leader: Don Snyder

RAND Support for Development of Fleet Recapitalization Methodology

The primary objective of the project is to provide analytic support, including cost analysis and econometric modeling, to AFMC/EN in support of development of a definitive and defensible methodology for making recapitalization decisions for legacy fleets. AFMC/EN has also asked RAND to take the lead responsibility for documentation of the recommended methodology to support its implementation.

Sponsor: AFMC/CC; EN
Project Leader: Laura Baldwin

Improving the Management of Operations and Maintenance Contracts for Space Systems

This project seeks to make recommendations for improving the effectiveness and efficiency of AFSPC contracting for space systems sustainment. Contractors provide the vast majority of sustainment for space systems and AFSPC spends well over $1 billion on such activities annually. This project will review the current state of AFSPC contracting for space systems sustainment, including a detailed analysis of contracts, contracting processes, and overarching objectives. Researchers will draw on lessons from previous PAF research on contractor logistics support, purchasing and supply chain management, and sustaining Air Force space systems.

Sponsor: AFSPC/CC
Project Leader: Mary Chenoweth

Economics of Air Force Medical Service Readiness

This project seeks to link AFMS peacetime activities to readiness for its wartime mission to help the Air Force meet its readiness requirements more efficiently. The AFMS is tasked with two large missions: to train and equip for the expeditionary mission, and to provide peacetime care to service members and their families. These missions are not mutually exclusive; however, not all peacetime care equally sustains readiness for the expeditionary mission. Researchers will examine activities-based costing methods and metrics that can be used to better allocate resources/attribute costs to activities, insights from current healthcare practices outside of the Air Force, and alternative structures of care to meet peacetime requirements, while enhancing the ability to train and equip for the expeditionary mission.

Sponsor: AF/SG, DSG
Project Leader: Laura Baldwin

Managing Workload Allocations in the USAF Global Repair Enterprise

This project seeks to develop a decision support tool that can be used for the strategic design of the global repair enterprise, specifically allocation of maintenance capacity/capability across bases, centralized intermediate repair facilities (CIRFs), depots, and contractor facilities, in order to achieve the greatest cost-effectiveness. The Air Force has recently adopted a global enterprise view of logistics, including implementation of RE-21, which offers opportunities to make more effective decisions from an Air Force enterprise perspective, thereby reducing the cost and performance inefficiencies resulting from fragmented local decisionmaking. With the advent of Centralized Asset Management (CAM) and the Global Logistics Support Center (GLSC), the Air Force must be prepared to make strategic repair design decisions across the entire enterprise. This project builds on the concepts developed in PAF’s FY07 Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC) Enterprise Transformation Management project and PAF’s FY05 Continental United States (CONUS) Centralized Intermediate Repair Facility (CIRF) project.

Sponsor: AF/A4/7, AF/A4M, A4R, AFMC/A4
Project Leader: Ron McGarvey, Bob Tripp

Identifying and Managing Risks Associated with Agile Supply Chains

This project seeks to identify the most relevant, likely, and costly future risks to the Air Force’s current and future leaner supply chains and develop a framework for assessing the Air Force’s processes for actively managing its supply chain risks. Private industry and the Air Force, as part of agile combat support, are implementing purchasing and supply chain management practices such as lean processes and inventories, outsourcing, strategic sourcing, and supply base rationalization. In general, these practices, particularly when coupled with the globalization of suppliers, can increase the “brittleness” of supply chains and create other risks. Supply disruptions are of particular concern to the Air Force given the uncertainty of future missions and likely lower density of weapon systems.

Sponsor: AF/A4/7, AF/A4I
Project Leader: Nancy Moore and Elvira Loredo

F-22A Post Multiyear Procurement Options

In FY 2007, RAND Project AIR FORCE was funded by the F-22A PEO to evaluate alternative courses of action (COAs) for the F-22A after the last units of currently programmed production lots are delivered. Options include full shut down of the production line including disposition of tools and personnel, a ³smart² shutdown where necessary assets are procured and stored in such a way as to be available for potential future production, or keeping the line ³warm² by paying for low production rates to maintain capabilities.

The analysis also examined the effects of each COA on the ability of the F-22 industrial base to produce additional aircraft in the future, including the availability of critical materials and equipment with lengthy lead times, as well as the costs associated with each. In FY 2008, the project was extended to develop a program budget that includes estimates of all the below the line costs (program support, program logistics support, other government costs, and such) in addition to the flyaway costs.

Sponsor: AFPEO F-22
Project Leader: TBE