Fiscal Year 2008 Research Agenda

Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program

Air Reserve Component Volunteerism for Activation and Deployment

This project seeks to identify the characteristics of reservists that are associated with higher rates of volunteerism. It will enable the Air Reserve Components (ARCs) to shape their forces and design incentive programs so as to enhance volunteerism. It completes work begun in FY07 but not completed due to very late receipt of refined data sets.

Sponsor: AF/A1, NGB/CF, AF/RE, SAF/MRR
Project Leader: Mike Schiefer, Lionel Galway, Nelson Lim

Building Better Airmen Through Enhanced Force Development Policies and Processes - ADD IN / MERGE - Optimizing SES Performance Management and Development

This project seeks to help the Air Force realize the full potential of its investments in force development (FD) initiatives. After more than a decade of intense efforts to enhance force development, Air Force FD has rich elements (such as its professional military education (PME) programs) but lacks well-validated requirements and deliberate planning to meet them. This project will extend work on a number of fronts, to include enhancing career vectoring processes and other development team procedures, improving career field management processes, conceptualizing a force development policy framework, and addressing other competency development issues. This project also provides continuing analytic support for recurring Performance Review Boards, Succession Planning Boards, and other activities of the Air Force Senior Executive Management Office. These analyses are needed to plan for and set policies governing the distribution of the annual senior executive service (SES) pay pool across pay raises and bonuses, tiers, and rating levels. In a related task, a sizing model for the Civilian Strategic Leader Program (CSLP) will be periodically exercised to determine recommended development targets.

Sponsor: AF/A1D, AF/A1X
Project Leader: Larry Hanser

Assessing Operational Training Resource Needs

This project seeks to help the Air Force balance its demand for experienced pilots with practical limitations on the capacity of operational units to absorb new specialized undergraduate pilot training (SUPT) graduates, including an extension of unit and mission-design series (MDS) absorption modeling to include Special Operations Forces (SOF) systems. The project will also examine linkages between operational capabilities and aircrew continuation training requirements.

Sponsor: AF/A1P, AF/A3O, AFSOC/A3
Project Leader: John Ausink

Optimizing Medical and Dental Officer Accession and Retention Incentives

This project seeks to determine the return on investment in medical officer recruiting and retention incentives. These incentives (pay, bonuses, increased or accelerated promotion opportunities, etc.), which tend to be large and costly, are determined with little or no analytic support. Researchers will adapt a previously-developed dynamic retention model to estimate the effects of medical officer retention incentives and explore similar econometric approaches to estimating the effects of recruiting incentives.

Sponsor: AF/A1P, AF/SG
Project Leader: Ed Keating

Enhanced Testing and Screening for High Value and High Attrition Programs

This project seeks to provide much-needed analytic support for selected testing and screening processes. Following the deactivation of the Air Force Human Resources Laboratory, the Air Force lost most of its capability to perform in-house selection instrument analysis. In a continuing relationship with the primary sponsor of this project, PAF supplements a very limited Air Force in-house staff capability to perform these analyses. Researchers will examine the use of physical fitness standards and other measures to reduce attrition (ranging as high as 80 to 90 percent) in combat-oriented enlisted technical training courses and examine use of the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) rather than the Air Force Officer Qualification Test (AFOQT) for Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) selections.

Sponsor: AF/A1P, 37TG/CC, AETC/A3
Project Leader: Thomas Manacapilli, Chaitra Hardison

Leveraging Core Values and Wingman Culture to Deter Aberrant Behavior

This project seeks to help the Air Force deter aberrant behavior (sexual harassment, assault, religious intolerance, ethical lapses, etc.) through stronger adherence to core values and a culture of wingmen looking out for wingmen. Researchers will build on results of a survey administered to a large Air Force sample in late FY06. This project will include additional analyses and focus groups on selected topics of interest to high-level audiences, will provide a deeper and broader understanding of survey and focus group findings, and will design the next recurring values and behavior survey (to be fielded in FY09).

Sponsor: AF/A1D
Project Leader: Laura Miller

Preserving Range and Airspace Access in the FAA Free Flight Environment

This project seeks to support Air Force analyses of how range and airspace usage for aircrew continuation training will interact with emerging Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) free flight initiatives. Under these initiatives, airspace currently controlled by the Air Force and released selectively for use by commercial and general aviation will be managed more dynamically. To analyze the necessary interfaces, the Air Force needs a robust understanding of airspace demands associated with aircrew continuation training, including required airspace dimensions, frequency and duration of requirements, requirements for proximity to main operating bases, and other similar characteristics. PAF developed such a database for Air Combat Command in 2000-2001 and it is currently being used to support this analysis. To provide a better foundation for that analysis, this project will expand the database to include newer Combat Air Force (CAF) mission-design series (MDS) and weapons, non-CAF MDSs, changes in training requirements, etc. Researchers will also build on recent PAF experience analyzing test range and airspace requirements.

Sponsor: AF/A3O
Project Leader: Skip Williams, Ray Conley

Racial/Ethnic Outcomes in Accessions, Hiring, and Promotions

This project seeks to better understand the roots of disparate outcomes revealed in earlier research and to propose appropriate benchmarks for Air Force programs. Previous research revealed that disparate outcomes occur in many Air Force selection processes and that these outcomes are partially explained by observing indicators of individual quality, development, experience, and other characteristics reflected in personnel data systems. This project will seek to further understand disparate outcomes not accounted for by these data and to recommend policy changes to reduce the disparate outcomes.

Sponsor: AF/A1P, SAF/MRD
Project Leader: Nelson Lim

Estimating Changes in the Desired Mix of Science and Engineering Degree Requirements in the Air Force Acquisition Workforce

The Air Force must insure that it continues to have access to the human capital needed to successfully execute its system acquisition responsibilities. To provide a basis for various workforce management and development processes, a projection of future science and engineering human capital requirements in the Air Force acquisition workforce, over a horizon of about 10 to 20 years, is needed. This project will determine how shifts in current and future systems technologies, or other related factors, affect the desired mix of science and engineering disciplines in Air Force officer and civilian acquisition workforces.

Sponsor: SAF/AOX, SAF/AQR
Project Leader: Mike Thirtle