Fiscal Year 2008 Research Agenda

Force Modernization and Employment Program

Defining and Implementing Cyber Command and Cyber Warfare

The Air Force is in the process of standing-up the Air Force Cyber Command and significant decisions need to be made regarding this new command. This study will work directly with Lt Gen Elder and Maj Gen Lord helping to define the purpose and functions of this new command. This study will consider offensive and defensive network operations, electronic warfare, and some kinetic operations and space operations. It will be done at the appropriate level of classification.

Sponsor: 8AF/CC, AF/A8X
Project Leader: Richard Mesic

Future Air Force Technology

The American way of war involves taking advantage of US strengths of basic science and advanced technology. Maintenance of our superiority is a core mission of the Air Force. Over the last 20 years the Air Force has depended on stealth, precision, and ISR for dominance over its opponents. This study will examine: a) For how long is the Air Force likely to maintain its dominance in these areas? b) What will halt this dominance? c) Are there new technologies that could revolutionize the way the Air Force will fight? This study continues from FY 2007.

Sponsor: AF/CV, AF/A8X, SAF/AQR
Project Leader: Thomas Hamilton

Non-Traditional ISR: Toward Optimal Use

This study will examine how Air Force capabilities can be enhanced by allocating and integrating platforms not normally associated with ISR. This study will: a) Identify ISR capabilities resident on non-traditional ISR assets, b) Assess the effectiveness of particular system / platform combinations, c) Identify synergy between systems, d) Identify possible solutions to communication, processing, and process-tasking-allocation constraints, and e) Assess the ability of non-traditional systems to meet specific ISR demands.

Sponsor: AF/A2
Project Leader: Jody Jacobs, Bart Bennett

New Approaches for Projecting Military Power

Will potential adversaries and operating environments make current Air Force concepts for projecting military power to distant areas increasingly difficult or even impossible? This study will examine a series of vignettes where adversaries have made power projection more difficult (e.g. counter-stealth, cyber attacks, advanced jamming, jamming ISR, counter space, attacks on logistics, slow tempo conflict, etc…). This study will consider U.S. options for dealing with these alternative CONOPs? (Note: In the second quarter of the fiscal year, this project was replaced by A845 at ACC/CC’s request and the remaining 3.0 STE from the original 4.0 STE in A840 were moved to A845.)

Sponsor: AF/CV, AF/A8X, ACC/A8
Project Leader: Jeff Hagen

The Combat Air Forces: Options for Meeting Future Demands

This study will characterize the kinds of demands that the Combat Air Forces must satisfy in the future and assess the ability of the programmed force to meet the demands. It will frame the major options for modernizing the Combat Air Forces and evaluate the effectiveness of alternative options for meeting emerging capability demands. (Note: In the second quarter of the fiscal year, this project replaced A840 at ACC/CC’s request and the remaining 3.0 STE from the original 4.0 STE in A840 were moved to A845.)

Sponsor: ACC/CC
Project Leader: William Stanley and Jeff Hagen

Managing and Sustaining the Low Observable Force

Sortie generation of stealthy fighters is affected by the amount of low observable (LO) maintenance required. This study will examine the implications of:

LO maintenance,
induced LO maintenance,
methods for reducing LO maintenance time, and
methods to determine how much maintenance is enough.

These will be integrated into an operational analysis to understand the effects on sortie rate and survivability under various scenario conditions.

Sponsor: AF/CV, ACC/CC, SAF/AQ
Project Leader: Natalie Crawford

Maintaining U.S. Space Superiority: Focus on Space Vulnerability and Dependence

The U.S. has become highly dependent on space based systems And space superiority is among the U.S.’s most significant advantages. Maintaining space superiority will require large investments in its three components: space situational awareness (SSA), defensive counter space, and offensive counter space. It will also require an overarching operational concept that integrates these three elements. This study will conduct an analysis of these functions and the overarching operational concept to ensure U.S. space superiority. This effort will also include “Red Team” analyses of Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) SSA efforts.

Sponsor: AFSPC/CC, SMC/CC
Project Leader: Myron Hura, Lara Schmidt

Measuring Combat Effectiveness and Integrating Effectiveness Data into the Air Force Corporate Process

This study will develop a methodology for measuring combat effectiveness and determine how best to incorporate this into the Air Force portfolio management process. This methodology will help operators and budget planners understand the impacts of making budget decisions from the perspective of combat effectiveness and operational capability.

Sponsor: SAF/XC, AF/A2
Project Leader: Paul Davis, Richard Hillestad

USAF Intratheater Airlift Fleet Mix Analysis - Follow-on Analysis

PAF delivered the draft final report of the USAF Intratheater Airlift Fleet Mix Analysis (UIAFMA) in December 2007. In it RAND PAF assessed the cost-effectiveness of a wide range of alternative aircraft in the intratheater airlift requirements identified in the 2005 DoD Mobility Capabilities Study (MCS). The future mission requirements for intratheater lift are currently uncertain. PAF therefore assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternatives in a set of missions not included in the MCS. AF/CV requested analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the alternatives in an additional set of missions, which were not included in the original study. This project will conduct this analysis.

Sponsor: AF/CV
Project Leader: Michael Kennedy and David Orletsky

Balancing Traditional Space, Operationally Responsive Space, and Airborne Investments

Traditional space systems are expensive and require substantial time to develop. Once deployed, they are neither easily reconfigured nor modernized. Operationally responsive space (ORS) has the potential to alleviate some of the limitations of current space systems but still has some technical issues. This study will examine the capabilities and synergies among current satellite systems, ORS, and airborne systems. This study will also make recommendations on the key characteristics of future ORS systems and an overall investment strategy.

Sponsor: SAF/US, AFSPC/CC, SMC/CC
Project Leader: Gary McLeod

Status and Risk Assessments for Aging Aircraft

The long-term objective of this project is to assist the Air Force’s acquisition and long range planning processes in acquiring and using technical information about the relative status and risks that can be expected with the extended service of a set of aging fleets. This effort follows work in FY 2007 and prior. For 2008, this project has three objectives: (1) help the Air Force inform both the public and decision makers about the challenges and issues that accompany further reliance on already old aircraft by developing documentation and briefings that are appropriate for public release; (2) share the initial results from the FY 2007 work with the Air Force’s major commands, refine such results in those areas that might add the most value in informing future decisions, and prepare documentation for such refined results; (3) expand the 14-fleet assessment that was developed during FY 2007 to include three F-15 fleets (F-15A/B, F-15C/D and F-15E).

Sponsor: AF/A8X
Project Leader: Jean Gebman

Quantifying the Demand for Surveillance and Reconnaissance in the European and African Theaters

There have been dramatic changes in the security environment in EUCOM over the past two decades. New ISR demands include supporting the fight on terrorism, support for peacekeeping in the Balkans, and insurgent groups in Africa. This study will identify the demand for ISR in the EUCOM AOR and identify the capabilities needed to meet those demands.

Sponsor: AF/A2, USAFE/A2, PACAF/A2
Project Leader: Carl Rhodes

The Future Role of Unmanned Aerial Systems for the U. S. Air Force

Post World War II unmanned aerial systems (UAS), often referred to as drones or RPVs, were used clandestinely and most often for reconnaissance and sometimes for surveillance. There was a resurgence of interest in RPVs in the 1970s and this led to a substantial investment in research and development. Post Desert Storm there was keen interest in UAV’s to do reconnaissance and surveillance. The Predator emerged and was a product of an ACTD. Due to operational requirements for timely weapons employment, the armed Predator was subsequently introduced. The Global Hawk, another ISR UAV that flies at much higher altitudes and greater speeds than the Predator, followed. In parallel with these UAV systems, several smaller UAVs were developed, fielded and employed in combat. PAF will assess the future of UAS, considering the current inventory of UAVs, their operations, capabilities, limitations, and interaction with manned aircraft and space systems. PAF will address questions such as: Given current and anticipated technologies and threats, what is the future of UAS for the Air Force? How do we go from concept to operations? What are the most important acquisition issues? What are the vulnerabilities and countermeasures? What are appropriate battlespace control and peacetime air traffic deconfliction issues and ways ahead?

Sponsor: AF/CC, ACC/CC
Project Leader: Sherrill Lingel and Jim Chow

Basing Options for Unmanned Aerial Systems in the PACOM Area of Regard

This project will identify preferred basing locations for new PACAF UAS ISR assets for operational tasks of interest and assess how to effectively support these assets in the PACOM AOR. Identify promising countries for cooperative UAS basing relationships, limited over-flight/landing rights, and potential intelligence sharing arrangements. Assess options for integrating intelligence products from forward-based assets into the primary Production, Exploitation and Dissemination (PED) architecture, the Distributed Common Ground Station (DCGS).

Sponsor: PACAF/A3
Project Leader: Sherrill Lingel and William Stanley

KC-10 Modernization Roadmap

This project will complete the analysis of alternatives for the KC-10 Aircraft Extension Program (AEP). PAF began this effort as RPN A765, which was funded at a level of one STE in FY07. The U.S. Air Force currently operates a fleet of 59 KC-10 aerial refueling tanker aircraft. These aircraft are approaching 25 years of age and it is expected that significant modernization is needed to keep them viable through FY45.

Sponsor: SAF/AOQ
Project Leader: Michael Kennedy and Anthony Rosello

Strategies for Effectively Employing Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Assets in the European and African Theaters

This project will investigate and provide effective collection management strategies for EUCOM and AFRICOM to employ US and Coalition ISR platforms and sensors. It will identify target sets and missions where ISR efficiencies can be gained via the proper use of limited airborne ISR platforms, National Technical Means, and other ISR assets.

Sponsor: USAFE/CC, AF/A2
Project Leader: Carl Rhodes