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Research Projects
Spatial and Temporal Determinants of Terrorism Risk
Principal Investigator: Darius Lakdawalla
Terrorism experts have long believed that Israel serves as a model for the future of terrorism throughout the globe. As a result, we are studying the Israeli experience with terrorism over the past 50 years, with special emphasis on how terrorism risk fluctuates over time and space. To do so, we have compiled data from the RAND terror chronology, and we have collected additional data on Israel to fill gaps in the RAND database. Our findings so far suggest a fairly regular pattern of risk over time: after every terrorism incident, an area remains at high-risk for one full year, but after that time elapses, the risk starts declining rapidly. We are also quantifying the extent to which terrorists care about the importance of particular areas and are influenced by the difficulty of reaching those areas. For example, at a given point in time, the risk of attack in a locality increases by about 2 percent for each additional 10000 people and by an additional 2 percent for each additional 100 square kilometers; moreover, a locality situated 10 km (approx. 6.25 miles) closer to a terrorist home base suffers a 10 percent increase in risk. On the other hand localities situated closer to military checkpoints enjoy reduced risk; regional capitals face 40 percent more risk; and areas with higher proportions of Jews also face more risk. These findings provide some guidance to policymakers and organizations interested in quantifying the evolution of terrorism risk over time and its distribution across space.
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