Wild Cards

We know with great certainty that there will be surprises in the future. Trying to anticipate those surprises is a fool’s errand, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t include in a list of books related to the future some well-reasoned arguments about some more speculative future possibilities. Picking from amongst the dizzying array of possible choices – including some excellent science fiction – can never be done defensibly. I claim only that each of these three books represent a topic that I found intriguing and that could arguably lead to a world that looks very different from today’s world in some important aspect.

Biomimicry: Innovation Inspired by Nature - 2002

Janine Benyus

Learn more (Perennial)

Biomimicry is basically imitating nature’s processes to solve human problems. Benyus tells of several fascinating possibilities, including “solar cells copied from leaves, steely fibers woven spider-style, shatterproof ceramics drawn from mother-of-pearl, cancer cures compliments of chimpanzees” and others. The basic point is that there is a wide variety of natural processes that produce materials better than the best manmade materials with much less input of energy (basically just sunlight) and materials (generally organic) than man uses. This leaves quite a bit of room for biomimicry to improve on human processes. Perhaps the most intriguing possibility is a re-engineered prairie that would produce about as much grains and legumes as current cropland with much reduced needs for water, machinery, planting, fertilizing, weedkilling, and tending in general, and with much improved erosion control and sustainability. This would come about from perennial, polyculture agriculture rather than the current annual, monoculture model of today.

Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever - 2004

Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman

Learn more (Rodale)

This book, by a noted thinker and futurist (Kurzweil) and a medical doctor, is an exploration of aging and how to increase the human life span. At its base, it is a thorough review of our current understanding of aging and nutrition and “Ray and Terry’s Longevity Program” for increasing one’s life span today. In addition, there are speculations on what the authors call Bridge Two – biotechnology advances that could increase life span further – and Bridge Three – nanotechnology and artificial intelligence advances that could ultimately repair all cellular damage associated with aging and allow humans literally to live forever. The possibility of significantly increasing human life spans has tremendous implications for the future – most seriously in increasing the risks of overpopulation – so this is an excellent handbook of what we know of those possibilities today.

Amish Society - 1993

John A. Hostetler

Learn more (The John Hopkins University Press)

Most writing today on human development presumes that it will only come about through economic development modeled after the industrialized Western world. Are there any other alternatives? If the Amish were a nation would they be considered a developed country or a developing country? Hostetler’s book is recognized as the authoritative account of the Amish society and makes for interesting reading given current views of development. The Amish are a strongly agricultural society and they are remarkably self-sufficient, generally producing a surplus that they sell to outsiders. They use modern knowledge of agriculture, and some Amish communities use modern equipment such as tractors, but not modern fertilizers or pesticides. They accept no government handouts such as farm subsidies, social security or Medicare. They do take advantage of modern medicine, using doctors from outside their communities and paying in cash or barter. Few Amish communities use electricity, telephones, computers, cars, and the like. They cherish their agricultural tradition and by all appearances have made a go of an agricultural society. In what ways is this not a reasonable model for development in some current undeveloped societies?

Apart from their particular brand of religion, the Amish approach has some limits as a model for others. Primarily, they depend on the stability and safety of the U.S. in order to thrive. They originally came to the U.S. because they were being persecuted in Europe. Protection from the U.S. has been important because they would not fight to protect themselves. Another limiting aspect is that the size of their communities is small. That permits them face-to-face communications that are important to the working of the community. If a community gets too big, it splits into smaller communities. Scaling up the Amish example would be difficult in a populous world. The Amish have an average of 6 or more children per family (not sustainable in today’s world) and they limit their children to education through the eighth grade (they say any further education makes a person ‘prideful’). There are limits to the Amish model then for development in the contemporary world, but the Amish are an interesting example of possible alternatives to the Western model of development.