CAPP Newsletter : January 2006
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January 2006 Table of Contents
Message from the Director
CAPP in the News
CAPP News and Events
Happy 2006! The first few months of my tenure as Director of CAPP have been quite eventful. We put a tremendous effort into three conferences in Shanghai during September. In the first, organized jointly with Beijing's Center for International Strategic Studies, the think tank of the top leadership of the Army, we made presentations on a wide range of issues from terrorism to health and held roundtable discussions of them with military, business and government executives.
In the second, organized jointly with China's Center for National Strategic Studies, a group organized at Jiaotung University with support from leading businesses and the PLA Logistics department, we exchanged views with Shanghai's top experts on a wide range of non-traditional security issues, including terrorism, health security, education security, airport security, and supply chain security.
In the third, Jiaotung University's Pacific Forum, Jim Bartis and I made joint presentations with distinguished Jiaotung faculty members on energy security and U.S.-China relations. Just prior to the first conference, we signed a letter of intent with our friends at Jiaotung to pursue joint research endeavors.
We have also developed RAND's India Initiative, a wide-ranging effort to understand the process and implications of India's rise to economic and political prominence. We are convinced that the rise of India is a self-sustaining reality. To understand it, and to compare it with China, RAND has funded studies comparing the demographics of China and India, the infrastructure development of China and India, the education strategies of China and India, the local budget structures of the two countries, the two countries' relations with their neighbors, and the size and impact of India's tech sector. The early parts of these studies are now coming to fruition. Briefly, we find that, due to China's one-child policy, China will gray quickly and India will have a demographic window of opportunity to catch up and surpass China. But India will have to make transformative improvements in its education and infrastructure programs to take advantage of its window of opportunity. India's IT industry is small but has the potential to greatly enhance the productivity of the rest of the economy. The country's leap into the service sector does not, however, mean that India can leapfrog the traditional development of its manufacturing sector; IT progress can enhance the manufacturing sector, not replace it, particularly as a source of jobs.
We are also developing with the Asia Society a Business Leadership Forum that brings together U.S. and Asian executives. The first introduced business leaders from China's Hunan Province and Los Angeles to one another. The second brought Los Angeles executives to a dialogue with ICICI Bank's Lalita Gupte, an articulate business leader who is a member of the CAPP Board.
These initiatives have been possible in substantial part because of the guidance and generosity of a wise CAPP Board led by Ratan Tata. The Board guided us toward the India Initiative. Board members Peter Kwok and Donald Tang made possible the conferences in Washington DC (February) and Shanghai (September). And Donald Tang, also head of the Asia Society of Southern California, has developed the Business Leadership Forum.
Sincerely,
Bill Overholt
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CAPP in the News
Puts & Calls: Concerns over U.S.-China trade deficit are overblown
by Julia F. Lowell | Pittsburgh Post Gazette, October 30, 2005
To hear some critics of U.S. trade with China tell it, China and its army of low-wage workers laboring long hours are like a giant vacuum cleaner sucking up American jobs, American factories, American dollars and ultimately American prosperity and transplanting them across the Pacific. But claims that U.S.-China trade is benefiting China at American expense don't hold up on close examination.
Shareholders Don't Shoot Each Other
by Charles Wolf, Jr. | Wall Street Journal, November 23, 2005
Privatizing Iraq's oil assets, and vesting all citizens with shares, can provide incentive for every Iraqi -- including Sunnis, the insurgency's core -- to view commerce as a better path than violence. Ownership would provide 28 million citizens with a prospective increase in per-capita income of about $5,800, substantially raising their present income. This is unlikely to persuade hard-core terrorists to change course. But turning all Iraqis into stockholders of the nation's oil wealth can win over the support of the bulk of the Sunni population that now backs the insurgency through provision of foot soldiers, intelligence, cover, safe houses or passive acceptance.
Strategic Hedging and the Future of Asia-Pacific Stability
by Evan S. Medeiros | The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2005-06
A New Direction for China's Defense Industry
by Evan S. Medeiros, Roger Cliff, Keith Crane and James C. Mulvenon
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CAPP News
and Events
National Institute for Research Advancement
September 26, 2005
Madoka Nakamura and Tomoyuki Saito from the National Institute for Research Advancement in Tokyo, Japan visited RAND and met with Bill Overholt and Rachel Swanger to discuss how think tanks expand its research areas, how they manage their organization and personnel, how budgeting and finance affects the structure and goals of a non-profit organization and how the organization successfully maintains a high level of research prestige and independence within this structure. They were also highly interested in the Pardee RAND Graduate School and how this school and its students influence research.
Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference
September 26, 2005
Staff of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), among the three most important political organizations in China, visited RAND to discuss policy matters such as political, legal and strategic issues as it relates to the legislative, judicial and executive functions of government. This prestigious delegation was led by Vice Secretary General Li Qingxian and included Zhai Youlin, Xie Chuzhi, Liu Guanfeng, Bai Yuzhang, Zhang Wenshan, wu Yadong, Wei Yuanqi, Wang Yicun, Yuan Dianqun, Zhang Xinxin, Wang Jun, Gao Feng, Qu Wanyu, Hao Xuesheng, Cui Shunnian, Cui Zhiqiang, Yang Chunyan, Wang Suijie, and Wang Qiang.
Vietnam Ambassador to the U.S.
October 10, 2005
Ambassador Chien Tam Nguyen visited RAND's Center for Asia Pacific Policy for a first acquaintance with RAND and an exchange of ideas between RAND and Vietnam. Susan Everingham, Director of International Programs, presented Ambassador Chien with a detailed overview of RAND and its future. The meeting concluded with remarks on how Vietnam and RAND can continue communication.
Shanghai Institute for International Studies
October 12, 2005
CAPP hosted a roundtable discussion on U.S.-China relations and Northeast Asia security with a delegation from the Shanghai Institute for International Studies. The delegation was comprised of Jiemian Yang, Liping Xia, Youkang Du, Xiyuan Jiang, Yuqun Shao and Chengfeng Xiao. RAND participants included Susan Everingham, Bill Overholt, Rachel Swanger, and Scot Tanner from RAND's Washington D.C. office.
Science and Technology Policy Research and Information Center of Taiwan
October 19, 2005
Since being reorganized by Taiwan's National Science Council as a non-profit organization, the Science and Technology Policy Research and Information Center of Taiwan embarked on an international tour to study and learn from fellow non-profit organizations. The ten-person delegation, consisting of Charles Tsai (Director General), Ted Lau, David Tsai, David Maa, Meng-Ping Wang, Angel Chun-Chi Chuang, and Cheng-Lung Chen, visited RAND for an exchange of ideas, learning experiences and further long-term collaboration. RAND faculty present at the meeting included Susan Everingham, Bill Overholt, and Julie Kim, who provided the delegation with a background of RAND and its research. Ann Wang concluded the meeting with a grand tour of RAND's Santa Monica headquarters.
North Korea Information Analysis Bureau
October 26, 2005
Dr. Charles Wolf, with Somi Seong, chaired a roundtable discussion on current relations between North and South Korea with Nam-Joon Kim, Yong Kyu Kim and Sung Hwan Kang from the North Korea Information Analysis Bureau. The group discussed topics in Dr. Wolf's publication "North Korean Paradoxes" such as financial estimates for Korean unification as well as efforts regarding how North Korea might be modernized and normalized through changes in its economy, trade, military, political themes and external relations.
Ambassador Richard Boucher
November 30, 2005
CAPP hosted an intimate meeting with Ambassador Richard Boucher from the U.S. State Department. The Ambassador has served as Spokesman or Deputy Spokesman for six Secretaries of State and came to RAND to discuss U.S. foreign policy with senior RAND faculty, including Bill Overholt, Susan Everingham, Ted Harshberger and Steven Popper.
Asia Leadership Breakfast Series: "Participating in the Rise of India"
December 1, 2005
Asia Society Southern California, in conjunction with RAND, hosted a breakfast for a private briefing with Mrs. Lalita Gupte, Joint Managing Director of ICICI Bank Limited and CAPP board member.
Center for Asia Pacific Policy Advisory Board Meeting
December 1-2, 2005
The bi-annual CAPP Advisory Board Meeting commenced at RAND's Santa Monica headquarters on December 1-2, 2005. In attendance were CAPP Board Chairman Ratan Tata, Roy Doumani, Robert Ferguson, Lalita Gupte, Ambassador James Hodgson, Robert Oehler, George Siguler and Donald Tang.
Presidential Policy Planning Committee
December 12, 2005
A six-person VIP delegation from the Presidential Commission on Policy Planning for the President of the Republic of Korea, headed by Minister Hajoong Song, met with Bill Overholt, Susan Everingham, Charles Wolf and Somi Seong to discuss mid- and long-term government strategies, the evaluation system on government policy, recent studies on social and economic policies and opinions on the relations between South and North Korea as well as between the two Koreas and the United States.
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