Nation-Building and Diplomacy
Selected Research, Commentary and Congressional Testimony
The Day After... in Jerusalem: A Strategic Planning Exercise on the Path to Middle East Peace — Nov. 6, 2009
Starting in 2008, the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy conducted a series of exercises to help the new U.S. administration address the challenges of the Arab-Israeli conflict (and of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in particular) as a key component of the broader effort to secure stability in the Middle East.
Full Document
International Affairs Research Area
Our Man in Kabul — Nov. 5, 2009
Now that Karzai has been declared the election's winner, the breach with Abdullah—the man most responsible for his original rise to power—could have very dangerous consequences. The last thing Karzai, NATO, and the United States can afford is the emergence of a renewed northern alliance, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Karzai's Second Term a Test for International Community — Nov. 2, 2009
Afghan President Hamid Karzai begins his second term with his country on the brink of chaos. To establish control, two major elements of reform are necessary, writes Terrence Kelly.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Keeping Our Allies on Our Side in Afghanistan — Oct. 27, 2009
'There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies," observed Winston Churchill in 1945, "and that is fighting without them." It's a truth worth recalling as the Obama administration nears crucial decisions on Afghanistan, write Leo Michel and Robert Hunter.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
China: Self-Perception vs. Outside Perception — Oct. 2, 2009
China's challenge in defining the security role it will play in the region and the world in the coming years is to harmonize its own view of its security intentions with that of the outside world, writes Michael Lostumbo.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Finding a Solution to Iran — Sep. 30, 2009
The revelation of a secret nuclear facility near the holy city of Qom, and the likely existence of other advanced facilities across Iran, makes more urgent the need for a quick solution to the nuclear impasse, writes Alireza Nader.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
G-20 Growing Pains — Sep. 24, 2009
The increasing importance of the G-20 summits is testimony to the growing role emerging states now play in managing the international economy. But integrating these newcomers into the global community is unlikely to be straightforward or simple, writes Lowell H. Schwartz.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
The Right Move in Europe: Improved Opportunities with NATO, Russia — Sep. 22, 2009
Obama's decision to alter course on missile defense was the right choice. Those who call it a capitulation to Russia are wrong, and it plays into Russia's hands to portray the decision in that manner. But the change of course will have to be complemented with more appropriate initiatives, writes Christopher S. Chivvis.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Real Threats, Real Fears, Real Defenses — Sep. 21, 2009
Critics of the Bush administration missile defense plans for Central Europe have charged that the U.S. would be deploying defenses that did not work against a threat that did not exist. It would also defend countries not threatened by Iran, while leaving Iran's more likely victims entirely uncovered, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
China's International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification — Aug. 27, 2009
China is a global actor of significant and growing importance, now integrated into the international system and altering that system's dynamics. The complexity of China's ever-changing global activism raises questions about its intentions and the implications for global stability and prosperity.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
How Russia Can and Can't Help Obama — Aug. 26, 2009
In hindsight, KGB analysts and Soviet officials were extraordinarily prescient about the perils of Islamist terrorism and the fallout from the Afghan jihad. But could Russia, for all its faults and foibles, be a more valuable counterterrorism partner today, asks Brian Michael Jenkins.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
Corporations and Counterinsurgency — Aug. 25, 2009
Large multinational corporations (MNCs) can play significant roles in zones of violent conflict, including in counterinsurgency. While the activities of MNCs aimed at shaping their violent environments may only be intended to protect their infrastructure and personnel, they can have less-than-benign consequences.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
World Economic Recession Unlikely to Have Lasting Geopolitical Consequences — Jul. 30, 2009
Will the current global economic recession have long-term geopolitical implications? Assuming that economic recovery begins in the first half of 2010, lasting structural alterations in the international system — a substantial change in U.S.-China relations, for example — are unlikely. This is because economic performance is only one of many geopolitical elements that shape countries' strategic intent and core external policies.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Russia and the Perils of Personal Diplomacy — Jul. 6, 2009
As President Obama takes part in his first U.S.-Russian summit, a good deal of media attention has focused on whether he will be able to establish good personal relations with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, though the preoccupation with personal relations has rarely proved successful, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Iran's Real Winners: The Revolutionary Guards — Jun. 22, 2009
Despite the huge protests on the streets of Tehran, Iranian President Ahmadinejad has once again triumphed. A relative newcomer to Iranian politics, his re-election and subsequent crackdown on the demonstrators suggest that the Iranian political system is moving in a new and potentially dangerous direction, writes Alireza Nader.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Living with the Outcome: Elections in Lebanon — Jun. 5, 2009
Lebanon is scheduled to hold elections June 7, and the pro-Western political alliance favored by the United States may lose. If it does, the Obama Administration should not consider the result a triumph for Hezbollah, but a challenge, write Aram Nerguizian and Ghassan Schbley.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Rethink Washington's 'War of Ideas' — Jun. 2, 2009
The term "Global War on Terror" is now out of favor in the government lexicon, and new drug czar Gil Kerlikowske wants to end the use of the phrase "War on Drugs." It's not that opposing terrorism or drugs is no longer important, or that operations will be substantially changed. But how we talk about things matters, writes Christopher Paul.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
A Better Bargain for Aid to Pakistan — May 30, 2009
All told, since 2001, the United States has spent about $12 billion to help Pakistan. Yet last month, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared Pakistan a "mortal threat" to international security. Washington needs to strike a far better bargain for its billions, writes C. Christine Fair.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Countering the Military's Latest Fad: Counterinsurgency — May 17, 2009
When Defense Secretary Gates announced that he was dismissing Gen. McKiernan as the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan and replacing him with Lt. Gen. McChrystal, he signaled his support for an intellectual movement that in a few short years has come to dominate military thinking in Washington, writes Celeste Ward.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Assessing Mexico's Narco-Violence — May 14, 2009
Drug-related violence in Mexico has more than doubled over the past 18 months, with a sharp increase in crimes that can only be understood as atrocities. The executions, assassinations, and decapitations may all seem wanton and senseless. But this violence actually has a purpose, write Benjamin Bahney and Agnes Gereben Schaefer.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
NATO After the Summit: Rebuilding Consensus — May 6, 2009
In testimony presented before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on European Affairs, Robert E. Hunter sets forth the need for a revised transatlantic compact with engagement beyond Europe's borders, efforts to reinvigorate the NATO-Russia Council, and the development of non-military activities.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
European Union at Cross Purposes in Kosovo — Apr. 27, 2009
Of all the international actors involved in Kosovo right now, the European Union has by far the most at stake. It is also in the strongest position to remedy the situation. Sadly, it is too divided over Kosovo's declaration of independence over a year ago to take effective action, writes Christopher Chivvis.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Who Has the Will to Fight Piracy? — Apr. 21, 2009
The recent French and American rescues of hostages held by pirates off the coast of Somalia were necessary and proper. No one believes these actions will end piracy. But unless we impose risks on the pirates—which means taking some risks ourselves—piracy will certainly flourish, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Obama's Turkish Dilemma — Apr. 6, 2009
President Obama's visit to Ankara this week highlights Turkey's growing strategic importance to the United States - and a high stakes dilemma for the President and for U.S. strategic interests, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Afghanistan Is NATO's Most Important Challenge — Apr. 3, 2009
NATO has a useful future. But it will require bridging the gap in perceptions between the U.S. and most of the European allies about what is important for security and what to do about it. Both sides have to start seeing the other's interests and concerns; and the time to make those commitments is at the NATO summit, writes Robert E. Hunter.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan — Mar. 26, 2009
In testimony before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs former Ambassador to Afghanistan James Dobbins outlines the steps the Obama administration should take to secure the nation as the situation there worsens.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Ultimate Exit Strategy — Mar. 26, 2009
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has described the upcoming high-level conference on Afghanistan at The Hague as a "big-tent meeting, with all the parties who have a stake and an interest in Afghanistan." With the situation in that country growing more precarious by the day, those attending this meeting must also think big, write Karl F. Inderfurth and James Dobbins.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Implications for U.S. of the Saudi-Iranian Struggle for Influence in the Middle East — Mar. 17, 2009
Saudi Arabia and Iran have long been rivals in the Middle East, but the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and the ongoing war in Iraq have increased tensions between the two states. This study analyzes the Saudi-Iranian struggle for influence in Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Lebanon and Palestine and its implications for U.S. interests.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
U.S.-NATO Immersion Course — Mar. 10, 2009
At a major conference in Munich last month, Vice President Joseph Biden underscored the U.S. determination to rebuild strong and productive relations with its European allies. No issue matters more than Afghanistan, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
To Talk With Iran, Stop Not Talking — Mar. 3, 2009
If the dominant imperative is to stop Iran from getting the bomb, every month counts. Perhaps the simplest -- and certainly the quickest -- way to launch a dialogue with Iran, and the one least likely to play unhelpfully into the upcoming Iranian election, would be to simply stop not talking to Tehran, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Power to the People: Rebooting Conventional Diplomacy — Feb. 27, 2009
The story of how President Obama engineered a grass-roots campaign, mobilizing formerly disengaged U.S. citizens with new media and new technologies, has reached almost mythological proportions. Less well known is the story of similar grass-roots efforts emerging in local communities around the world, write Cherl Benard and Edward O'Connell.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan — Feb. 26, 2009
In testimony presented before the Senate Armed Services Committee, James Dobbins suggests steps the new Administration and its allies should consider in reviewing Afghan policy.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century — Aug. 25, 2008
Historical examples and the analysis of two modified Delphi exercises augment an examination of approaches to escalation management within the demands of today’s security environment and its attendant threats involving not only long-standing nuclear powers, but also insurgent groups and terrorists.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
DoD Should Consider Nonmilitary Means to Advance U.S. National Security Interests — Aug. 13, 2008
The nature of recent challenges and the types of missions the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has undertaken highlight the need for training DoD personnel in the simultaneous use of different types of tools, military and otherwise.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Testimony on America's Need of a New Grand Strategy, Shift in National Security Policy — Jul. 15, 2008
The unanticipated costs and unpredictable outcomes of the War on Terror necessitate a reevaluation of national security strategy, including a shift away from policies of preemption and democratization and towards nation-building with its consequent need for a rebalancing of political and military power.
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Related Testimony
Breaking the Failed-State Cycle — May 27, 2008
The predominant threat to U.S. security in the 21st century comes not from the actions of opposing countries but from the fallout of collapsing ones. The world’s leading states can and should help the citizens of failed states by integrating efforts to reduce violence, advance the economy, and reform government.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Afghanistan: From Chaos and Corruption to Sustainable Success — May 23, 2008
Since the 2002 U.S.-led attacks in Afghanistan, the country has
struggled to stabilize their government and society. RAND co-hosted a
conference attended by experts in academia, government and NGOs from
over 20 nations to discuss the need for a strategic approach to
Afghanistan's attempts at nation-building.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Developing U.S. Civilian Personnel Capabilities in State-Building Operations — Mar. 19, 2008
Recent U.S. experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have shown that engaging in stability and reconstruction operations is a difficult and lengthy process that requires appropriate resources. A framework for improving U.S. civilian personnel and staffing programs for state-building efforts could help.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
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