Middle East Security and Stability
Selected Research, Commentary and Testimony
Afghan Progress Spotty but Hopeful — Apr. 29, 2008
As NATO's role in Afghanistan was debated in Bucharest recently, the bad headlines continued rolling in. And yet, on the ground, there is equally compelling evidence that the efforts of the international community are making a difference, write Obaid Younossi and Peter Dahl Thruelsen.
Commentary
International Affairs Research Area
A House of Tribes for Iraq — Apr. 25, 2008
Many western notions of governance may be struggling to take hold in Iraq, but one that deserves a close look is the effort to create what would amount to a unique upper legislative body: The House of Tribes, write Theodore Karasik and Ghassan Schbley.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Good Morning, Syria! – Time to Revisit Our Axis of Evil List? — Apr. 22, 2008
The time may come to start contemplating whether Syria might follow the example of Libya and make its way off the axis of evil, write Cheryl Benard and Ed O'Connell.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Iraq Needs an Ownership Surge — Apr. 13, 2008
The military surge in Iraq has created conditions favorable for long-term stability. Now a new approach to economic reconstruction is needed to sustain the hard-fought military gains, write Clare Lockhart and Joseph Konzelmann.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Real Roles, Missions Debate — Apr. 7, 2008
The United States can and should move beyond a "one size fits all" approach to sizing military forces toward a construct that shapes each service for the types of operations it is actually expected to conduct in the future, write Andrew Hoehn and David Ochmanek.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner — Apr. 10, 2008
Turkey has long been an important ally, but Ankara is increasingly behaving more independently and assertively in ways that must factor into future U.S. planning for the region.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Iraq's Sunni Time Bomb — Apr. 3, 2008
While the recent fighting in Basra and Baghdad has alerted many Americans to the danger that Shiite-on-Shiite violence poses to our goals in Iraq, it should not divert our focus from another looming threat: that the Sunni tribesmen who have sided with the American-led coalition may turn against us, writes Matthew Sherman.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
America is Making a Difference in Eastern Afghanistan — Apr. 1, 2008
[The United States] has made some progress against the Taliban and other insurgent groups in eastern Afghanistan, and created a window of opportunity to spread this elsewhere, writes Seth G. Jones.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Danish Cartoons Doom Us All — Mar. 21, 2008
Like two years ago, last week's rage in Pakistan over reprints of cartoons and a forthcoming Dutch film that insult Islam's holy book once again entangles Muslims and the West in a fury over freedom of speech, writes Farhana Ali.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Developing U.S. Civilian Personnel Capabilities in State-Building Operations — Mar. 19, 2008
Recent U.S. experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq have shown that engaging in stability and reconstruction operations is a difficult and lengthy process that requires appropriate resources. A framework for improving U.S. civilian personnel and staffing programs for state-building efforts could help.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
A Post-Musharraf Pakistan Policy — Mar. 10, 2008
The United States no longer can afford to blindly support Musharraf. Hence, America is moving toward defining a new policy direction for Pakistan, and for good reason, writes Farhana Ali.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Why We Need to Nail Osama — Feb. 27, 2008
[K]illing or capturing bin Laden remains a vital national and, indeed, international priority. Not only is it important — it is worth devoting significant resources and making major tradeoffs to do so, writes Elbridge Colby.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
To Support Democracy in Pakistan — Feb. 24, 2008
The Pakistani people have seized an important democratic opportunity by voting decisively against retired general President Pervez Musharraf and the Islamist parties. The U.S. would be wise to support this action financially, diplomatically and politically, writes C. Christine Fair.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
International Perspectives on Interagency Reform — Jan. 30, 2008
In testimony presented before the Armed Services Committee, Nora Bensahel discusses the lack of civilian capacity in stability and nation building operations, which has led to an overreliance on military forces.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Not That Bad a Legacy, After All — Jan. 17, 2008
George W. Bush may leave a positive foreign policy legacy after all. A year ago this would have seemed difficult to credit... [Y]et over this period, Bush has put in place a series of more pragmatic policies from which even a Democratic successor will have a hard time moving away, writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
U.S.-Pakistan Relations: Assassination, Instability, & the Future of U.S. Policy — Jan. 16, 2008
In testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia, Christine Fair discusses the future of U.S.-Pakistan relations, the likelihood that Pakistan's leadership will vigorously pursue counter-terrorism objectives, and more.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
Long-Term Instability? — Dec. 31, 2007
The tragic assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto casts a dark shadow across Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state with a long history of militarism and militancy and may auger a deeper and irreversible slide into Islamist violence, writes Christine Fair.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
U.S. Should Take Advantage of Improved Security in Iraq to Withdraw — Dec. 2, 2007
Because security in Iraq is improving, the United States now has a chance to achieve the best realistic outcome of its unfortunate invasion and occupation: extricating the bulk of U.S. forces without making things worse, writes David C. Gompert.
CommentaryNational Security Research Area
Army Resource Gaps Can Be Filled by Building Partner Capabilities — Nov. 6, 2007
Ongoing operations and emerging mission requirements place a heavy burden on U.S. Army resources, resulting in capability gaps that the Army might fill by building appropriate capabilities in allies and partner armies through focused security cooperation.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Negotiating with Iran — Nov. 7, 2007
In testimony presented before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, James Dobbins notes that it is time to speak to Iran, unconditionally and comprehensively.
Full DocumentInternational Affairs Research Area
The Right Way to Withdraw — Oct. 14, 2007
Had we not invaded Iraq, there are any number of better things we could do to fight terror with the billions the administration plans to spend in Iraq this year. [But w]e're involved too deeply in Iraq and Afghanistan to exit suddenly without fixing our mess, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Ready for Another Mideast War? — Sep. 20, 2007
The Bush administration has acknowledged that Israel attacked Syria last week, but has not given any indication that the United States sought to prevent it, or discourage a repetition, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
A New Tact on Iraq — Aug. 24, 2007
As the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States approaches, al Qaeda appears to be gaining strength. America remains on alert. As Brian Michael Jenkins states in this commentary for the Washington Post, it's reasonable to wonder whether, how and when this conflict will end.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
Are the Sunnis Changing Sides — Aug. 17, 2007
Sunni insurgents are coming to the view that they cannot successfully resist both the U.S. and the Shiite-dominated government at the same time. Increasing numbers of Sunni fighters in Anbar Province are therefore preparing for a tactical accommodation with the less dangerous enemy, the U.S., writes James Dobbins.
CommentaryInternational Affairs Research Area
Blair's Project for a New Palestine — Jul. 7, 2007
[Tony] Blair has the thankless task of helping Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas build institutions for a viable state, following Hamas's military takeover of Gaza, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Iraqi Refugee Challenge — Jun. 28, 2007
Better relations with [Iraqi refugee children] and the rest of the Arab world's "youth bulge" should be a high priority for American foreign policy and assistance, writes Kristin Cordell.
Commentary
Risks and Riddles — Jun. 01, 2007
The Soviet Union was a puzzle. Al Qaeda is a mystery. Gregory F. Treverton writes about why we need to know the difference.
Commentary
Insights on Joint Urban Operations from Afghanistan and Iraq — May 25, 2007
Today's strategic environment implies an obligation to preserve innocent life when possible and to rebuild that which war destroys. Various tools can help better enable military and civilian alike to meet these objectives by more effectively conducting urban combat and restoration.
Full DocumentNational Security Research Area
Afghanistan: Why Canada Should Stay — May 07, 2007
There is a growing movement in Canada to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, illustrated by such newspaper headlines as: "Is it time to go?" and "Canada must leave Afghanistan." Such a move would be a tragic mistake, writes Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
The Counterinsurgency Fight: Think Globally, Lose Locally — Apr. 27, 2007
Confronted with insurgents in some countries and a true global terror network operating in others, some people want to view these opponents as a monolithic force… The belief is also harmful, for four major reasons, write James T. Quinlivan and Bruce R. Nardulli.
Commentary
Easing U.S.-Iran Tensions — Apr. 19, 2007
Iran's decision to release the 15 British sailors and marines it captured is a victory for common sense on both sides. Now what? Can this victory begin the process of de-escalating tensions and seeking some basis for accommodation, not just between Britain and Iran, but between the United States and Iran as well?, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Who Lost Iraq? — Apr. 16, 2007
As Iraqi and American public opinion pushes the United States inexorably toward the exit, a debate over who lost Iraq is already gaining momentum. There is no shortage of culprits, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
The Taliban Threat is Not Just America's Burden — Apr. 12, 2007
When President George W. Bush meets European Union leaders for the annual US-EU summit in Washington on April 30, Afghanistan will be high on the agenda. This offers the EU the chance to move beyond rhetoric and take action to show it can be a credible force in the world, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Building an Army of Believers: Jihadist Radicalization and Recruitment — Apr. 05, 2007
In testimony presented before the Committee on Homeland Security Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment, Brian Michael Jenkins discussed reducing the radicalization and recruitment that support the jihadist enterprise.
Testimony
Cold War Offers Lessons on Engaging with the Muslim World — Mar. 26, 2007
Just as it fought the spread of Communism during the Cold War, the United States must do more to develop and support networks of moderate Muslims who are too often silenced by violent radical Islamists.
Full Document
News Release
Iraqi Security Forces: Defining Challenges and Assessing Progress — Mar. 28, 2007
In testimony presented to House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Olga Oliker discussed the Iraqi security forces, their status and development to date, and what we might want to know in the future to better assess progress.
Testimony
Flagging Ally: Pakistan's Lapses Are Hurting the War on Terror — Mar. 18, 2007
Vice President Dick Cheney's recent blunt warning to Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to crack down on terrorism signals a growing consensus among U.S. policy-makers that Pakistan needs to do more to counter international terrorist groups operating on its soil. But there is still no consensus and few specifics on the most effective strategy, write Seth G. Jones and John Gordon IV.
Commentary
Iran's Covert War in Iraq — Mar. 16, 2007
There are four critical differences between the case against Iran today and the WMD estimates involving Iraq in 2003. All these differences combine to build an overwhelming case for the accuracy of the reports about Iranian involvement in Iraq, writes Rick Brennan.
Commentary
My Enemy's Enemy — Feb. 27, 2007
Somehow, the United States has maneuvered itself into a position where most Shiite and most Sunni, most Arabs and most Persians alike seem to regard America as their enemy, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
America's Turkey problem — Feb. 23, 2007
As America struggles to stabilize Iraq while fighting rages, the last thing it needs is to become embroiled in a new crisis with Turkey. But that is where Washington appears headed if Congress passes a resolution accusing Turkey of committing genocide against Armenians from 1915 to 1918, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Suat Kiniklioglu.
Commentary
Iraq's Jobs-for-Peace Mirage — Feb. 11, 2007
As the wisdom of President Bush's proposed “surge” of US troops is debated across the US and around the world, another question about the US President's new policy to avert all-out civil war there is coming to the fore. Can using US funding to reopen Iraqi state-owned enterprises get young men to abandon the insurgency and sectarian militias?, writes Keith Crane.
Commentary
America's Long Wars — Feb. 01, 2007
It is clear that U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, along with his leadership team in the Pentagon, will devote the preponderance of their time contending with the "long war" against radical Islam... But the "long war" is not so much a traditional conflict with discrete battles composing continuous, identifiable "campaigns. It is a long-term strategic challenge that will demand all elements of U.S. statecraft, write Andrew R. Hoehn and David A. Shlapak.
Commentary
Afghanistan's Local Insurgency — Jan. 31, 2007
The rising violence and the near certainty of a Taliban spring offensive have triggered calls for an increase in U.S. military forces in Afghanistan. But a military strategy is not likely to succeed, writes Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
Put Iraqi Insurgents Out of Business — Jan. 29, 2007
The militias and insurgent groups that have turned Iraq into a killing field can't function without money. So as President Bush pursues a new war strategy, he should make sharply reducing the flow of money to them a top priority. If successful, this effort could give Iraq's government a fighting chance to curb the violence, writes Keith Crane.
Commentary
No Need to Expand U.S. Army — Jan. 26, 2007
President George W. Bush and Defense Secretary Robert Gates have announced plans to increase the size of the U.S. Army and Marines by 93,000, at a cost of $10 billion a year. At first blush, this seems to make sense. After all, it is now generally agreed that the United States has too few ground forces to meet its needs in Iraq without sapping its ability to defend American interests everywhere else. But on closer examination, the case for expanding the Army and Marines has not yet been made, writes David C. Gompert.
Commentary
Coordination Could Breed Control in Iraq — Jan. 24, 2007
[T]oo often, the different branches of the U.S. military and the U.S. government in Iraq have failed to effectively coordinate their activities with each other and with their Iraqi counterparts, writes Austin Long.
Commentary
A Bad Plan for the Middle East — Jan. 17, 2007
President George W. Bush's most recent address to the American people on Iraq may be the scariest presidential message since Ronald Reagan announced that he had launched a nuclear strike against the Soviet Union. Reagan was just kidding. Bush is not, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Old Front Against Terrorism — Jan. 14, 2007
It would be premature to portray Ethiopia's swift defeat of the Islamist forces in Somalia as a victory in the global war on terror, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Europe's Afghan Test — Jan. 02, 2007
Within the limits of European politics and attitudes, allies can serve their own interests as well as America's by radically stepping up their collective commitment to Afghanistan. Here, there is no ambiguity and there should be no ambivalence, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Pakistan's Tribal Deals Aren't Working — Dec. 28, 2006
In an effort to deal with the growing terrorist and insurgent sanctuary in Pakistan, government officials have negotiated peace deals with local tribal leaders who have agreed to crack down on militants. But this strategy, which has been supported by some in the United States and Europe, is likely to failn, writes Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
Afghanistan Needs Help — Dec. 19, 2006
The people of Afghanistan received good news recently when the leaders of the 26 nations in NATO issued a joint statement at their summit meeting that said: "Contributing to peace and stability in Afghanistan is NATO's key priority." Unfortunately, those words alone won't solve the myriad problems of Afghanistan. They must be followed by action, writes Obaid Younossi.
Commentary
No Law and No Order — Dec. 01, 2006
Olga Oliker demonstrates that the Iraqi army and police are far less prepared than numbers and coalition reports suggest.
Commentary
Grand Strategy for the Middle East — Nov. 19, 2006
Debate in the United States about the war in Iraq is seemingly about strategy but is really about tactics, as America struggles to control the damage without changing its basic objectives and policies in the Middle East. A strategic reassessment is needed to find a way to deal not just with Iraq, but with the other interrelated problems in the region, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
The EU Should Put Up or Shut Up in Afghanistan — Nov. 18, 2006
Time is running out for success in Afghanistan. The NATO summit in Riga of November 28-29 may be the last chance to pull that country back from the brink. NATO assumed responsibility for providing security for all of Afghanistan in October. While about 8,000 of the 20,000 United States troops in Afghanistan operate independently, the rest have joined the most ambitious military venture in NATO's history, the International Security Assistance Force, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
Winning Back the Turks — Nov. 14, 2006
Once considered one of America's closest allies, Turkey today is engulfed by growing anti-Americanism. A recent survey by the German Marshall Fund found that only 7 percent of Turks polled approved of U.S. policies, while 81 percent disapproved. The poll found that 56 percent of the respondents thought that U.S. leadership was "very undesirable," writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
Commentary
Crafting Terror Strategy — Oct. 18, 2006
A successful strategy in the war on terror demands convincing Muslims around the world that their interests are congruent with U.S. interests and not with those of the terrorists. Actions that conflict with this objective, whatever their short-term tactical value, should be avoided, write David Ochmanek and Lowell Schwartz.
Commentary
Terror War Uncertainties — Oct. 06, 2006
The only certainty over the next five years is that events now unpredictable will profoundly affect the trajectory of the Global War on Terror.
Nonetheless, we can attempt to look beyond the headlines and discern some long-range trends that can give us some idea about what the state of this unconventional war will be on Sept. 11, 2011, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
What Went Wrong in Iraq? — Sep. 28, 2006
American military and diplomatic leaders have swung back and forth between various strategies to confront the hostile forces arrayed against them in Iraq. But despite recent U.S. initiatives, the fighting there only continues to intensify, particularly in Baghdad, writes Ed O'Connell.
Commentary
State of Terrorism Address: What Would Osama Bin Laden Say to Jihadists Five Years Later? — Sep. 11, 2006
Osama Bin Laden has issued many audio- and videotapes to spread his message. But what might he tell his most loyal followers about the state of the global war against the infidels five years after 9/11?, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Safer, But Not Safe — Sep. 11, 2006
Five years after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the global jihadist enterprise continues to pose the most immediate threat to U.S. national security. Its destruction must remain America's primary objective, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
U.S. Mideast Setbacks — Sep. 01, 2006
The United States has suffered its second major setback in the Middle East—both at least partly self-inflicted and party due to faulty intelligence. The first was the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath. The second was failing to judge the course of the war in Lebanon and, once it was clear that the most advanced technology could be offset by the some of the most primitive—asymmetrical, guerrilla warfare—failing to stop the war before death and destruction rained down on Lebanon and Israel for weeks, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Mideast Peace: Bush Has a Job to Do — Aug. 30, 2006
The Arab-Israeli conflict has bedeviled every U.S. president for more than a half-century. President George W. Bush now has an opportunity to bring it to an end. This is in the interests of Israel, the Palestinians, and everyone in the Middle East who prefers peace to war. From the perspective of the United States, it has become a strategic imperative, writes Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Lebanon's Sectarian Aftershocks — Aug. 08, 2006
In the volatile Middle East, America's efforts to build friendships have often created new enemies. Many of the divided religious and ethnic factions living in the region view any U.S. move to support one group as a hostile act toward that group's opponents, write Fred Wehrey and Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Commentary
Bombing Boon… — Jul. 30, 2006
Israel's fierce response to rocket attacks and kidnappings by Hamas and Hezbollah is a consequence of the Jewish state's strategy for achieving peace with its neighbors. Diplomatic efforts to end the fighting need to take this Israeli strategy into account to have a serious chance of success, write David Aaron and Paul Miller.
Commentary
Protecting U.S. Interests In the Middle East — Jul. 19, 2006
With fighting raging in Gaza, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan, American interests are under immediate threat across much of the greater Middle East. Each day requires U.S. officials to make new tactical decisions to deal with rapidly changing developments, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
Islam and the West: Searching for Common Ground: The Terrorist Threat and the Counter-Terrorism Effort — Jul. 18, 2006
In testimony presented to the Committee on Foreign Relations, Bruce Hoffman addresses the terrorist threat and the counter-terrorism effort, focusing on how the U.S. can ensure that its assessments and analyses of the threat are based on sound, empirical judgment and that its counterterrorism policy is sufficiently comprehensive, well crafted and effectively directed.
Testimony
How to Curb Rising Suicide Terrorism in Afghanistan — Jul. 18, 2006
Suicide attacks have become a major factor in the current resurgence of violence in Afghanistan, indicating Al Qaeda is staging a comeback. So far this year, there have been 32 suicide terrorist attacks, more than the total committed in the entire history of the country, write Hekmat Karzai and Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
U.S. Options for Creating Transitional Security Forces — Jun. 28, 2006
In Iraq and elsewhere, the U.S. finds itself in need of a law enforcement capability for stability operations. How should such a force be created and what specific capabilities should it embody? Five major options, including cilivian and military, are explored.
Full Document
The Middle East's Changing Strategic Environment — Jun. 15, 2006
A conference held jointly by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy and the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy examined the changing strategic environment of the Middle East, with emphasis on the situation in Iraq; Iran's nuclear program; and strategies for countering Islamic terrorism.
Full Document
Zarqawi Death Won't End War — Jun. 10, 2006
While the U.S. killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has removed the leading terrorist from Iraq, it has not removed terrorism from the country. "We can expect the terrorists and insurgents to carry on without him," President George W. Bush said, commenting on Zarqawi's death in an American bombing attack June 7. The president is right on this point, writes Farhana Ali.
Commentary
How Iraq's Neighbours Can Steer It Away From Destruction — Jun. 07, 2006
It is time to hold a peace conference on Iraq. Only a regional solution can end the continued fighting that threatens to spill over into neighbouring states, writes David Aaron.
Commentary
Averting War with Iran — May 2, 2006
As the Bush administration wrestles with how to respond to Iran's latest challenge, it would do well to reflect on the lessons of its military invasion in Iraq. The toppling of Saddam Hussein was supposed to lead to a democratic Iraq that would ignite the fires of democracy throughout the Greater Middle East. Instead, regime change in Iraq has sparked regional turmoil and set off a chain reaction of unintended consequences, write F. Stephen Larrabee and Peter A. Wilson.
Commentary
America Needs to Pick Its Fights Carefully — May 2, 2006
If not handled carefully, the recently renamed “long war” on global terror could turn into an undifferentiated campaign against Muslim insurgencies, wherever they may emerge. This would be a great mistake. Just because Al Qaeda attaches itself to one Muslim cause or another should not necessarily make those insurgents America’s enemies, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Stability in Iraq Won't Come Without Disbanding Militias — May 2, 2006
While the formation of a new Iraqi government is one necessary condition to avert a civil war there, another is for the US and Iraqi governments to get control of the Shiite militias that American forces have been reluctant to fight, writes David C. Gompert.
Commentary
Time To Talk With Iran — Apr. 26, 2006
American and Iranian leaders are talking a great deal about each other — when they should be devoting far more attention to talking to each other. Both sides are throwing sharp verbal punches with increasing frequency, amid news reports of a possible U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and continued efforts by Iran's leaders to advance their nation's nuclear capability, writes Rober E. Hunter.
Commentary
Striking Iran Is an Option, Not Inevitable — Apr. 11, 2006
Recent reports that the United States and Israeli militaries are weighing a possible strike against Iranian nuclear facilities have raised the stakes in Iran's effort to build a nuclear program. But a US or Israeli attack on Iran would be extremely destabilizing and counterproductive to America's war on terrorism, writes Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
Today's Wars Are Less About Ideas Than Extreme Tribalism — Mar. 27, 2006
Western strategists and policymakers should stop talking about a clash of civilizations and focus on the real problem: extreme tribalism. Recent events - riots in many nations protesting cartoons of the prophet Muhammad, Sunni-Shiite warring in Iraq, the Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan - confirm that the West is not in a clash with Islam. Instead, Islam, which is a civilizing force, has fallen under the sway of Islamists who are a tribalizing force, writes David Ronfeldt.
Commentary
The Defiant War — Mar. 19, 2006
Bad choices leave bad choices. The war against Saddam Hussein may have been a strategic mistake from the beginning, but walking away now is not the same, either practically or morally, as having avoided the strategic blunder of war in the first place, writes Gregory F. Treverton.
Commentary
How to Deal with Hamas — Mar. 15, 2006
Nearly two months after the surprise victory of Hamas in Palestinian elections, U.S. and European government policy remains dangerously obsolete and in disarray. To make the best of a bad situation will require a new approach based more on what Hamas does than on the hateful things it says, writes David Aaron.
Commentary
Pakistan vs. al-Qaida — Mar. 13, 2006
The recent visit by President George W. Bush to Pakistan focused media attention on critics of President Pervez Musharraf and prompted them to call on Bush to put more pressure on the general to embrace democratic reform. But experience has shown that such pressure can often backfire — setting in motion a chain reaction of events that can create bigger problems within and beyond a nation's border, writes Farhana Ali.
Commentary
Defusing the Iranian Crisis — Mar. 9, 2006
Iran's decision to resume efforts to enrich uranium that could be used to produce nuclear weapons in defiance of international pressure to curb its nuclear program represents a significant escalation of the crisis between that nation and the international community. It has also raised the prospect that the United States or Israeli military might launch a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities if Iran continues its intransigence, writes F. Stephen Larrabee.
Commentary
The Threat of Oil Jihad — Mar. 3, 2006
The Feb. 24 unsuccessful terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia on the world's largest oil processing facility was intended to bring jihad to the wallets of consumers around the world, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
A Far too Costly Pentagon — Feb. 27, 2006
The Pentagon's new Quadrennial Defense Review is right to give top priority to non-traditional national security demands: countering the spreading Islamist-terrorist insurgency and stabilizing fragile states that could succumb to this insurgency. The threat of violent extremism demands a de-emphasis of dangers from hostile nations, none of which would dare to challenge America militarily, write David C. Gompert and James Dobbins.
Commentary
Cartoons and Terror — Feb. 22, 2006
One of the toughest battles facing America and Europe in the war on terrorism is the campaign to convince Muslims around that world that the West is not really engaged in a war on Islam. The cartoons of the Prophet Mohammad carried in newspapers in Denmark and elsewhere in Europe have made the battle a lot harder to win, writes Farhana Ali.
Commentary
Combating Al Qaeda and the Militant Islamic Threat — Feb. 16, 2006
[T]he attention of the U.S. military and intelligence community is directed almost uniformly towards hunting down militant leaders or protecting U.S. forces - not toward understanding the enemy we now face. This is a monumental failing not only because decapitation strategies have rarely worked in countering mass mobilization terrorist or insurgent campaigns, but also because al Qaeda's ability to continue this struggle is ineluctably predicated on its capacity to attract new recruits and replenish its resources.
Testimony
A Strategy for Iran — Feb. 10, 2006
The United States needs a regional strategy to respond to the growing threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons. Economic sanctions, military force and pressure for internal reform are not guaranteed to stop Iran from joining the nuclear club, nor will promoting democracy across the region. Instead, America needs a vision of how Iran might be co-opted into a new system of Middle East security, particularly in light of the instability that will be created by the eventual reduction of U.S. forces from Iraq, writes Dalia Dassa Kaye.
Commentary
Just Starting: The War Against Terror — Jan. 25, 2006
The central message of Osama bin Laden's latest audiotape heard 'round the world is that al-Qaida lives, he is in command, the jihadists are winning and victory is inevitable - the exact opposite of the message President George W. Bush delivers in speeches on the war on terrorism, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Iraq Needs Unity — Dec. 30, 2005
High voter turnout in the recent Iraqi elections demonstrates that democracy can mobilize the Iraqi people. What remains to be seen is whether democracy will also unite them, or drive them apart. Election returns are not encouraging on this score, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Vision for a Successful Palestine — Dec. 14, 2005
The path toward creation of a Palestinian state continues its zigzag course, but can still reach its goal. There was progress when a border crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt opened under Palestinian control for the first time Nov. 25. But a suicide bombing that killed five Israelis in Netanya Dec. 5 led Israel to suspend talks to allow bus convoys linking Gaza and the West Bank, writes Michael Rich.
Commentary
The Bomber Behind the Veil — Dec. 13, 2005
Two recent attacks by female suicide bombers have put the world on notice that Muslim women are playing an increasingly important role in this form of terrorism. Understanding what motivates such women is a vital first step in seeking ways to combat this deadly trend, writes Farhana Ali.
Commentary
Shareholders Don't Shoot Each Other — Nov. 23, 2005
Privatizing Iraq's oil assets, and vesting all citizens with shares, can provide incentive for every Iraqi - including Sunnis, the insurgency's core - to view commerce as a better path than violence. Ownership would provide 28 million citizens with a prospective increase in per-capita income of about $5,800, substantially raising their present income. This is unlikely to persuade hard-core terrorists to change course. But turning all Iraqis into stockholders of the nation's oil wealth can win over the support of the bulk of the Sunni population that now backs the insurgency through provision of foot soldiers, intelligence, cover, safe houses or passive acceptance, writes Charles Wolf, Jr.
Commentary
Misjudging The Jihad: Briefing Osama on All the War's Wins and Losses — Nov. 13, 2005
We see the televised briefings in Washington, but what about the briefings on the other side of on the campaign against terror, perhaps in the mountains of Pakistan? An aide briefing Osama bin Laden on the al Qaeda balance sheet today would have to admit to plenty of bad news, write Brian Michael Jenkins and Gregory F. Treverton.
Commentary
Moderate and Radical Islam — Nov. 3, 2005
The willingness to use or justify violence to attain political objectives is one element of what separates radical from moderate Muslims—a very important element, but only one element nonetheless. This is why in our study we take a broader view of what constitutes radical Islam. We contend that, in order to confront Islamist terrorism effectively, there is a need to address the ideological aspect of radicalization, said Angel Rabasa in testimony presented to the House Armed Services Committee Defense Review Terrorism and Radical Islam Gap Panel.
Testimony
Bush Needs Allies Near Iraq, However Unsavoury — Nov. 1, 2005
To stabilise Bosnia, the Clinton administration had to deal with Slobodan Milosevic and Franjo Tudjman, the two men personally responsible for the genocide Washington was trying to stop. To put together a successor regime to the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Bush administration had to deal with the regional states that had been tearing that country apart for 20 years, including Russia, Pakistan, India and Iran. The time has come for a similarly inclusive effort on Iraq, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Terror in Historical Context — Oct. 28, 2005
President George W. Bush asserts that fighting in Iraq is a necessary correction to the responses by the Carter, Reagan, and Clinton administrations to earlier terrorist challenges. "To leave Iraq now," the president argues, "would be to repeat the costly mistakes of the past that led to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 … the terrorists concluded that we lacked the courage and character to defend ourselves, and so they attacked us." However, this "mistakes of the past" thesis ignores the historical context and differing circumstances of previous decisions, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
The Logic of Suicide Terrorism — Oct. 20, 2005
Suicide bombings have become an increasingly popular tool for terrorists, as witnessed in Iraq. RAND terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman discusses the logic behind suicide terrorism, how other countries that have had sustained, intense, and numerous attacks have dealt with it, and the lessons they learned in the process.
CommentaryTerrorism and Homeland Security Research Area
NATO Peacekeepers Need a Partner — Sep. 30, 2005
With its recent elections, Afghanistan has come to the end of the road laid out for it at the 2001 Bonn Conference. The country will now have a popularly elected president and Parliament. It remains, however, desperately poor, dependent on illegal drug production and challenged by a fundamentalist insurgency operating out of sanctuaries in Pakistan. The country needs a new road map, and continued international support, as it embarks upon the next stage of its journey, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
The Danger Next Door — Sep. 23, 2005
The Sept. 18 elections for Parliament and provincial councils were an important step in Afghanistan's march toward democracy. But now that progress is threatened by an increasingly violent insurgency that uses Pakistan as a staging area for attacks. Unless the United States and Pakistan take steps to eliminate this sanctuary, the security situation in Afghanistan will continue to deteriorate and undermine the country's fragile democracy, writes Seth G. Jones.
Commentary
Four Years After 9/11, War on Terror Slogs On — Sep. 11, 2005
Four years after 9/11, where are we in the global war on terror? The question itself reflects our typically American desire to keep score, measure progress. Progress in World War II provided visible mileposts – the invasion of North Africa, the march through Italy, the return to the Philippines, the landing at Normandy, the liberation of Paris, the fall of Berlin, VE day, VJ day – a bloodier contest but we knew where we were going, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Iraq's Constitution: From Dayton to Baghdad — Aug. 27, 2005
The last time American diplomats locked a group of prospective founding fathers in a room with orders not to come out until they had a constitution was a decade ago, in Dayton, Ohio. The founding fathers in question represented Bosnia's Muslim, Roman Catholic and Orthodox Christian communities. In Baghdad today, as in Dayton 10 years ago, observers have established three major criteria for success, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
In Iraq's Prisons, Try a Little Tenderness — Aug. 25, 2005
When Americans talk about "the lessons of Vietnam," they usually mean failed policies and programs that shouldn't be repeated. But there were some successes in the Vietnam War, including an initiative to win the allegiance of captured and defecting Vietcong and North Vietnamese fighters by treating them generously and reshaping their attitudes. This idea — that harsh treatment of prisoners can be less effective than showing compassion — now deserves a test in Ira, write Scott Gerwehr and Nina Hachigian.
Commentary
Palestinians Need Money in Order for Peace to Work — Aug. 16, 2005
Most Israelis and Palestinians clearly want peace to happen. But as things stand now, the Palestinians have about zero chance of making the desert bloom in Gaza. The reason is simple: almost no cash, says Robert Hunter.
Commentary
Timing is Everything — Aug. 13, 2005
The bombings just over a month ago in London call to mind those in Madrid last year, and not just because they were both attacks on public transit. Both may have been intended to achieve goals that are important to achieving the international jihadist movement's strategy for re-establishing an authentic Sunni Caliphate that includes all lands once subject to the Caliph, writes Terrence K. Kelly.
Commentary
Gauging Counterinsurgency — Aug. 09, 2005
Many Americans wonder why the world's most powerful military force, which toppled Saddam Hussein quickly and without suffering heavy casualties, is unable to stop insurgents from staging an average of 70 attacks a day across Iraq, writes Nora Bensahel.
Commentary
A Future Beyond a Funeral — Aug. 05, 2005
The West must do a better job of bringing opportunity and dignity to these Muslim youths. If we can't, the terrorists will continue to prey upon such vulnerable young people, convincing them that the path to glory and dignity lies along the road of suicide bombings and explosive devices. It seems obvious that the success of the terrorist movement rests on the vulnerability of youth worldwide. In military parlance, halting this trend would be considered the deep fight, writes Ed O'Connell.
Commentary
The Lessons of London — Jul. 17, 2005
[W]hile we have damaged the jihadists' network, we have not dented their determination. Al-Qaeda today is an ideology that transcends the original organization to inspire many little al-Qaedas. Comprising old veterans and new volunteers, the jihadists communicate on a thousand more Web sites, train at secret locations, continue to plan and prepare attacks, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Palestinians Need More Cash — Jul. 07, 2005
President George W. Bush's pledge at his meeting in May with the Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, to provide $50 million in direct support for the Palestinian Authority is symbolically important, but needs to be 100 times larger to have a real impact, writes Robert E. Hunter.
Commentary
Lessons to Be Learned from Conflicts in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan — Jun. 28, 2005
Iraq's elections gave Shia and Kurdish leaders democratic legitimacy, but they further marginalized Sunnis. As a result, the still rising tide of violence in Iraq has taken on an increasingly sectarian character. The Shia and Kurdish communities can prevail in this conflict as long as they stick together. Between them, they represent three-quarters of Iraq's population. They also have the support of both the United States and Iran, but the Sunni minority is also receiving support from neighboring Sunni societies, like Saudi Arabia and Syria. This sort of externally sponsored competition is a formula for long, bloody civil war, says James Dobbins.
Commentary
Strategy: Political Warfare Neglected — Jun. 26, 2005
In Yemen three years ago, Islamic scholars challenged a group of defiant al-Qaeda prisoners to a theological debate. “If you convince us that your ideas are justified by the Koran, then we will join you in the struggle,” the scholars told the terrorists. “But if we succeed in convincing you of our ideas, then you must agree to renounce violence.” The scholars won the debate, the prisoners renounced violence, were released and were given help to find jobs. Some have since offered advice to Yemeni security services – a tip from one led to the death of al-Qaeda's top leader in the country, writes Brian Michael Jenkins
Commentary
Revitalizing U.S.-Turkey Relations — Jun. 8, 2005
In a Washington Times commentary, Frank Carlucci and F. Stephen Larrabee discuss recent developments towards re-establishing a strong relationship between the U.S. and Turkey, and key points of focus for a Turkish-American partnership, including Iraq, broader Middle East democratization, and Iran.
Commentary at washingtontimes.com
Terrorists and Organized Crime Join Forces — May 24, 2005
Terrorist groups and organized crime networks are increasingly working together, strengthening their ability to inflict harm on law-abiding societies with conventional weapons today, and possibly with nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in the future, writes Rollie Lal.
Commentary
Planning for Palestine — May 22, 2005
Governments in the Palestinian territories, Israel and around the world agree that the long-sought goal of an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement will require the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Yet nation-building, as witnessed in Iraq, is a complex task that is made harder without detailed planning, write Steven Simon and C. Ross Anthony.
Commentary
Buy Security Through Aid — May 21, 2005
A decade ago, corruption was a taboo subject in economic development. Although studies showed that corruption did not increase growth but only greased greedy palms, the subject was still too hot, too political and too sovereign. Today, the issue of security is where corruption was a decade ago — development's awkward stepchild, too large to ignore but too domestic and too sovereign to be discussed explicitly, write Gregory F. Treverton and Robert Klitgaard.
Commentary
Can the Iraq Beast Be Tamed? — May 18, 2005
Two years after conquering Iraq, America now finds itself locked in a struggle with a fierce insurgency that is using suicide bombers, improvised explosive devices, beheadings, ambushes, kidnappings, and assassinations to kill Iraqis, Americans, and coalition forces, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Iraq: Democracy vs. Power Sharing — May 7, 2005
Three recent and well-studied American initiatives all had the potential to alter the equation in Iraq when they were introduced, but in unpredictable ways: the Iraqi elections, President George W. Bush's commitment to spreading democracy and the administration's handing over of more responsibility to Iraqis. In fact, these are all related, and with the fog lifting from their aftermath, it is increasingly possible to begin to predict their cumulative effects, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Kidnappings in Iraq Strategically Effective — Apr. 29, 2005
Kidnapping for ransom or for political ends has become a key component of Iraq's resistance movement. But while terrorist kidnappers have long been able to attract publicity, create crises and occasionally obtain political concessions, insurgents in Iraq are the first in the annals of terrorism to transform kidnapping into a strategic weapon, write Brian Michael Jenkins, Meg Williams, and Ed Williams.
Commentary
Promoting Justice — Mar. 22, 2005
Nearly everyone who grew up in the United States can remember reciting the Pledge of Allegiance in school, ending with the words “with liberty and justice for all.” Now as the United States seeks to fulfill President Bush's commitment to promote freedom and liberty around the world, promoting “justice for all” is vitally important as well, writes David Aaron.
Commentary
Contrary to Some Journalistic Snap Judgments, the Iraqi Elections Were Not a Victory for a Theocracy Controlled by Iran — Feb. 20, 2005
The final results of the Jan. 30 Iraqi elections were certified Thursday and contained no surprises — the Shiite slate of parties won a large plurality of the votes, with the Kurds making a strong showing, writes Terrence K. Kelly.
Commentary
Bin Laden and His Special Effects
— Feb. 4, 2005
Forced out of his sanctuary in Afghanistan and without a standing army at his command, the world's most hunted man must spend his life in hardship and hiding. But despite his lack of military power, Osama bin Laden remains a deadly threat because he has the awesome power of inspiring words and ideas at his command. Delivering a message of endless holy war against a demonized enemy, he remains a frequent and fervent communicator with the power to motivate his followers to willingly sacrifice their lives to wage holy war, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
Iraq: Not Terrorist Central
— Jan. 30, 2005
By fighting terrorists in Iraq, does America reduce the likelihood it will have to fight them in the United States? It is an appealing idea to a nation that continues to worry about another 9/11, but on careful analysis the argument does not stand up, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Commentary
A Chance to Clean Up the Palestinian Authority — Jan. 6, 2005
One of the most important challenges for the new president of the Palestinian Authority who will emerge from Sunday's election will be to curb widespread corruption and ineffectiveness plaguing the Palestinian security and justice systems. The task will be difficult but vital to the creation of a viable and democratic Palestinian entity, writes Seth Jones.
Commentary
Work with the PA for Peace — Dec. 29, 2004
Yasser Arafat's death opens up an opportunity for peace in the Middle East. His failure to exploit a reluctant but promising offer from the Israelis at Camp David in July 2000 by continuing negotiations, his provocative role in the second intifada that started in September 2000, and his apparent refusal to swear off political violence made him an unacceptable interlocutor to the United States and Israel. Since he was therefore also unwilling to relinquish authority to an acceptable peacemaker, the post-intifada peace process was stillborn,
write Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson.
Commentary
Social Studies: 21st Century Tribes
— Dec. 12, 2004
In Afghanistan and Iraq, the United States is fighting virulent tribalism as much as Islamic fundamentalism. Salafi and Wahhabi teachings calling for jihad against infidels, fatwas from clerics justifying the murder of noncombatants and ultimatums from Sunni insurgents who behead captives all are expressions of extreme tribalism more than Islam,
writes David Ronfeldt.
Commentary
Nation-Building Returns to Favour — Aug. 11, 2004
Serious and still mounting losses in Iraq and Afghanistan have led official Washington to
recognise, if not acknowledge, serious shortfalls in America's recent nation-building efforts.
A decade ago, far more modest setbacks in Somalia triggered calls for America not just to withdraw
but also to abandon the whole concept of nation-building. The current reaction is quite the opposite,
writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Lessons from the Past for Iraq's Future
— Jul. 23, 2004
Iraq's new government and its American and coalition allies are faced with the
challenge of simultaneously fighting the insurgency raging across the country on
both the military and political levels. They can get good advice on how to do this by
studying the views of Sir Gerald Templer, the architect of Britain's victory in the
Malayan insurgency during the 1950s, writes Bruce Hoffman.
Commentary
Countering Radical Islam Through Understanding
— Mar. 18, 2004
The U.S. can counter the destabilizing forces of radical Islam by better understanding the spectrum of Muslim views—views that separate allies from adversaries.
Full Document
News Release
Securing the Peace Will Require Finesse — Jun. 27, 2004
The U.S. has made important course corrections in its approach to Iraq. The changes are also being accompanied by a shift in American military strategy toward a less prominent and less visible role for American and coalition forces on the streets of Iraq's major cities. American and Iraqi leaders will need to look beyond peace enforcement operations of the last decade and turn to British and American experiences of the past half-century in places like Malaysia, Kenya, Vietnam and Northern Ireland for inspiration, writes James Dobbins.
Commentary
Future Trends in the Middle East — Jun. 2, 2004
This report examines key trends in Middle East—energy security, weapons of mass destruction, economic reform, and leadership change—and their implications for the U.S.
Full Document Research Brief
Countering Radical Islam Through Understanding — March 2004
The U.S. can counter the destabilizing forces of r
