Protecting the civilian population is one of the central tenets of U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine. Until very recently, however, the U.S. military has not had a formal system for documenting the level of violence directed against Iraqi civilians. Therefore, other groups (such as nongovernmental organizations, the United Nations, and Iraqi ministries) have filled the vacuum in reporting, relying on media accounts, surveys, death certificates, and other open-source information to generate datasets of varying transparency and quality. The resulting statistics have generated widespread debate over sources, methods, and political biases. This study examines available open-source data on Iraqi civilian fatalities and assesses problems associated with previous collection and analysis efforts. The authors present a more robust RAND Corporation Iraqi civilian violence dataset from which they derive new observations about trends in targeting and weapons in 2006. RAND’s dataset reveals that the majority of attacks in the year 2006 against civilians were directed against individuals without any identifiable affiliation, and that most attacks were carried out using firearms (rather than via improvised explosive devices or suicide attacks). These findings lead to a proposed framework for future civilian fatality data-collection efforts in Iraq and beyond.

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This study explores the nature of the insurgency in Afghanistan, the key challenges and successes of the U.S.-led counterinsurgency campaign, and the capabilities necessary to wage effective counterinsurgency operations. By examining the key lessons from all insurgencies since World War II, it finds that most policymakers repeatedly underestimate the importance of indigenous actors to counterinsurgency efforts. The U.S. should focus its resources on helping improve the capacity of the indigenous government and indigenous security forces to wage counterinsurgency. It has not always done this well. The U.S. military—along with U.S. civilian agencies and other coalition partners—is more likely to be successful in counterinsurgency warfare the more capable and legitimate the indigenous security forces (especially the police), the better the governance capacity of the local state, and the less external support that insurgents receive.

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Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have shown that U.S. forces need more-effective techniques and procedures to conduct counterinsurgency. It is likely that U.S. forces will face similar, irregular warfare tactics from future enemies that are unwilling to engage in conventional combat with U.S. forces. This monograph examines the nature of the contemporary insurgent threat and provides insights on using operational analysis techniques to support intelligence operations in counterinsurgencies. The authors examine the stages of an insurgency and discuss the kinds of intelligence that are needed at each stage. A number of techniques—pattern discernment and predictive analysis, for example—appear to show promise of being useful to intelligence analysis. The authors also explore two closely connected methods in depth to examine the interactions between friendly and enemy forces: game theory and change detection.

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Is the United States in danger of losing its competitive edge in science and technology (S&T)? This concern has been raised repeatedly since the end of the Cold War, most recently in a wave of reports in the mid-2000s suggesting that globalization and the growing strength of other nations in S&T, coupled with inadequate U.S. investments in research and education, threaten the United States’ position of leadership in S&T. Galama and Hosek examine these claims and contrast them with relevant data, including trends in research and development investment; information on the size, composition, and pay of the U.S. science and engineering workforce; and domestic and international education statistics. They find that the United States continues to lead the world in S&T and has kept pace or grown faster than other nations on several measurements of S&T performance; that it generally benefits from the influx of foreign S&T students and workers; and that the United States will continue to benefit from the development of new technologies by other nations as long as it maintains the capability to acquire and implement such technologies. However, U.S. leadership in S&T must not be taken for granted, and Galama and Hosek conclude with recommendations to strengthen the U.S. S&T enterprise, including measures to facilitate the immigration of highly skilled labor and improve the U.S. education system.

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As a Muslim-majority country that is also a secular democratic state, a member of NATO, a candidate for membership in the European Union, a long-standing U.S. ally, and the host of Incirlik Air Base (a key hub for logistical support missions in Afghanistan and Iraq), Turkey is pivotal to U.S. and Western security interests in a critical area of the world. It also provides an example of the coexistence of Islam with secular democracy, globalization, and modernity. However, having a ruling party with Islamic roots—the Justice and Development Party (AKP)—within a framework of strict secularism has generated controversy over the boundaries between secularity and religion in the public sphere. This monograph describes the politico-religious landscape in Turkey and the relationship between the state and religion, and it evaluates how the balance between secular and religious forces—and between the Kemalist elites and new emerging social groups—has changed over the past decade. The study also assesses the new challenges and opportunities for U.S. policy in the changed Turkish political environment and identifies specific actions the United States may take to advance the U.S. interest in a stable, democratic, and friendly Turkey and, more broadly, in the worldwide dissemination of liberal and pluralistic interpretations of Islam.

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The RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD) addresses a wide variety of issues at the top of the national and international security policy agenda. This annual report offers a general survey of NSRD work in 2007, including research on counterinsurgency, strategic planning, intelligence analysis, sea basing, Asian geopolitics, military divorce, the Army’s assignment policy for women, and improving mental health care for servicemembers.

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The vast size and highly unregulated nature of the world’s waterways have made the maritime environment an attractive theater for perpetrators of transnational violence. Both piracy and sea-borne terrorism have become more common since 2000 due to the global proliferation of small arms as well as growing vulnerabilities in maritime shipping, surveillance, and coastal and port-side security. In addition to massive increases in maritime traffic, pirates have profited from increasingly congested maritime chokepoints, the lingering effects of the Asian financial crisis, and weakened judicial and governmental structures. Some analysts also fear that terrorists may soon exploit the carefully calibrated freight trading system to trigger a global economic crisis, or use the container supply chain to transport weapons of mass destruction. While speculation about an emerging tactical nexus between piracy and terrorism is complicating the maritime threat picture, credible evidence to support this presumed convergence has yet to emerge. Since 2002, the United States—one of the world’s principal maritime trading states—has spearheaded several important initiatives to improve global and regional maritime security. Although an important contribution, the author urges policymakers to consider four additional measures to better safeguard the world’s oceans: helping to further expand the post-9/11 maritime security regime; conducting regular and rigorous threat assessments; assisting with redefining mandates of existing multilateral security and defense arrangements; and encouraging the commercial maritime industry to make greater use of enabling communication and defensive technologies and accept a greater degree of transparency in its corporate structures.

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The structures making up airframes must be durable and damage-tolerant, and the means of ensuring that they are have long been well defined for structures made of metal. But a host of new hybrid materials, some of which contain no metal, are now being used, and these can present new damage mechanisms that engineers must address. The Air Force has established a general approach to airframe durability and damage tolerance. The author examines that approach and considers ways it will need to adapt for the new materials. Given the variety of materials, processes, and end uses involved, the engineering effort will necessarily involve multiple specialties. In these circumstances, the tailoring process could benefit from the efforts of systems engineers. The report addresses both technical and programmatic concerns and identifies opportunities for materials and structural engineers to collaborate with systems engineers. Finally, it offers a framework for collaboration.

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Late in 2006, the Air Force enlisted RAND Project AIR FORCE’s assistance to respond to a requirement in the 2007 Defense Appropriations Act to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of an Air Force proposal to consolidate and divest itself of a portion of the Air Force Materiel Command’s test and evaluation facilities and capabilities. The resulting analysis indicated that the proposed consolidation of the 46th and 412th Test Wings could save costs over the Future Years Defense Program from 2007 through 2011 if it occurred in conjunction with the transfer of open-air range flight testing from Eglin Air Force Base (AFB) to Edwards AFB and the Naval Air Warfare Centers at Point Mugu and China Lake. Other parts of the Air Force proposal were considered not to be cost-effective, including the closure of Eglin ground-range test facilities and other test facilities at Eglin AFB, at Holloman AFB, and at Moffett Field. The monograph highlights areas of risk that the Air Force should consider prior to implementation.

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COMMENTARY

The following is a list of national security related commentary pieces that RAND researchers have contributed to newspapers in the past month. To retrieve past commentary pieces, please visit RAND's commentary page.

CHINA'S RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT
Author: David C. Gompert (Washington Post)

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HEZBOLLAH'S ARMORY UP FOR DEBATE
Authors: Theodore W. Karasik and Ghassan Schbley (United Press International and the Middle East Times)

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A CHANCE IN LEBANON; NO PLACE FOR TYRANTS
Authors: Theodore W. Karasik and Ghassan Schbley (International Herald Tribune)

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