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REPORTS
The publications below are sorted by year and title.
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An Ever Closer Union: European Integration and Its Implications for the Future of U.S.-European Relations - 1993
J. B. Steinberg
This report examines the process of European integration and assesses its implications for U.S. policy. The study finds that changes in the European Community (EC) will be evolutionary, with the economic and financial dimension moving more quickly and the foreign policy and defense dimension moving more slowly. It also concludes that U.S. influence over European policy will diminish as Europeans become more preoccupied with developing intra-EC consensus, that conflicts in the economic realm will continue and could worsen if the United States and the EC move away from an open trading and financial system to a bloc economic approach, and that NATO will play a diminished role in transatlantic policy consultation and coordination, but will remain an important element of the European security structure. The document recommends that the United States adopt a policy of supporting the general thrust of the integrative process, develop more extensive bilateral working relationships with EC institutions on both economic and security policy, support NATO reform to enhance the complementarity of the EC and NATO, and advocate broadening the EC to include Central European and East European countries.
Design of Field-Based Crosstraining Programs and Implications for Readiness - 1993
W. G. Wild, B. R. Orvis, R. M. Mazel, I. Maclennan, R. D. Bender
As part of a broad effort to reduce defense expenditures, the Army is exploring a number of new approaches to training individual soldiers. Prominent among these approaches is "field-based crosstraining (FBCT)," which involves combining two or more occupational specialties and shifting initial skill training from Army schools to on-the-job training in field units. This report describes a method for analyzing the features, advantages, and disadvantages of field-based crosstraining programs in the Army. Focusing on the specific case of helicopter maintenance, the report analyzes data from field units and recommends alternative field-based crosstraining strategies for the Army. An assessment of the Army's Apprentice Mechanic Initiative (AMI) for helicopter maintenance is included in the analysis.
Evolution of Models at the Warrior Preparation Center: Problems and Solutions for Higher-Echelon Exercises - 1993
P. D. Allen
This report describes the evolution of the suite of models at the Warrior Preparation Center (WPC), a training and support facility in Europe. The study points out that the WPC faced a sudden change in its customer base, which meant that underlying assumptions and exercise designs well suited for that earlier customer base had to be reevaluated. This reevaluation yielded two results: (1) the WPC should strive to reduce in-house model development and model modification and should focus instead on improved training support activities; and (2) the WPC should initiate a new investigation of alternative models and exercise designs without the old institutional assumptions. This result led to the decision that the WPC should have two sets of models-one for Army Group and above and another for Army Group and below. The project staff recommended the Corps Battle Simulation (CBS) model to replace WPC's ground war simulation (GRWSIM) model for lower echelon exercises and the joint theater-level simulation (JTLS) model for higher-echelon training.
How to Estimate the Costs of Changes in Army Individual Skill Training - 1993
S. Way-Smith
This report describes a method to estimate costs of changes in Army courses that result from changes in training strategies. The methodology, called TRAM (Training Resource Analysis Method), employs a five-step procedure that begins with a baseline analysis, determines changes, estimates cost, and analyzes trade-offs and risks. Applying the methodology to four variations of the Army's Armor Officer Advanced Course that include different lengths, approaches (e.g., centralized vs. dispersed), and mediums (e.g., paper vs. computer-assisted) reveals potentially substantial savings. But the savings depend directly on the choice of media and how training is implemented in the field. Distributed training saves money only if capacity already exists, development and support costs remain low, and the course uses "low-tech" media. The analysis suggests three significant conclusions. First, savings normally result from trading off other factors such as effectiveness or capability. Detailing changes in activities allows decisionmakers to apply experience and judgment to determine if the savings justify the tradeoffs. Second, a significant part of training costs stems from support and base operations functions that are relatively insensitive to changes in course length and method. Without other major changes such as facilities consolidation, savings in training costs will only occur at the margin. Finally, distributing more training than field units can readily absorb drives training costs up significantly.
Post-Cold War U.S. Security Strategies for the Persian Gulf - 1993
M. Agmon
The end of the Cold War has presented the United States with an opportunity to adopt a different strategy toward the Persian Gulf region. In the past, the policy has been one of close and enduring political, military, and personal ties with friendly regimes. An opportunity for a more distant, "insulating" policy now presents itself. This report analyzes the potential costs and benefits of such a strategy. It posits four possible strategies-two traditional and two insulating-and evaluates them against five criteria. All strategies have different degrees of risk and benefit. Analyzing all factors leads to three major conclusions. First, whatever strategy is pursued, the United States needs to maintain sufficient military resources to serve as a balancing force in the region. Second, the two alternatives that emphasize either all-Arab or Saudi defense of the region pose the highest risk in terms of political instability. Finally, regional arms control makes all alternatives less costly and more beneficial.
Army Families and Soldier Readiness - 1992
M. A. Burnam, L. S. Meredith, C. D. Sherbourne, R. B. Valdez, G. Vernez
During the 1980s, Army families became more diverse and complex, paralleling trends in the civilian world. As these changes have developed, Army families have called for improved family and quality-of-life programs. The Army leadership has expressed concern that family needs, if unmet, could reduce soldiers' readiness, retention, and overall well-being. To determine how extensive such needs are, and how much they are affected by family characteristics and Army policies, this study collected quantitative data relevant to Army family policy, focusing on three key areas: soldiers' individual readiness, their use of family services, and their overall well-being. The analyses confirm that long working hours, frequent rotations, frequent separations from family, overseas location, and assignment to a nonpreferred location have negative impacts on individual readiness and well-being. The authors found a strong relationship between favorable perceptions of Army leadership and practices on the one hand, and readiness and individual well-being on the other. Perceptions of Army support and of the necessity of Army requirements are also associated with retention for officers and with Army commitment and job performance for all soldiers. (See also R-3691, N-2624)
Assumption-Based Planning for Army 21 - 1992
J. A. Dewar, M. H. Levin
This report describes a long-range planning methodology developed for Army 21-an Army planning exercise designed to envision how the Army will fight between 15 and 30 years in the future-and demonstrates a partial implementation of the methodology by generating a set of alternative futures. In applying the methodology to the AirLand Battle-Future (ALB-F) concept, we found that the scenarios generated can be properly used to do two things: think about actions that should be taken in current planning to begin preparing for the eventuation of any of the scenarios, and identify "signposts"-events or trends that would suggest the world had taken an important turn toward one of the challenges to the ALB-F concept. We also found the methodology could be improved by developing a rudimentary theory of assumptions to guide their discovery and formulation. Finally, we found the ALB-F concept to be robust because it was difficult to come up with assumptions underlying it that might be violated; such a finding implies that doctrine writers will be challenged to develop the concept into a compelling guide to force structure development, training, etc.
Bridge or Barrier?: Turkey and the West After the Cold War - 1992
I. O. Lesser
This report explores the roots of Turkey's western orientation and the prospects for Turkish relations with Europe and the United States after the Cold War. The study indicates that Turkey's basic western orientation will almost certainly hold and that the prospects for Turkey formally joining the European Community have not improved despite Turkish support in the Gulf War. Turkey's prospects for inclusion in new European security arrangements will remain poor, and Turkey will become increasingly distinctive and perhaps isolated within the NATO alliance. It also finds that if Europe excludes Turkey, then the significance of the bilateral relationship with the United States will grow and that U.S. and Turkish interests are likely to remain broadly congruent. Given these findings, the United States should strive to promote Turkey's strategic importance in Europe and the Middle East, avoid pressing Ankara for a formal expansion of defense cooperation, consider the potential role of Turkey as a conduit for western aid to the southern republics of the former Soviet Union, seek the development of a more mature and diversified relationship mixing traditional security assistance with expansion of political and economic ties, and continue playing an active role in promoting a Cyprus settlement.
Civil-Military Relations and National Security Thinking in Czechoslovakia: A Conference Report - 1992
T. S. Szayna, J. B. Steinberg
This report summarizes the results of a workshop entitled "Civil-Military Relations and the Development of National Security Policy in the United States and Czech and Slovak Federal Republic," held in Prague on May 5-7, 1991. The central conclusion from the workshop is that the Czechoslovak military has evolved greatly toward a genuine state institution since the political changes in late 1989. However, Czechoslovak officials look to the United States (as well as other Western countries) for help in training personnel, both uniformed military and civilian security experts. Such help would ensure the continued successful transformation of the Czechoslovak military. The workshop occurred before the August 1991 coup that marked the end of Communist dictatorship in the former USSR. As a result, the sense of unease about instability and potential spillover of ethnic strife from the Ukraine into Slovakia has probably increased. The disintegration of Yugoslavia and the potential for the spread of the conflict have also emerged as real threats to stability in the region. These developments are bound to motivate Czechoslovak officials to continue to further institutionalize the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) and to attain security guarantees through membership in Western security organizations.
Effect of Aptitude on the Performance of Army Communications Operators - 1992
J. D. Winkler, J. C. Fernandez, J. M. Polich
This report examines duty tasks performed by military occupational specialty 31M, Multichannel Communications Equipment Operator, whose members operate communications systems providing division- and corps-level command and control. The intent was to develop quantitative analyses based on objective measurement of soldier and unit performance aimed at improving the Army's ability to set appropriate performance standards and to develop quantitative estimates of the link between personnel aptitude and Army operational performance. The study finds that the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) score has a direct, consistent effect on the ability of communications personnel to provide effective battlefield communications to Army units. The evidence suggests that AFQT scores have a sizable effect on group performance. Groups that are on average "smarter" outperform other groups. The study concludes that a lowering of accession standards will substantially reduce the probability of operator success in operating and troubleshooting communications systems.
Effect of Personnel Quality on the Performance of Patriot Air Defense System Operators - 1992
B. R. Orvis, M. T. Childress, J. M. Polich
This report examines the linkage between the quality of enlisted personnel (in terms of aptitude score) and their ability to operate the Patriot air defense missile system. The intent was to help the Army set appropriate performance standards and estimate the effects of personnel quality on operational performance. The study finds that the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) score has a direct, consistent effect on the outcomes of air battles, both in terms of knowledge assessed by written tests and in actual performance simulations. Specifically, soldiers with higher AFQT scores can be expected to suffer significantly less asset damage, destroy more hostile aircraft, and be more effective in missile conservation. The study also finds that a one-level change in AFQT category equaled or surpassed the effect of a year of operator experience or of frequent training, a finding that has significant readiness and cost implications, since higher quality soldiers require less training and operator experience. Finally, the study finds that next to AFQT, operator and unit experience are the factors that most consistently affect performance.
French Security Policy After the Cold War: Continuity, Change, and Implications for the United States - 1992
P. H. Gordon
This report examines contemporary French security policies and finds that despite momentous geopolitical changes in Europe since late 1989, the basic elements of French security policy have not changed much, as revealed both in France's relations with Europe and NATO and in France's response to the Gulf War. Looking ahead, the study finds that a major reorientation of security policy is unlikely in the near term. For U.S. policy, the study finds that it is not in America's interest to "marginalize" or "isolate" France by focusing solely on our "Atlantic" allies in Europe. While the study shows evidence that immobilism is more likely than major change in French-U.S. relations, it still argues that the United States should not oppose attempts to create a European security and defense identity and that it should do more to show France that the rejuvenation of NATO is not meant to exclude and replace everything else.
Improving Naval Aviation Depot Responsiveness - 1992
M. K. Brauner, D. A. Relles, L. A. Galway
This report examines the consequences of increasing the Navy depot's role in the logistics system by directing its resources toward the day-to-day needs of the fleet. Using a simulation that examined whether mission capability could be improved during a 90-day war through some combination of responsive stock management, proactive use of depot repair capabilities, and shortened transportation pipelines between carriers and depots, we found that priority repair at the depot can make on important difference in mission capability, that shortened pipelines can have large effects on mission capability, and that constructing an aviation consolidated allowance list (AVCAL) based on aircraft availability goals may offer promise for maximizing aircraft availability per dollar spent. The study also concluded that data synthesis is a missing ingredient in the Naval aviation logistics management system that inhibits the depot's ability to react quickly in support of sudden demand peaks.
An Initial Evaluation of the VISION Assessment System: Its Relevance and Application to National-Level Sustainment Planning - 1992
C. L. Tsai, P. Boren, R. Tripp
This report documents the demonstration of a prototype decision support system for logisticians called the VISION Assessment System, or VAS. The system aims at helping logistics planners evaluate and improve equipment sustainability. To demonstrate the prototype, we developed a scenario involving M1 tanks similar to one that occurred during the buildup phase of Operation Desert Shield. In addition to the standard support concept, we evaluated three other strategies designed to improve tank availability: expedited requisitions, forward-deployed depot repair, and asset prioritization. The evaluation indicated that under the standard support concept the number of operational tanks would decline to unacceptably low levels and that each enhancement strategy improved things, albeit not always to the extent anticipated. Beyond demonstrating that the prototype could address logistical questions, the project illuminated some data and usability issues. A fair amount of the data needed by VAS resides in Army standard systems, but they are not always accessible. Other elements do not exist. Also, although VAS functions, it would require additional work to make it a helpful tool at the everyday working level.
Is It You or Your Model Talking?: A Framework for Model Validation - 1992
J. S. Hodges, J. A. Dewar
This report lays out a conceptual framework for validation, arguing that some models can be validated and used to predict, while others cannot be validated and may only be put to nonpredictive uses. To be validatable, a model must be observable and measurable, must exhibit constancy of structure in time, must exhibit constancy across variations in conditions not specified in the model, and must permit the collection of ample data. Nonvalidatable models can be used as a bookkeeping device, as an aid in selling an idea of which the model is but an illustration, as a training aid to induce a particular behavior, as part of an automatic management system whose efficacy is not evaluated by using the model as if it were a true representation, as an aid to communication, as a vehicle for a fortiori arguments, and as an aid to thinking and hypothesizing. The report shows that the appropriate form of model quality assurance depends fundamentally on how the model is used.
Linking Future Training Concepts to Army Individual Training Programs - 1992
J. D. Winkler, S. J. Kirin, J. S. Uebersax
This report presents the results of research seeking to link new Army training concepts for changing institutional training programs to specific occupations and courses. It analyzes, across a range of occupations, alternative training approaches that may be more affordable and flexible than current techniques for individual skill training. The report examines training-related characteristics of Army occupations and identifies general training-related dimensions that characterize Army entry-level enlisted military occupational specialties (MOS). The authors find the principal training-related dimensions include ability requirements, dominant task characteristics (procedural or verbal), similarity to civilian occupations, and resource intensity. The dimensions can be linked to new training concepts under consideration by the Army (i.e., distributed training; use of training aids, devices, simulators, and simulations; use of civilian training sources). The authors find these results useful in suggesting MOS in which particular training concepts and strategies may prove most feasible and cost-effective.
NATO's Future Conventional Defense Strategy in Central Europe: Theater Employment Doctrine for the Post-Cold War Era - 1992
R. L. Kugler
This report provides a political-military analysis for thinking about how NATO's conventional defense strategy can be adjusted to contribute to stability in Central Europe in the coming post-Cold War era. The report (which was assembled in early 1991) concludes that NATO will need to employ a new "theater employment doctrine"--the way NATO uses military force on the battlefield to attain its goals--one that defends further eastward and more flexibly than linear defense contemplated. All viable alternatives for such a doctrine will require NATO to uproot long-established defense practices. Changes will have to be made not only in NATO's force posture, but also in how coalition defense is conducted. Having a concerted planning effort that forges a coherent relationship among NATO's future defense strategy, employment doctrine, and force posture can ensure these changes are well-managed, thus leaving NATO with a viable conventional defense strategy even if forces are smaller than they are now.
The New World Order and Army Doctrine: The Doctrinal Renaissance of Operations Short of War? - 1992
J. M. Taw, R. C. Leicht
This report examines the development of Army doctrine relevant to military operations short of war and noncombat operations and how doctrinal treatment of nonconventional operations affects the Army's capabilities in low intensity conflict (LIC) environments. The report concludes that progress toward a workable, integrated LIC doctrine has been slow, but is occurring. Doctrinal manuals currently in draft should be published without fundamental changes, enabling the Army to move toward a better doctrine for guiding its efforts in this area. It also concludes that the Army cannot continue to maintain its focus on conventional conflict as the primary ingredient of success to the exclusion of nonconventional capabilities. For the U.S. military to play a successful supporting role in peacetime or in conflict-whether through training of international military students, civil affairs, or various forms of civic action-U.S. troops themselves must be adequately versed in the precepts of internal defense and development, LIC and sensitive political environments, civil-military relations, and respect for human rights.
Performance-Oriented Logistics Assessment (POLA): Executive Summary - 1992
J. H. Bigelow
Performance-Oriented Logistics Assessment (POLA) has developed a prototype methodology to help build the logistics portion of the Army five-year program. The POLA methodology estimates both the costs and the effects on combat performance of alternative logistics improvements. By comparing their costs and effects on combat performance, one can arrive at a balanced program that provides greater combat effectiveness for each logistics dollar spent. This report briefly reviews the POLA methodology and its uses. (See also R-3814, N-3354, N-3393.)
Performance-Oriented Logistics Assessment (POLA): Users' Manual for the Logistics Decision Model (LDM), Version IV - 1992
J. H. Bigelow
This report is a user's manual for the Logistics Decision Model (LDM), which was developed by the Performance-Oriented Logistics Assessment (POLA) project to help build the logistics portion of the Army five-year program. POLA estimates the effects on combat performance of alternative investments in logistics resources. LDM simulates the ways that Red and Blue combat forces are influenced by combat service support capacities (e.g., transportation, ammunition handling, maintenance) and logistics resources (e.g., stocks of ammunition, war reserve equipment, replacement personnel). By itself, LDM cannot do all that is required of the POLA methodology. It can estimate the effect on combat performance of varying the capacities to perform certain logistics functions, such as ammunition handling, but those capacities must be estimated from physical resources. LDM reads data from four different types of input files: the ATTRITION file contains data that relate the outcomes of combat to the numbers and kinds of weapons engaged; the SUPPORT files describe the structure and activities that support the combat forces; the TIME PHASE file specifies the amount of each resource that enters the simulation; and the OUT SPEC files specify what variables appear in the output files. LDM contains two modules that perform computations: the support module computes the rates of all activities performed by the theater support structure to make weapons available for combat, and the combat module computes the outcomes of combat between the available Blue and Red weapons. Activities (and many combat outcomes) are defined by their effects on resources, such as consumption, production, or transport. (See also R-3823, N-3354, N-3393.)
The Rise and Fall of National Security Decisionmaking in the Former USSR: Implications for Russia and the Commonwealth - 1992
H. Gelman
This report examines the Soviet political-military mechanisms used in the Gorbachev era for national security decisionmaking and explains how the struggle over control of those mechanisms contributed to the events that led to the failed August 1991 coup. The report argues that during the months leading up to the August coup, the leaders of the military-industrial complex discovered that the centrifugal process in the USSR steadily whittled away at their traditional ability to use central institutions to carry out unilateral decisions affecting the republics, and that a prominent motive for the coup was the hope of halting that process by preventing the imminent signing of a union treaty that would formalize a vast further reduction in the degree of influence those leaders enjoyed. The critical issue of the ideological leanings of the actors involved in whatever new supreme institutions for national security coordinating and decisionmaking eventually reemerge in Russia was underscored in the spring of 1992 by disturbing signs that Yeltsin was coming under increasing pressure to make concessions to the traditionally dominant forces in the military institution.
Simulation Support of Large-Scale Exercises: A REFORGER Case Study - 1992
P. D. Allen
This report describes an analysis of the Caravan Guard (CG) 89 and Centurion Shield (CS) 90 exercises. The study examines four different exercise training modes (both live and simulated) employed in CG 89 and CS 90 exercises: field training exercise, command field exercise, command post exercise; and computer-assisted exercise. The analysis leads to three recommendations for future large-scale multi- echelon exercises. First, exercises should consist of a single training mode and that should be simulation. Second, if simulations become the primary mode, a number of limitations affecting the current family of simulations must be overcome. Broad areas needing improvement include the representation of the effect of combined arms, the types of battles, aspects of how the operational level of war is depicted, the "fog and friction of war," and intelligence functions and products. Third, whenever possible, exercises should include both Active and Reserve component units and forces and other services and nations.
Turkey Faces East: New Orientations Toward the Middle East and the Old Soviet Union - 1992
G. E. Fuller
This report explores the roots of Turkey's eastern orientation and the prospects for Turkish relations with the Middle East and former Soviet Union. The study finds that although Turkey has for years been at the geopolitical tail-end of Europe, it is now in the center of a newly emerging world. New relations to the south, east, and north are becoming increasingly vital to Ankara's interests. The study also finds that because U.S. interests in the region are less important with the end of the Cold War, U.S. influence over Turkey will probably be less. Still, the study recommends that because of the constructive role Turkey can play in the region, Turkey should be tied closely to the European Community and that effort should be taken to prevent a wall from emerging between "Christian" Europe and a Muslim Middle East-a wall that could intensify a North-South struggle in the decades ahead.
Two Shades of Green: Environmental Protection and Combat Training - 1992
D. S. Rubenson, J. Aroesty, C. Thompsen
This report discusses the implications of environmental restrictions on combat training. Of the two types of environmental challenges the Army faces-rule-based legislation, generally associated with EPA-implemented regulation, and planning or procedural law related to conservation, preservation, and land management practice-the latter has greater potential to influence the military mission and is harder for the Army to deal with. This is clear for Fort Bragg, where the Army initially failed to grasp the elements of a suitable response to enforcing the Endangered Species Act (ESA) by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FSW) over the Red Cockaded Woodpeckers (RCW), a federally listed endangered species. As a result, Fort Bragg was forced to implement a plan that may degrade its military mission over time, something it might have avoided if it had early on offered a plan that protected RCWs while seeking to minimize restrictions on training. Although installations vary, the study argues that the lessons of Fort Bragg can be generalized to form the foundation for a broad proactive Army strategy.
The VISION Assessment System: Class IX Sustainment Planning - 1992
C. L. Tsai, R. Tripp, M. B. Berman
This report describes the underlying motivation, characteristics, and possible applications of the VISION (Visibility of Support Options) Assessment System, a decision support system designed to improve the ability of Army logisticians to address three issues that are fundamental to Class IX (spare parts) sustainment planning: (1) assessing whether the logistics system can support operational needs and objectives throughout the course of a planned conflict, (2) determining where and when problems are likely to emerge and how serious they are likely to be, and (3) identifying what can be done beforehand to avoid or mitigate those potential problems. Among the potential uses of the VISION Assessment System, the authors identify (1) assessing and improving the supportability of existing operation plans (OPLANs), (2) evaluating and choosing among alternative courses of action during OPLAN development, (3) identifying effective peacetime strategies for overcoming potential wartime problems, (4) examining new concepts and establishing new doctrine, (5) exploring cost-reduction strategies and weighing tradeoffs among different resources, and (6) reporting unit sustainability.
Arms Control Regimes and Ballistic Missile Defense - 1991
M. D. Miller, H. L. Weisberg, W. R. Harris, S. M. S. Everingham, K. J. Hoffmayer, H. G. Hoover, B. Wolf
This study (1) examines arms control agendas that include substantial roles for ballistic missile defense (BMD) and (2) arms control architectures that would support such agendas. It reviews the national security objectives that pertain to strategic offensive and defensive forces and then describes a spectrum of six candidate arms control/BMD agendas, two of which--thin-area BMD and defense dominance--are identified as having enhanced potential to fulfill national security objectives without significantly degrading strategic stability. The report also determines, for ground- and spaced-based thin-area BMD architectures and a base case set of threats, the weapon deployment levels required to provide various degrees of threat negation capability. It also considers the role of arms control treaties in achieving a thin-area BMD within the framework of U.S.-Soviet cooperation. Finally, it discusses cooperative deployment of thin-area BMD within a broad context of goals for a structured strategic defense program.
Defense Policy and Low-Intensity Conflict: The Development of Britain's 'Small Wars' Doctrine During the 1950s - 1991
B. Hoffman, J. M. Taw
This report examines the planning and conduct of three counterinsurgency campaigns waged by Great Britain in Malaya, Kenya, and Cyprus during the 1950s. Certain mistakes were repeated in each conflict, from which the following lessons can be drawn: (1) the administration, police, and military should be coordinated under a single individual; (2) intelligence gathering and collation should be coordinated under a single authority; (3) late recognition of an insurgency is costly; (4) large-scale formal operations should not be emphasized in lieu of special forces operations; (5) routine police work should continue; and (6) without sufficient low-intensity-conflict training for troops and appropriate materiel, the conflict will last longer and cost more. The authors point out that situational factors must be considered in an insurgency; also critical is the nature of the insurgency, especially the broadness of its appeal.
Developing Robust Support Structures for High-Technology Subsystems: The AH-64 Apache Helicopter - 1991
M. L. Robbins, M. B. Berman, D. W. McIver, W. E. Mooz, J. Schank
Using data on the high-technology subsystems of the AH-64 Apache attack helicopter, this report hypothesizes five alternative logistics structures (two traditional ones that rely on conventional depot support of intermediate repair and three that focus on more responsive support) and evaluates them in terms of comparative cost-effectiveness and robustness. The study found that the responsive support alternatives featuring Special Repair Activity (SRA) support of critical items or fast-turnaround continental U.S. (CONUS) depots tied to the theater by assured rapid transportation offer a means for providing cost-effective support of the Apache in a variety of conditions. The research substantiates previous RAND research on the M-1 tank that argued that the Army must increase the responsiveness in its logistics structures or face a loss in combat capability. (See also R-3673, R-3793)
Enlistment Effects of the 2 + 2 + 4 Recruiting Experiment - 1991
R. J. Buddin
This report describes the enlistment effects of the Army's 2+2+4 recruiting experiment, which was aimed at attracting high-quality personnel into the active Army and encouraging their later participation in the reserves. These effects were estimated through a job-offer experiment that estimated how the program affected the recruits' choices among skills and terms of service and through a geographic experiment that assessed whether the program led to a "market expansion"--i.e., an increase in the total number of high-quality persons entering the active Army. Overall, the program seems to have accomplished its objectives for active-duty recruiting. The 2+2+4 option sold readily and benefited virtually all the occupational specialties for which it was tested. During the test, about 7 percent of all male high-quality enlistments contracts were written under the program. Moreover, the analysis indicates that the program attracted high-quality recruits into the Army and caused only a small number to change from a longer term of service to a shorter one. (See also R-2935, R-3353, N-3187.)
The Ethnic Factor in the Soviet Armed Forces: The Muslim Dimension - 1991
T. S. Szayna
Open ethnic conflict has swept the entire Soviet Union during the last few years. The Muslims already have had a powerful negative impact on the efficiency of the Soviet military. This report examines the Muslim dimension of the ongoing ethnonational ferment affecting the Soviet armed forces. In particular, it analyzes the impact of the rapidly increasing Muslim cohort on the cohesion of the Soviet military by focusing on factors affecting the ability and reliability of Muslim servicemen today. Problems such as language deficiencies, trainability, and socialization are discussed in detail, as are efforts by the military leadership to ameliorate them. The author critiques some earlier methods for dealing with the subject and considers the implications of the ethnic ferment for armed forces reform.
An Evaluation of the VISION Execution System Demonstration Prototypes - 1991
P. Boren, K. Isaacson, J. Payne, M. L. Robbins, R. Tripp
This report describes the prototype development for a U.S. Army combat-oriented logistics execution system with VISION (Visibility of Support Options). The Army calls this system the Readiness-Based Maintenance System (RBMS). RBMS prioritizes repair and distribution of spare parts by maximizing the probability of meeting unit-level weapon system availability goals. The report discusses the feasibility, effectiveness, and usability of RBMS through the use of analytic demonstration prototypes. It outlines the methodology behind RBMS and describes the outputs it produces. It then presents findings on RBMS's potential value for the Army, describes the input data requirements and the availability of usable data in present Army data systems, and discusses evaluation results of the demonstration prototypes. Finally, the report presents prospective users' evaluations of the perceived usefulness of the system and suggestions for its improvement.
The Fate of the Party Apparatus Under Gorbachev - 1991
M. Rush
For most of its history, the Soviet political system has been dominated by the Communist Party's permanent staff--the party apparatus, or apparat. The apparat has been charged with executing such vital functions as managing the party apparatus itself, and recruiting persons with the requisite skills and political loyalties; controlling other institutions of the regime, choosing their leaders, and checking on their performance; servicing the Politburo, alerting it to the need for policy decisions, and drafting the directives required to activate the relevant institutions; and monitoring these massive and recalcitrant bureaucracies and ensuring that the party's directives are implemented. The apparat's performance in carrying out these functions is indicated by the sad state of the Soviet Union when Gorbachev became head of the party apparatus, the General Secretary, in 1985. In the following five years, Gorbachev moved from a concern with revitalizing the apparat to enable it to perform its traditional functions more effectively to a concern with emancipating the legislative and executive "branches" of the Soviet government from heavy-handed party control. This report traces Gorbachev's effort and assesses its consequences.
German Unification and Its Ramifications - 1991
R. D. Asmus
This report assesses the political, economic, foreign, and security policy implications of German unification and draws the central conclusion that unification has fundamentally transformed Germany's position and role in Europe. The author identifies four dangers facing German policymakers: (1) residual uncertainties of German domestic politics in the wake of unification; (2) the possibility that Germany will not engineer its political and economic integration into the European Community as quickly or as comprehensively as it hopes; (3) the chance that Germany will be overwhelmed by the problems of political and economic reconstruction farther to the east; and (4) Germany's need to develop and sustain a satisfactory relationship with the Soviet Union when the Soviet state is fragmented. The U.S. role in Germany and Europe will not be one of a controller or mentor, but rather one of a key leadership partner in the Western world; the United states will be a key interlocutor with the Soviet Union on security issues.
Lessons for Contemporary Counterinsurgencies: The Rhodesian Experience - 1991
B. Hoffman, J. M. Taw, D. W. Arnold
This report examines the counterinsurgency campaign waged by Rhodesia between 1965 and 1980. Its purpose is to analyze the lessons learned from the Rhodesian conflict and assess the relevance of these lessons both to United States low-intensity-conflict training and doctrine and to the insurgencies occurring at this time in Central America. The research concentrated on the four areas common to most insurgencies: (1) security force organization and attendant command-control-communication issues; (2) countermeasures to suppress urban terrorism; (3) rural pacification and security; and (4) intelligence collection, collation, and dissemination. The greatest challenge facing the U.S. Army in evolving a credible and coherent low-intensity-conflict doctrine today is overcoming the institutional barriers that inhibit change and adaptation. The Army must adjust its dominant conventional war-fighting mindset to the vagaries and complexities of warfare at the low end of the conflict spectrum.
A New Approach for the Design and Evaluation of Land Defense Concepts - 1991
P. J. Romero
The U.S. Army has made the development of new concepts for land warfare a priority since the early 1980s. Unfortunately, few techniques have been available to help design or evaluate concepts in a rigorous, objective way. This report contains the results of a two-year effort to develop an intellectual framework for thinking about, designing, and evaluating land defense concepts. It is aimed at making the process by which the Army develops and evaluates concepts more rigorous and more efficient. The suggested improvements are of three types: (1) a typology--drawn from Army doctrine, NATO defense plans, and unofficial NATO defense concepts since the late 1940s--that allows different concepts to be described concretely and compared using a common vocabulary; (2) a review of the strengths and weaknesses of the Army's current approach for developing and evaluating concepts (the Concept-Based Requirements System, or CBRS) and a proposed analytic framework to ameliorate some of the shortcomings; and (3) a microcomputer-based, low-resolution Method of Screening Concepts of Warfare (MOSCOW), which can be used to refine and compare concept ideas in a systematic, quantitative way.
Strategic Planning for the United States Army Personnel Function - 1991
W. M. Hix, R. E. Sortor
This report reviews and evaluates how much strategic planning concepts used in private industry can be applied to the Army and provides recommendations for improving the Army's ability to do effective strategic planning for a changing and uncertain future. The study recommends that the Army adopt a process patterned on the private industry model because, unlike the Army process, the latter process explicitly considers future uncertainty and evaluates strategy alternatives to deal with it. The process for the proposed strategic planning concept should start by defining and prioritizing goals and objectives. It should then define relevant dimensions of the operating environment and explore alternative future environments. Finally, the process should develop strategies (shaping, operating, and hedging) and define the resulting environment within which the Army plans to operate. The study further recommends that the revised process be implemented incrementally over the next two-year planning cycle.
West German Military Modernization Goals, Resources, and Conventional Arms Control - 1991
J. E. Nation
This report compares the financial requirements of modernizing West German military forces with a range of budgetary resources both with and without negotiated conventional force reductions in Europe. The analysis focuses on the evolution of economic and demographic constraints on long-term West German defense planning, projects resource-requirement imbalances, and examines potential reactions to imbalances. The author concludes that reactions by Ministry of Defense (MoD) planners will vary depending on the emerging security environment and the results of West Germany's security debate. If substantial shortfalls appear likely, planners may be forced to make difficult choices, ranging from stretching out procurement purchases to making large personnel reductions and abandoning specific missions. However, MoD plans will probably be influenced more by changes in Soviet and Warsaw Pact member defense efforts.
The Army in a Changing World: The Role of Organizational Vision - 1990
J. K. Setear, C. H. Builder, M. D. Baccus, E. W. Madewell
This report is about the Army's future and the role an organizational vision for the Army can play in that future. The authors suggest that for an Army that wishes to adapt to the changing national security planning environment, the key element is the Army's vision of itself, its sense of identity and purpose, of what it is and what it is about. While the Army's essential institutional planning problem over the past 40 years has largely been one of managing budget, personnel, and technological resources, the problem for the future may involve reconceiving the Army to meet new threats to the nation's security or to minimize institutional damage. Although the Army has no explicitly acknowledged current organizational vision, its institutional thoughts and actions do reflect a widely shared sense of identity and purpose as the ready armored defender of Central Europe. If the authors projections of planning trends materialize, this current vision puts the Army on a collision course with what is perceived as its post-Cold War future. A fundamental choice may have to be made between the Army's current combat role and its former historical role as a provider of noncombat military services to the nation. Of the eight alternative visions of the Army that the authors pose, they believe the most relevant and realistic ones call for a U.S.-based Army performing general military service that may rely on either active or reserve forces.
The Army's Role in Counterinsurgency and Insurgency - 1990
S. T. Hosmer
This report identifies potential initiatives for improving Army doctrine and capabilities for counterinsurgency and insurgency warfare. These include recommendations that the Army (1) build and maintain small cadres of counterinsurgency and insurgency experts; (2) create, along with the other services, a counterinsurgency institute to train U.S. and foreign nationals; and (3) ensure more appropriate and effective U.S. arms and equipment transfers to countries facing insurgent threats. The author also examines the reasons insurgency is likely to continue to be a frequent form of conflict; describes the threat of insurgency to important U.S. interests in the Third World; explores the potential for U.S. Army noncombat support to Third World countries fighting insurgency; describes the impediments to U.S. influence and assistance; outlines the potential situations that might lead to U.S. involvement in counterinsurgency combat; and discusses the Army's role in support of friendly insurgency.
British Military Requirements, Resources, and Conventional Arms Control - 1990
J. E. Nation
British military leaders face a formidable challenge in the next 15 years as they modernize their forces. The financial requirements of modernization efforts will be large, especially since replacement equipment is almost always more expensive than its predecessors. Modernization requirements will be substantial, even with conventional force reduction agreements that cut forces deeply. Other factors complicate Britain's military modernization efforts: Demographic pressures will probably make recruiting Britain's all-volunteer force both more difficult and more costly. In turn, increasing personnel costs may reduce defense resources available for investment and jeopardize the acquisition of replacement equipment. A reduced Warsaw Pact threat will also probably reduce defense resources. This report compares the financial requirements of achieving British modernization goals with a range of projected budgetary resources. The financial requirements of major equipment production with projected resources are estimated in two cases: in the absence of conventional arms control in Europe, and following a Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement.
The Concept of Operations for a U.S. Army Combat-Oriented Logistics Execution System with VISION (Visibility of Support Options) - 1990
R. Tripp, M. B. Berman, C. L. Tsai
This report describes a concept of operations for a decision support system intended to assist field- and wholesale-level logisticians to prioritize repair and distribution actions for high-technology reparable items. The system recognizes that uncertainties will cause imbalances between requirements for high-tech components and their availability in both peacetime and wartime and enables logisticians to adjust their actions to compensate for unanticipated events. The system maximizes the probability of achieving specific weapon system availability goals over a given short-term horizon with available resources. Initial investigations have shown that a logistics system that couples responsive repair and distribution capabilities with such a decision support system could significantly improve weapon system availability over the current system using the same amount of stock and repair resources. The Army has developed plans to field-test the concept, which it refers to as the Readiness-Based Maintenance System (RBMS). RBMS has been incorporated as an element of the Strategic Logistics Program, which is aimed at modernizing the Army's Logistics Information Systems.
Decision Support for the Wartime Theater Ammunition Distribution System: Research Accomplishments and Future Directions - 1990
J. Schank, B. Leverich, J. Paul
Flexible and responsive management systems can allocate limited logistic resources in ways that maximize combat capability. This research identified uncertainty and complexity as the key problems facing the management of the wartime theater ammunition distribution system. Early in the study, three research areas were identified: a system data model should be developed, a quantitative evaluation mechanism was required, and narrow-purpose expert systems could improve decision support. A prototype knowledge-based simulation creates models of material management centers, movement control centers, and other ammunition managers. A method was developed to identify decisionmaking problems appropriate for expert system solutions. Questions concern whether a problem is appropriate, whether the development of an expert system is feasible, and whether expert system developments can be justified. The authors noted a need for developing expert systems in domains where knowledge is scarce and building a portable and extensible laboratory environment for training and evaluation purposes.
Gorbachev's First Five Years in the Soviet Leadership: The Clash of Personalities and the Remaking of Institutions - 1990
H. Gelman
This report provides an overview of the dilemmas that arose from Gorbachev's efforts to change the Soviet Union during his first five years in power. The study seeks to show how the conflicts in various arenas of Soviet life have affected each other. The author reviews the struggle among the Soviet leaders from the spring of 1985 through the spring of 1990. Because the economic dimension is probably the decisive one, the report first traces how and why the Soviet leaders arrived at their present economic predicament. The study then reviews the purely political aspects of the leadership struggle as it evolved and the implications of Gorbachev's emerging political reforms. It discusses the main features of the nationality crisis as they affected Gorbachev. The study then considers the evolution of Gorbachev's relations with the military and their institutional consequences. Finally, it weighs the implications of the political role of the KGB for the Gorbachev leadership.
Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design - 1990
J. S. Hodges, R. A. Pyles
Policy analysis has always involved great uncertainty. Tools have been available for handling some of that uncertainty, but policy analysis work in many fields has fallen into stereotyped problem formulations and analytical approaches. In particular, treatments of uncertainty are typically incomplete and often conceptually wrong. This report argues that these shortcomings produce pervasive systematic biases in analyses. It describes and discusses the common mode of policy analysis and identifies its two main shortcomings--omission of crucial sources of uncertainty and neglect of systems' ability to respond to the unexpected. It categorizes some varieties of uncertainty relevant to policy analysis and presents examples of ways they are commonly represented. Finally, it discusses designing and evaluating systems, and presents a collection of generic strategies for uncertain situations.
Supporting Combined-Arms Combat Capability with Shared Electronic Maintenance Facilities - 1990
W. G. Wild
The U.S. Army shows signs of shifting away from using "weapon-system-specific" test diagnostic equipment and toward using more broadly capable versions that can isolate faults within subsystems and components from a number of different weapon systems (e.g., the proposed integrated family of test equipment, IFTE). As a result, weapon systems that once had uncontested access to specialized test equipment will now be relying on a common facility, and, hence, their availabilities become linked. This study focuses on two systems--the M1 tank and M2/M3 Bradley fighting vehicle--that are linked through a common reliance on direct support electrical systems test set (DSESTS) test equipment. The author finds that greater weapon system availability and more robust support may be attainable at constant cost by emphasizing resources that are fungible across weapon systems, such as test equipment and improved theater transportation for selected high-priority items. The report also demonstrates a multiple weapon systems methodology that is instrumental in identifying such potential improvements.
East Germany's Military: Forces and Expenditures - 1989
K. Crane
This report assesses the current and future contribution of the East German armed forces to the Warsaw Pact and attempts to determine whether their role in the Pact has changed in recent years. The study assesses the veracity of East German military spending figures and estimates costs of personnel, procurement of military durables, and arms trade. It compares East German military capabilities with those of Czechoslovakia, Poland, and the Group of Soviet Forces Germany, and finds that with the exception of the East German navy, rates of modernization in these forces have either exceeded or kept pace with those in East Germany. The report also estimates military manpower needs and compares them with demographic projections of 18-year-old cohorts. The study finds that East Germany will be unable to sustain current force levels with present terms of enlistment. The study also assesses East Germany's ability to sustain or increase current military expenditure levels in the 1990s and finds that the East Germans will have difficulty in increasing expenditure levels at past rates. The study concludes with a set of policy recommendations for conventional arms negotiations.
Evaluating Intelligence Systems That Support Deep Fires - 1989
F. A. Camm, N. Z. Shapiro, R. H. Anderson, J. J. Gillogly, J. L. LaCasse, M. LaCasse
Current U.S. Army doctrine emphasizes the importance of extending command emphasis to include not just the close battle but the deep battle. It calls for the use of Deep Fires and maneuver to exploit the deep portion of the battlefield. This report presents an analytic approach that could simulate the development of combat intelligence about the deep battlefield and compare the performance of alternative intelligence systems to support Deep Fires. It emphasizes the development of intelligence products that the Army could use to support the Army tactical missile system in a Central European war in the mid-1990s. It draws on observations of combat intelligence activities during several U.S. and NATO command-post exercises in Germany from 1986 to 1988 and on Army-approved European scenarios and Army combat and intelligence collection models to provide inputs to the simulation of the intelligence system as a whole. The analytic approach presented here employs a set of new techniques for modeling the quality of information in an intelligence system. It uses simple Bayesian logic to develop a high-level view of intelligence processing and realizes it in a flexible, parameterized, rule-based network model.
Families in the Army: Looking Ahead - 1989
P. A. Morrison, G. Vernez, D. W. Grissmer, K. McCarthy
This study considers how aggregate demand for Army family services will change in the future and identifies long-range issues posed by the changes in Army families. The Army will be drawn further into the realm of family concerns that Army personnel themselves face because (1) the "early" pattern of Army family formation and growth will continue to compress family-related needs into the early years of Army service; (2) the changing division of labor within families will generate competing obligations to the Army and to one's family members; and (3) the growing orientation toward paid employment among younger generations of Army spouses foreshadows a growing demand for day care, Army assistance in lining up jobs, and diminished flexibility in traditional volunteer activities. The number of Army family dependents will likely decline, not increase, between 1985 and 2000, although Army actions and policies could potentially modify that future. Four long-range issues deserve closer study and continued monitoring: (1) employment opportunities for Army spouses, (2) the growing proportion of women among single parents, (3) readiness, and (4) potential "hidden" effects of Army practices and policies.
Gorbachev and the New Soviet Agenda in the Third World - 1989
F. Fukuyama
This report, part of a study of the types of threats that Army planners might encounter in the Third World, evaluates the impact that Mikhail Gorbachev has had thus far on Soviet Third World policy, as well as prospects for future evolution. The study evaluates new Soviet thinking on foreign policy and measures the changes in rhetoric against actual Soviet behavior. It analyzes the new Soviet emphasis on the large states of the Third World. As an example of this new Soviet diplomacy, it presents a detailed case study of Soviet policy toward the Persian Gulf in 1986-1987.
Implementing the Battle Command Training Program - 1989
J. P. Kahan, D. R. Worley, S. M. Holroyd, L. C. Pleger, C. M. Stasz
This report presents the results of a RAND study examining the implementation of the U.S. Army's Battle Command Training Program (BCTP), which consists of three phases: a five-day Battle Seminar of workshops and decision exercises, a week-long computer-driven command post exercise (called the WarFighter Exercise) three to six months after the seminar, and a take-home Sustainment Exercise four to six months after the WarFighter Exercise. The report examines the BCTP based on the common understanding between the BCTP and its clients about its purposes, methods, and evaluation criteria, and on the data collection and analysis strategies required of the BCTP to provide feedback to client units and to higher-echelon doctrinal and readiness agencies. The authors make recommendations designed to increase the BCTP's ability to improve Army training both in terms of short-term issues of individual division readiness and long-term issues of higher-echelon command and control.
LHX Helicopter and Tilt Rotor Flight Simulator Experiment - 1989
C. T. Veit, M. Callero, B. J. Rose, L. M. Jamison
The LHX (Light Helicopter Experimental) flight simulator experiment was designed to identify differences between an LHX helicopter and tilt rotor in performance, target engagement, and evasion of an enemy air-defense threat. Ten experienced helicopter pilots flew 17 mission tasks in both aircraft simulators. The helicopter significantly outperformed the tilt rotor in the four tasks requiring primary bob-down and lateral-mask evasion tactics. The tilt rotor significantly outperformed the helicopter in eight tasks; pilots accelerated and decelerated faster with less severe pitch attitudes, and the tilt rotor's pitch-pointing capability reduced engagement and evasion times against elevated and depressed targets. Four Army pilots completed a questionnaire in which they judged the tilt rotor to be more operationally effective than the helicopter in eight of the ten combat situations presented. The authors recommend that the Army further investigate the tilt rotor's potential, regardless of its LHX decision.
The Nicaraguan Resistance and U.S. Policy: Report on a May 1987 Conference - 1989
D. F. Ronfeldt, B. Jenkins
This report presents the results of A, 1987 RAND conference on the Nicaraguan Resistance and U.S. Policy Implications. The conference, part of RAND's Western Hemisphere Forum, included presentations on (1) background of the resistance and U.S. support for it, (2) the strategic poverty of the Reagan Administration's vision regarding Nicaragua, (3) the Nicaraguan resistance in transition, (4) Sandinista strategy, and (5) diplomatic-political options in Nicaragua. The conference participants had varied backgrounds in official diplomatic and military capacities and in political activism, policy analysis, or policy-oriented research.
Terrorists and the Potential Use of Biological Weapons: A Discussion of Possibilities - 1989
J. Simon
This report considers the potential for terrorists to use biological weapons. It discusses the implications of recent trends in terrorism for the future use of biological agents and the reasons terrorists might be motivated to use them. It then identifies several constraints that inhibit terrorists from venturing into this new type of conflict and the factors that could break down these constraints. Finally, it establishes some broad characteristics that could identify the types of terrorist groups that might be more likely than others to use biological weapons. The findings suggest that, since the technological, logistical, and financial barriers to the use of biological agents are not insurmountable, a key determinant in the potential use of such agents will be the willingness of terrorists to engage in this new type of violence. Therefore, efforts to improve intelligence regarding terrorist group strategies and capabilities will become increasingly critical in the future.
Understanding Commanders' Information Needs - 1989 (reissued 2000)
J. P. Kahan, D. R. Worley, C. M. Stasz
Based on observations of Army Group, corps, and division command posts in action over 12 different exercises and on interviews with a variety of military experts (including doctrine writers and former commanders), this report discusses the information needs of commanders of higher-echelon Army units. The authors attempted to determine the reasons commanders and staff communicated information and to clarify the intended uses of that information. They identified three different modes of command-post-level communication--pipeline, alarm, and tree. Each mode is indicative of a different communication relationship between a commander and his staff, and each places different demands on the command-and-control operating system. To fulfill commanders' information needs, the authors recommend a number of education and training measures: (1) institutionalize back-briefing, (2) teach process as well as procedures, and (3) train unit command staffs to share images. As for the design of information systems, they recommend that the Army (1) identify means of more direct image sharing, (2) build a hybrid information system, and (3) establish an end-user to end-user communications orientation.
Army 21 as the U.S. Army's Future Warfighting Concept: A Critical Review of Approach and Assumptions - 1988
Y. Ben-Horin, B. C. Schwarz
This report discusses an attempt to identify the major problems with the existing Army 21 Interim Operational Concept and suggests an alternative framework for the Army's study of future warfighting concepts. With the current Army doctrine--AirLand Battle--as the baseline, the plausible variations in implementation should be made over the next 10 to 15 years. The objective would be to project an estimate of Army needs and preferences. A long-term exploration effort would extend 30 to 40 years, where projections are necessarily highly speculative. Essentially deductive, this effort would consider a range of visions and would highlight generic developments. The purpose would be to stimulate conceptual thinking by contrasting different concepts, profiting from comparisons and choices between and among them.
Design, Performance, and Cost of Alternative LHX Configurations - 1988
G. K. Smith, G. F. Acker, J. H. Bigelow, D. Dreyfuss, S. V. LaForge, R. Y. Pei, S. A. Resetar, R. L. Petruschell
This report describes the methods used to compare alternative designs of helicopter and tilt rotor configurations, and alternative versions of an upgraded AH-64 Apache, that might be developed for the Army LHX (Light Helicopter Experimental) mission. It presents vehicle configuration, performance, and cost characteristics for several alternative LHX options.
Evaluating the Combat Payoff of Alternative Logistics Structures for High-Technology Subsystems - 1988
M. B. Berman, D. W. McIver, M. L. Robbins, J. Schank
This report identifies and evaluates alternative logistics structures that better support high-technology subsystems used by major U.S. Army weapon systems. It uses a new methodology to examine combat logistics structures. The report begins with a base case in which one set of M-1 tank test equipment is located in each Forward Support Battalion. It uses RAND's Dyna-METRIC model to assess the costs and benefits of alternative logistics structures relative to this base case. The alternative logistics structures were selected to examine the influence of different structural characteristics: (1) consolidating test equipment and personnel at higher echelons to increase responsiveness to variations in demand at lower echelons; (2) decentralizing test equipment and personnel to maneuver battalions to increase battalion unity of command; (3) varying the amounts of test equipment and personnel to examine the effect on repair queues; and (4) increasing the spare parts distribution system's responsiveness. The authors conclude that the Army must either increase the responsiveness of its logistics structures or invest inordinate amounts in inventories to prevent losses in combat capability.
Inside the Soviet Army in Afghanistan - 1988
A. Alexiev
This report on the Soviet army in Afghanistan focuses on morale, discipline, motivation, and cohesion. It is based on interviews with former members of the Soviet armed forces in Afghanistan, interviews with Afghan resistance leaders and former officers, and a literature search. The report examines major factors that negatively affect morale and discipline: indoctrination, personnel relations, drugs and alcohol, quality of life, atrocities and looting, and theft and corruption. Such factors have led to infractions ranging from insubordination to fragging. The author finds their operational significance difficult to assess but believes that the relevance of possible systemic vulnerabilities to an East-West conflict should be explored. The report concludes that Soviet war conduct is not motivated by ethical considerations; thus, the Soviets can be expected to disregard conventions.
Surveying Relevant Emerging Technologies for the Army of the Future: Lessons from Forecast II - 1988
R. E. Darilek, E. M. Cesar, J. A. Dewar, G. Gould, E. D. Harris, J. Hiland, K. P. Horn, M. M. Nelsen, K. E. Phillips, J. H. Rosen
This study evaluated the U.S. Air Force's survey of emerging technologies of the future, Project Forecast II, for its relevance to the Army's potential requirements for the future, as indicated by the Army 21 Interim Operational Concept. The study concluded that there is a high correlation between the Army's needs and the technologies identified in Forecast II, although the Army could benefit from a poll of its contractors to uncover more Army-relevant technologies. In addition, by using systems as the bridge between projected technologies and specified military capability requirements, as the Air Force did in Forecast II, the Army could take advantage of a valuable means of establishing and gauging the relevance of emerging technologies to future requirements.
The Army in the Strategic Planning Process: Who Shall Bell the Cat? - 1987
C. H. Builder
This report documents individual research undertaken by the author during a one-year assignment to the Army's Concepts Analysis Agency as their Distinguished Visiting Analyst. The research explored the definition and significance of strategy, comparative analysis of the three services on various aspects (particularly their approaches to strategy), and a close study of the Army's unique problems and opportunities regarding strategic planning. The author suggests that the Army is in a special position to participate in the strategic planning process--through the "daring deed" of determining price tags for our explicit national commitments to use military force. Those price tags include the military (as opposed to the political) objectives of our forces if they must fight, the adequacy and composition of our forces, and the risks the national leadership must accept in making or withdrawing those commitments. The risks of interservice strife of course pose a cost to the Army.
Forecasting the Wages of Young Men: The Effects of Cohort Size - 1985
H. W. Tan, M. P. Ward
In this study, the authors develop forecasts of the civilian wage structure over the next two decades for a variety of different scenarios. They focus on how the wage structure will change as the demographic trend reverses itself, i.e., as the smaller post-baby-boom birth cohorts enter the labor market in the 1980s and 1990s. Section II of the report describes the survey data used to create a working file for the analysis. Based on this file, the authors paint a broad overview of how cohort size and relative wages have changed over the 1967-1980 period. Section III discusses the wage model used and highlights the main empirical results. The assumptions and approach used to forecast wages are detailed in Sec. IV. Section V extends the wage model to investigate two alternative explanations for the observed decline in youth wages. The last section concludes with a summary of the main findings and their implications for military compensation policy.
Spatial Learning and Reasoning Skill - 1981
S. E. Goldin, P. W. Thorndyke
A series of studies undertaken to identify skills required for successful spatial performance. A study of requirements for distance estimation, self-orientation, and object location tasks supported the assumption that the type of spatial knowledge acquired depends on the learner's information source. A second study showed that filmed traversal of an unfamiliar route provides as much knowledge about landmarks, landmark sequence, and distances as a live tour, but not sufficient information about angles of turns to allow accurate self-orientation. Studies of cognitive mapping skill showed that good mappers excel at acquiring knowledge from navigation or maps, at manipulating information in memory, and in visual memory, visualization, and spatial orientation ability. Good and poor mappers do not differ in map reading, map interpretation, or navigation skill. Examination of two different strategies for learning a new environment from navigation indicated potential benefits from training strategies compatible with the learner's abilities.
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