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NOTES
The publications below are sorted by year and title.
Jump to: 1993 | 1992 | 1991 | 1990 | 1989 | 1988 | Prior to 1988
Air Combat Model Engagement and Attrition Processes High Level Design - 1993
P. D. Allen
This Note presents the high-level design document for air combat (engagement and attrition processes) for the theater-level or nonlinear combat (TLC/NLC) model and possibly, for the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS). The design includes many qualitative factors not traditionally included in previous air combat models, such as a representation of how intelligence affects the frequency and distribution of specific types of air-to-air, ground-to-air, and air-to- ground engagements. The design is intended to be implemented as either a stochastic or a deterministic model, with either low resolution or high resolution, depending on the needs of the user. Thus, the model is being designed so that each version will be readily comparable given similar inputs. The document describes the three main parts of the overall air combat assessment process: 1)determine whether or not penetrators are detected before reaching in engagement zones; 2) determine the sequence of ground-to-air, and air-to-air, and air-to-ground engagements; and 3) assess air-to-air, ground-to-air, and air to ground engagements in sequence determined for ingress and egress.
Azerbaijan, Central Asia, and Future Persian Gulf Security - 1993
T. W. Karasik
This Note examines the economic, religious, and ethnic connections between Transcaucasian and Central Asian Countries (CACs) and Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. The study finds that there is a growing interdependency between Azerbaijan and the CACs and Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia; that Russia is becoming increasingly estranged from Azerbaijan and the CACs in terms of economic relations and the perception of a religious threat to Russian security; that Turkish, Saudi, and Iranian involvement is weakening Azeri and CAC central authority; and that Iran is the focal point in the region. The study recommends that the United States encourage stability and the kinds of relationships (e.g., emerging international economic organizations) that will limit outbreaks of violence; that it not ignore other emerging states of the former Soviet Union in its focus on Russia; and that it recognize the risks of isolating Iran or siding with Turkey or Saudi Arabia against Iran in the battle over influence.
The Declining Threat to U.S. Interests - 1993
T. J. Hirschfeld
This Note identifies generic global and regional U.S. interests, suggests what threats to those interests remain, and postulates additional future risks the United States might face that might have military implications. The author argues that the world is fundamentally different from the world of the 1890s or the 1920s. For example, while the conquest of nature was still one of the agreed purposes of civilization, now its preservation is an agreed global purpose. He further argues that while military technology was only lethal then, now it threatens to annihilate species. These changes suggest that the most identifiable threats to U.S. interests are not amenable to military solutions (e.g., refugee and migration flows, drug problems, social unrest, unfriendly transnational political movements, ecological disasters, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and medical emergencies) and that instability may be a pervasive and unpleasant prospect, but not necessarily one which need involve American armed forces much.
HELICOST: A Helicopter Cost Model - 1993
D. Dreyfuss, J. Jarvaise
This Note provides a user's guide to the HELICOST model, illustrates its use by applying it to the LH (now Comanche) helicopter program, and presents the technical details underpinning the model's development. The model operates by taking data from the four components of a helicopter-airframe, the mission equipment package by subsystem, the engine, and the software-and computing a cost for them as a function of their weight for the first two, the shaft horsepower for the engine, and the number of lines of computer code for the last. The model provides costs for Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E), production, and total system. It is particularly useful for comparing contractor proposals or determining the effect of trade-offs between cost and performance; it also provides rapid recalculation of costs and ready graphical displays of information. In applying HELICOST to the Comanche helicopter, we found that HELICOST data compared quite favorably with the Army's estimate, coming within 4 percent of total cost.
Organizational Analysis and Resource Management Planning: Annotated Briefing - 1993
L. K. Lewis, C. R. Roll, R. E. Sortor, B. Rostker
This Note analyzes ways in which the Army might alter its organizational structure and program-building processes to better respond to OSD guidelines and the Army's resource needs. The Note discusses three alternative concepts of operation: Centralized Control (CC), whereby a neutral integrator (NI) owns all the relevant data and models; Structured Response (SR), which would allow staff proponents to function as intermediaries between the NI and the Major Commands (MACOMs); and Structured Dialogue (SD), in which the NI retains responsibility for all aggregate data bases and models, but the staff proponents and MACOMs own the data bases and develop options that are then presented to the NI. In terms of three selection criteria- effectiveness, efficiency, and implementation-the authors conclude that the SR option was the most beneficial to the Army. The Note recommends immediately establishing the Office of the NI, transferring functions to the new NI organization (e.g., integration, management of key program-building data bases), reorganizing the data base structure to support Planning, Programming, and Budgeting, and Execution System (PPBES), and developing planning and programming models.
Recommended Strategy for the Army's Role in Space - 1993
E. D. Harris, K. P. Horn, E. M. Cesar, P. S. Steinberg
This Note lays out a recommended strategy for the Army's role in space, drawing on research the Arroyo Center has performed in this area over the past seven years. The document argues that the Army should make supporting the battlefield commander its primary role in space, supplementing the argument with a discussion of how the Army used space to support the battlefield commander during Operations Desert Shield and Storm. It then argues that implementing this role requires modifying the Army's organization so that it emphasizes space, which involves institutionalizing space in the Army's warfighting doctrine, establishing a high-ranking authority, and correcting the requirements and acquisition process. The document then proposes that the Army pursue a two-part investment strategy that involves exploiting existing space systems and participating in satellite requirement studies. Finally, it argues that the Army needs to modify its operational procedures for space to deal with such issues as training and information distribution.
Tactical Satellite Orbital Simulation and Requirements Study - 1993
E. Bedrosian, E. M. Cesar, J. R. Clark, G. K. Huth, K. Poehlmann, P. Propper
This Note documents the results of a preliminary analysis of space communications requirements employing scenarios for military operations in three widely separated geographical areas where U.S. contingency operations could occur. The first scenario is set in Southwest Asia and is similar to Desert Shield/Storm, except with jamming; the second is set in Korea to typify a large operation between in-place forces, again with jamming; and the third is set in Argentina to typify a small operation in a remote location. Based on Desert Shield/Storm experience and on RAND's experience with military communications satellite systems, the study argues that jamming will present a serious threat and that jam-resistant communication satellites and portable tactical jam-resistant earth terminals must continue to be fielded and developed. To test the operational scenarios under realistic circumstances, a comprehensive computer simulation will need to be developed-one that involves developing a system configuration tool capable of configuring a satellite communication system using the specified equipment and communications requirements within the spatial and temporal relationships laid out in the scenarios.
Technology and Innovations in Future Warfare: Wargaming the Persian Gulf Case - 1993
B. W. Bennett, M. Cecchine, D. B. Fox, S. B. Gardiner
This Note describes three "Future of Warfare" games focusing on how a coalition of Iraqi and Iranian forces might employ their military forces to defeat the U.S. and its allies. These games employed a backward planning approach in which the players began with the political objectives and worked backward to determine the resulting military objectives, goals, and specific actions and conditions that would be required for success. In the first game, the players assumed the role of senior Iraqi and Iranian military planners working in 1992 to prepare for a war in 1997 or later with the goal of increasing oil revenues by controlling the Saudi peninsula. In the second and third games, the players assumed the role of senior military planners for the U.S. facing the Iraqi/Iranian coalition, which had, in ten days around the turn of the century, secured a large portion of the Arabian peninsula and fielded a number of new weapon systems. The players were asked to identify their military objectives and design a campaign to accomplish them.
U.S. Conventional Arms Control for Korea: A Proposed Approach - 1993
J. C. Wendt
This Note presents an approach for integrating arms control into the changing Korean security environment and for evaluating how alternative arms control measures affect U.S. interests. The study identifies five U.S. arms control objectives: maintain U.S. presence, minimize short-warning threat, eliminate ground force disparity, maintain a U.S. reinforcement capability, and produce a verifiable agreement. The study then finds that equipment reductions, which involve equal ceilings on three critical pieces of equipment, and U.S. reductions (above a residual amount) proportional to North Korean reductions, would meet four of the five objectives. (Exercise limitations and notifications would help meet the fifth one.) While the approach apparently satisfies South Korean objectives, it may not be enough for the North Koreans. Thus, if the United States and South Korea place a sufficiently high value on achieving their objectives, other political/economic incentives may have to be offered.
U.S. Space-Based Remote Sensing: Challenges and Prospects - 1993
D. J. Johnson, M. Nelson, R. J. Lempert
This Note presents a survey of remote sensing policy issues for the 1990s. The study concludes that as the utility of remote sensing data is more widely understood and appreciated, greater efforts to exploit that data in unique ways will increase, thus blurring the distinctions among users in the federal agencies, state and local governments, and private entities. It will then be up to the owners and operators of remote sensing systems to justify why their particular systems should remain unique. The study recommends that the U.S. government develop remote sensing policies from a more comprehensive perspective, derived from U.S. remote sensing goals, user needs, and the diverse organizations that can participate in meeting those needs; should determine where broadening needs or new technologies allow planned programs to be better coordinated or consolidated to avoid duplication of effort; should determine what areas are best pursued as public endeavors and as commercial or private ones; and should make remote sensing systems more responsive to user needs.
The Army Military Occupational Specialty Database - 1992
S. J. Kirin, J. D. Winkler
This Note describes a dataset that integrates training-related information from a variety of military and civilian sources, at the military occupational specialty (MOS) level of detail. The database describes all Army MOS authorized as of fiscal year 1990, including personnel management statistics, enlistment pre- requisites and incentives, tasks, training requirements and costs, and "crosswalks" to civilian occupations and educational programs. It documents the database and illustrates the data to describe Army occupational structure and training. It also discusses potential uses of the data for supporting analyses of training and personnel structure alternatives.
Design of Field-Based Crosstraining Programs and Implications for Readiness: Survey Instrument and Database Documentation - 1992
R. M. Mazel
This Note documents the survey instruments and data sources used to support the analyses described in RAND report R-4242-A, Design of Field-Based Crosstraining Programs and Implications for Readiness. This study used two forms of data: (1) data collected via specially designed survey instruments; and (2) existing maintenance data and personnel records. Supervisors were queried about their job responsibilities, perceptions of train-up requirements, and perceptions of which military occupational specialties (MOS) might be combined in future training. This study also incorporated data from several existing databases: the Enlisted Master File (EMF), the official Department of the Army information base for enlisted personnel; the Army's Aviation Unscheduled Maintenance Sample Data Collection (UMSDC) system, and the Standard Army Maintenance System's (SAMS) Work Order Logistics File (WOLF). All these databases were used to understand the overall workload and job responsibilities of chosen maintenance units.
Exploratory Modeling and the Use of Simulation for Policy Analysis - 1992
S. C. Bankes
This Note describes how "exploratory modeling" provides a rationale for how computer models can be fruitfully employed in support of policy studies. The goal of exploratory modeling is to construct a compelling argument illuminating the choices among policy options. Three innovations in the methodology of model construction can help exploit exploratory modeling's potential: (1) model design driven by the question being asked rather than by details of the system being studied; (2) use of multiple models rather than a single "monolithic" model; and (3) model development by a process of "selective resolution." The Note also suggests improvements to computer technology that taken together would provide support for interactive and adaptive modeling; assistance in managing the complexity of numerous models, cases, and relationships between them; and a means for portraying the results of exploratory modeling. Exploratory modeling can motivate better use of computers in support of policy analysis, provide for a better allocation of resources in dealing with the real problems, and afford some protection against fooling ourselves.
Extracting Tactical Data from Operation Orders - 1992
J. R. Kipps, J. Marti
This Note describes an approach to automating the extraction of operation orders (OPORDs) and describes an application of the approach to the task of generating the OPORD translation system, which extracts task organization data from input OPORDs. This approach is one of the tools being developed to assist Division Ammunition Officers (DAOs) in anticipating ammunition consumption before battle, a capability that is a vital component of logistics operations in the Army's emerging AirLand Operations doctrine. Described here is a machine-translation approach that takes advantage of the prescribed five-paragraph format of OPORDs to identify and isolate pertinent information. This approach uses concise and clear rules to automatically generate programs that take as input textual OPORDs such as those transmitted through the Maneuver Control System (MCS), extract the desired data, and send them to other computer systems. The techniques described here are generally applicable to extracting and checking data from a wide range of highly structured but not "machine-readable" documents.
Finding a New Approach to Measure the Operational Value of Intelligence for Military Operations: Annotated Briefing - 1992
E. M. Cesar, P. D. Allen, R. Eden
This Note documents the final executive-level briefing for a project whose goal was to develop and apply innovative analytic tools for quantifying the operational value of intelligence, electronic warfare/target acquisition (IEW/TA). The Note discusses the three analytic tools produced by the project: a methodology for relating commanders' requirements to collection results and two models that employ the methodology. The "static" model provides an aggregate assessment of the capability of specified systems and system packages to meet commanders' information needs in specified scenarios. The "dynamic" model is more detailed and broader in scope, assessing the impact of intelligence collection on commanders' decisionmaking over the course of an operation from initial planning to its conclusion. All three tools depend fundamentally on subjective-judgment data, but these data are systematically developed using experts in operations planning, intelligence collection and production, and analysis. The Note concludes with a discussion of the status of the three tools developed during the project and potential future directions for their use.
Five Models for European Security: Implications for the United States - 1992
N. C. Gantz, J. B. Steinberg
This Note assesses five alternative security models that could emerge in the next 5-10 years in terms of how well they meet the U.S. objective of transnational stability in Europe. The Note finds that of the five models proposed, the overlapping security institutions model does best, because it preserves a political and military role for the United States, creates alternative links for U.S. involvement in Europe beyond NATO, demonstrates U.S. willingness to adapt to a stronger European role in security arrangements, and maintains flexibility to move to a number of different security models. The Note recommends that the United States develop a credible rationale for maintaining an integrated military command like NATO, encourage the expansion of the Western European Union's role as a bridge between NATO and the European Community, support the process of European economic and political integration, and encourage the use of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe as a pan-European forum for addressing the security concerns of the newly emerging democracies in the East.
Getting U.S. Military Power to the Desert: An Annotated Briefing - 1992
D. Kassing
This Note describes the main dimensions of U.S. deployments to the Gulf area and reviews the performance of the deployment systems. The Note highlights six deployment and execution issues: (1) for the first month of the Phase I deployments, total transportation requirements were hard to pin down, with much of the uncertainty traceable to varying estimates of Army noncombat unit requirements; (2) initial air deployments were hampered by problems of coordination between users and the Military Airlift Command; (3) during Phase II, unit integrity was not preserved in sealift operations; (4) during Phase II, the coordination of passenger and equipment deliveries was abandoned to get personnel into the area before the January 15th deadline; (5) resupply cargos in air channels came to exceed capacity; and (6) many prewar planning factors proved optimistic. To prepare for future contingencies that may require faster deployments through seaports and airports that are under attack, the Department of Defense needs to consider such issues as how to provide more responsive planning and how to improve the coordination of deployment operations.
Management Adaptations in Jet Engine Repair at a Naval Aviation Depot in Support of Operation Desert Shield/Storm - 1992
L. A. Galway
This Note investigates management adaptations taken to speed up the repair of jet engines during Operation Desert Shield/Storm. Most data were gathered from the engine repair shop at the Naval Aviation Depot in San Diego, CA. Management adaptations fell into two general categories: item oriented and process oriented. The former dealt with specific items in the engine repair process, e.g., compressor blades, and the latter addressed the engine repair process. We discovered that material support was a major problem, to include sole suppliers of critical items, failure to stock common commercially available items, poor parts visibility, and slow distribution. The absence of a bill of materials for each engine type inhibited planning. Failure to return inoperative engines and an inability to know what was in the retrograde system point to likely problems for future operations. Finally, both horizontal and vertical communications were particularly helpful in dealing with surge-related problems.
Materiel Problems at a Naval Aviation Depot: A Case Study of the TF-30 Engine - 1992
L. A. Galway
This Note investigates shortages of repair parts. It uses the TF-30 jet engine as a case study and analyzes the parts shortage using three different measures: delivery time, demand supply profiles, and effect on engine repair. After analyzing data from the Naval Industrial Material Management System (NIMMS) and from three inventory control points, the study draws three major conclusions. First, engine days of delay provides a good indication of which parts cause the most trouble. Second, although a few parts cause the most problems (56 out of 2000), the remainder of the problems result from a heterogeneous set of parts. Finally, most of the supply problem seems to be in getting parts from the DoD supply system to the depot. Recommendations address the need to reduce delays in moving parts to the depot from the DoD system, improve procurement at the inventory control point, rectify problems with databases, and integrate information at the wholesale level.
Mortar Utilization at the Army's Combat Training Centers - 1992
S. J. Kirin, M. Goldsmith
Data from take-home packages and field observations suggested that light, medium, and heavy mortar weapons were underutilized or ineffective at three Combat Training Centers (CTCs)--the National Training Center (NTC), Joint Readiness Training Center (JRTC), and Combat Maneuver Training Center (CMTC). Observer/controller data confirmed that mortars caused little damage and mortar ammunition expenditure fell far below that expected and provided for in ammunition stockage. Mortars are underutilized at the CTCs because of perceived limited effects of suppression and, for heavy mortar training, limited dismounted infantry activity observed at NTC and CMTC. In addition to revising field manuals to provide better doctrinal guidance on use of mortars, CTC and home station training need to emphasize the task force commander's responsibility to identify specific mortar missions, the task force fire support officer's responsibility to design the linkage that allows mortars to execute the missions, and the importance of conducting fire support rehearsals with mortar platoon participation. Mortars should be more closely integrated with the lower level maneuver organizations, not with field artillery organizations. Whether to add forward observers to mortar platoons merits further investigation.
New Issues and Tools for Future Military Analysis: A Workshop Summary - 1992
R. J. Hillestad, R. Huber, M. G. Weiner
This Note reports on a workshop held at RAND in May 1991 to discuss the new concerns analysts must face following the changes that have taken place in Central and Eastern Europe and Southwest Asia since 1989. The workshop produced a number of specific recommendations to the military analysis community and its sponsors: 1) continue to discuss issues of military analysis in open forums; 2) develop a quick reaction analysis approach with supporting tools; 3) reinstitute basic principles of systems analysis (attention to uncertainty, multiple scenario analysis, parametric analysis, comparative analysis, etc.), which may have atrophied because of the relatively stable planning scenario of the Cold War era; 4) promote basic research on complex phenomena, such as qualitative factors (training, morale, leadership), behavior of C3I systems, and new types of conflict; 5) promote multiorganization analysis of complex issues as well as multiple analyses of the same issues; and 6) promote education of analysts in the synthesis and solution of defense problems and education of decisionmakers in the use and limitations of analysis.
North Korea in the 1990s: Implications for the Future of the U.S.-South Korea Security Alliance - 1992
K. Oh
This Note assesses the implications of change for North Korea, the U.S.-South Korea security alliance, and the stability of Northeast Asia. The Note finds that in dealing with its economic plight, political weakness, and diplomatic isolation, the North Korean regime faces a dilemma: remain in power (at least in the short term) by deflecting or suppressing domestic and international challenges, or engage in reform that could threaten the Kims' hold on power. Although the regime has leaned toward the former, there are signs North Korea is looking abroad for help, which argues for the United States continuing to engage North Korea in dialogue on issues of interest to both governments. The U.S.-South Korea relationship will change in the years ahead, with the United States needing to see and treat South Korea as a more equal partner and needing to continue to reduce its military forces in the South both to reflect a diminishing North Korean threat and to respect South Korean nationalistic sentiments.
Observations of the Caravan Guard 89 Exercise - 1992
P. D. Allen, T. Lippiatt, L. Pleger, T. Polsley,
Observations on the Centurion Shield 90 Exercise - 1992
P. D. Allen, J. P. Kahan, T. F. Lippiatt, T. Polsley, D. R. Worley
Given the end of the Cold War, the necessity of continued military exercises in Central Europe has been questioned. Large-scale field exercises are economically and politically costly, causing, among other things, damage to civilian crops and property as units maneuver over private and public property during training. This Note presents recommendations on issues emerging from observations of Centurion Shield 90, a field training exercise conducted January 15-26, 1990, combining live and simulated units in a single exercise. The authors focus is on the simulation interfaces, including simulations linked with each other and with units on the ground. The most important issues involve exercise design, exercise manning, scenario-related issues, threat representation, and simulation calibration. Preliminary results indicate that using simulations probably improves the quality of training in several functional areas, but this improvement is difficult to measure. There are reduced operational and maneuver damage costs, but increased costs of simulation support.
Performance-Oriented Logistics Assessment (POLA): Relating Logistics Functional Capacities to Resources and Costs - 1992
J. H. Bigelow, T. J. Martin, R. L. Petruschell
This Note describes models and procedures other than the Logistics Decision Model (LDM) that are part of POLA methodology--models and procedures used to estimate Combat Service Support (CSS) unit capacities from their equipment inventories, to estimate the costs of increasing those capacities by adding or replacing equipment, and to construct cases for analysis. To estimate the costs of logistics improvements to CSS units, a simple cost model is used that estimates nonrecurring and annual recurring costs of acquiring, maintaining, and operating an active Army unit (or collection of units) in peacetime. The model is then applied to a unit before it receives a logistics improvement and afterwards, with the cost of the improvement being the difference between "before" and "after" cost estimates. Defining cases for analysis requires first identifying CSS units to be considered, then describing each unit identified, both as it appears initially and as it may appear once it receives a logistics improvement, and finally combining unit descriptions into overall analysis cases. (See also R-3814, R-3823, N-3393.)
Performance-Oriented Logistics Assessment (POLA): Preparing the Logistics Decision Model for Use in Analyses - 1992
J. H. Bigelow, T. J. Martin, R. L. Petruschell
This Note explains how to prepare the Logistics Decision Model (LDM) for use in subsequent analyses. The study discusses two main parts of this task: calibrating the representation of combat and preparing a representation of the theater support system. Calibration involves adjusting various LDM inputs so the model behaves "correctly" in a specified reference (or calibration) case. To date, LDM is calibrated to the Concept Evaluation Model (CEM) and to its replacement, the Force Evaluation Model (FORCEM). The calibration process draws from CEM and FORCEM data files such inputs as time-phased schedules for Blue and Red force and resources to enter the theater, comparing LDM simulation results with CEM and FORCEM outputs and then judiciously adjusting LDM inputs until they match CEM and FORCEM outputs. In building the theater support structure, LDM relies on an activity matrix--representing a resource that can be produced, consumed, or otherwise transformed by one or more activities--and a resource matrix--calculating the quantity of each resource available during each time period of an LDM simulation. (See also R-3814, R-3823, N-3354.)
Planning for the Future U.S. Army in Europe - 1992
R. D. Howe, E. Kleckley
This Note describes an approach to structuring the United States Army Europe (USAREUR) in the middle to late 1990s as a function of the mission of that command. The study finds that as long as the Army retains forces in Europe, it will serve as the ground arm of the United States European Command (USEUCOM), as the visible symbol of U.S. involvement in, and commitment to, European security and stability, and as the counter to the potential power of the former Soviet Union (or unified successor). Meeting these functions will require a future USAREUR that is visible, capable, flexible, and expandable. Specifically, USAREUR must have a more balanced and flexible force structure than in the past, with likely missions requiring that a larger fraction of USAREUR have enhanced strategic (theater) mobility. Most important, USAREUR requires a clear and complete mission to determine the force levels it will need.
Soldiers' Families: Tracking Their Well-Being During Peacetime and War - 1992
J. Hawes-Dawson, P. A. Morrison,
This Note presents a proposal for how to query a representative sample of Army families and obtain timely information on topics that change quickly. Accommodating the Army's growing need for timely information (as exemplified by Operations Desert Shield and Storm) requires a flexible survey plan that can be tailored to a broad spectrum of unforeseeable circumstances in peacetime and wartime contingencies. The study's proposed plan relies on an ongoing panel of families who are recontacted periodically by telephone (to confirm location) and are available for repeated computer-assisted telephone interviewing. The sample is designed so data gathered can be generalized to all Army families and achieves timeliness by narrowing at will the elapsed time from when the policymaker poses a question to the point when the survey delivers a generalizable answer. The plan's feasibility is enhanced because lines of communication are maintained (thus enabling "minisurveys"), workload can be varied to meet needs according to urgency, and postwar surveys can be mounted swiftly given the existing and continuously recontacted sample.
Turkey: Toward the Twenty-First Century - 1992
P. B. Henze
This Note discusses the most important trends in Turkey's political, economic, and social development, focusing on the last decade's progress and on future prospects. The study finds that Turkey will build on its record of stability and economic accomplishment during the 1980s to maintain an effective political and social system and to make further economic progress during the 1990s. Turkey will balance orientations toward Europe, the Middle East, and new republics of the Soviet Union (which are mostly Muslim and Turkic) during the 1990s while continuing to look toward the United States as its principal security partner within NATO. Prospects for continued economic progress are good, though persistent inflation, growing budget deficits, and the need for privatization of state economic enterprises require serious action. Finally, while Turkey will likely be very politically and socially cohesive and the standing of the military will remain high, military influence on government will wane.
Upgrading an Office Automation Environment: The Army's DCSPER Automation Project Final Report - 1992
H. J. Shukiar, R. Gates, R. J. Kaplan
In November 1990, the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Personnel (ODCSPER), U.S. Army, asked RAND to evaluate its current computing environment and recommend a course of action to improve it. RAND developed a questionnaire for ODCSPER staff members that focused on five broad categories: user characteristics; user sophistication; desktop- and nearby-equipment usage; user communications; and problems, limitations, and desired capabilities. This Note summarizes the survey results and suggests several evolutionary enhancements to ODCSPER's computing environment. The enhancements are designed to address concerns identified in the survey and provide ODCSPER with a flexible computing architecture that permits ready adaptation to changing technologies. As part of the incremental approach to improving ODCSPER office automation, the authors recommend three conceptual steps that, taken together, would foster a well integrated cooperative processing environment: (1) integrate the ODCSPER computing environment via a local-area network, providing direct peer-to-peer connectivity among computer users; (2) add centralized file managers/servers to the network, within which to store important documents in preparation, other important products, and databases down-loaded from the mainframes; and (3) add centralized computer servers to the network, coupled with migration of the electronic mail function from the mainframe to the servers.
U.S. Army Communications Using Commercial Satellites - 1992
D. Castleman, S. M. S. Everingham, J. J. Milanese, E. D. Harris, E. Bedrosian
This Note documents research evaluating the use of commercial communications satellites (COMSATS) to augment the U.S. military satellite communications (MILSATCOM) system. The study finds that COMSATS can offer attractive advantages, including available capacity, global coverage, interoperability, flexibility, and no user-borne development risk. Several commercial systems now provide (or will soon provide) wideband and multiuser services, with the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization (INTELSAT) and the International Maritime Satellite Organization (INMARSAT) both offering global coverage and available capacity. A combination of such systems could provide uninterrupted communications between the Commander in Chief in the continental United States and others in a global power projection operation, particularly during the early deployment phase. Such a capability would complement other Army systems used for local tactical communications. In terms of regulatory constraints on using such systems for military purposes, recent interpretations of the charters defining their use reveal that any resistance on the part of INTELSAT or INMARSAT in serving the military customer has faded.
Apogee, Perigee, and Recovery: Chronology of Army Exploitation of Space - 1991
E. Mitchell
Since the mid-1980s, a debate has gone on within the Department of Defense (DOD) on whether it is appropriate for the Army to be increasingly involved in space and, if so, how the Army should exploit space. This Note (1) describes the evolution of the Army's exploitation of space in response to an emerging post-World War II Soviet threat while complying with national policy and organizational directives; (2) informs the current Army, DOD, students, and others of the full spectrum of the Army's past and current exploitation of space; and (3) provides a chronology of policy decisions and events, from 1907 through mid-1989, which have shaped the Army's exploitation in the technological areas of ballistic missiles, satellites, early-warning radars, ground stations, anti-satellite defenses, anti-ballistic missile defenses, theater missile defenses, and tactical missiles.
Differences over Economics in the Soviet Leadership, 1988-1990 - 1991
A. Aslund
This Note discusses the most important differences among key Soviet leaders between the summer of 1988 and December 1990 on four central issues: agricultural policy, the Soviet financial crisis, pricing policy, and economic reform. In addition to examining Gorbachev's views, the Note also considers the views of the main actors dealing with economic concerns--Central Committee Secretary Yegor Ligachev, Prime Minister Nikolai Ryzhkov, Gosplan Chairman Yurii Maslyukov, Central Committee Secretary Nikolai Slyunkov, and Deputy Prime Minister Leonid Abalkin. The study of the views of these main actors on the four economic issues revealed that the Soviet leaders were so divided on the issues that they were virtually splintered. The communist leadership as a whole had fallen behind the development of public opinion, thus rendering itself increasingly irrelevant to Soviet society. The outstanding feature of the period 1988-1990 seems to be that it was the time when Soviet communist leaders failed to act and therefore lost the power to affect economic trends.
Historical Roots of Contemporary Debates on Soviet Military Doctrine and Defense - 1991
S. W. Stoecker
This Note examines the themes of, and historical context for, the writings of Soviet strategists of the 1920s, such as Alexander Svechin and Leon Trotsky, who emphasized the importance of defensive operations. It discusses early Soviet debates about the "operational-political" and "operational-strategic" aspects of doctrine, wars of destruction vs. wars of attrition, and strategic offense vs. strategic defense, as well as related arguments about the organization and missions of infantry and the use of fortifications. Finally, it suggests some parallels between the strategic circumstances facing Soviet military theorists in the 1920s and those confronting planners today.
Methodological Considerations in Using Simulation to Assess the Combat Value of Intelligence and Electronic Warfare - 1991
S. C. Bankes
The relative value of systems for intelligence and electronic warfare/target acquisition (IEW/TA) may be determined in a variety of ways, including the comparison of technical characteristics, ability to provide estimations of commanders' information needs, or subjective judgment by experts. The OPVIEW (operational value of intelligence and electronic warfare) project aims to develop means for evaluating IEW/TA systems in terms of their contribution to combat outcomes. Such an evaluation would permit comparisons between diverse systems and force components and evaluation of the combined value of groups of systems. Simulation could be a powerful analytic tool for determining the contribution to combat outcomes of IEW/TA systems, since it allows us to represent our understanding of the complex effects and relationships that characterize warfare and to observe the implications of our beliefs for different cases under varied assumptions. Unfortunately, existing combat simulations do not adequately represent intelligence and electronic warfare. There are fundamental technical reasons for this, and there are technical challenges that must be addressed to support the analysis of the combat value of IEW/TA with simulation models. This Note describes these challenges and considers ways to meet them.
The Military's Entry into Air Interdiction of Drug Trafficking from South America - 1991
J. L. Ahart, G. J. Stiles
This Note examines the military's participation in the air interdiction of international drug traffic. On the larger question of the effectiveness of drug interdiction efforts, the research indicates that interdiction efforts are having an impact on the drug market by diverting drug smugglers from the easier routes. The research also indicates that although the interfaces between the agencies involved in the civilian interdiction forces are highly complicated and not clearly defined, the effort is well established, experienced, and (apparently) working. Finally, the research indicates that the military's contributions to the air interdiction of drug traffic are significant, are providing positive benefits to the overall effort, and are growing in importance. Nonetheless, inserting the military forces into the established domain of civilian law enforcement agencies has produced problems, such as the inherent tension between the military philosophy of action and the civilian need for building evidence and the precise observance of procedures; civilian/military equipment mismatches; turf wars; and realization that increasing civilian/military integration could undercut the effort if the military has to pull out to deal with a national defense need.
RJARS: RAND's Version of the Jamming Aircraft and Radar Simulation - 1991
W. Sollfrey
This Note describes an updated version of RJARS (RAND's version of the Jamming Aircraft and Radar Simulation). The present RJARS is a many-on-many computer simulation in the C language involving aircraft, radars, jamming systems, offensive and defensive missiles, infrared and optical systems, and a command-control-communications system for the defense. It can operate in conjunction with the RAND programs JANUS and CAGIS. RJARS treats sortie operations and evaluates jamming effectiveness and mission attrition at a level of detail that includes reasonable refinements of equipment operation without excessive calculational complexity. This Note describes RJARS and its sequence of operations, shows how to prepare input files and operate RJARS, gives programming details, and provides a glossary of the approximately 1,100 variables used in RJARS.
Sizing Relationships for Ballistic Missile Defense Constellations of Kinetic Energy Weapons - 1991
S. M. S. Everingham
This Note examines the effects of satellite constellation sizing, orbit inclination, orbit altitude, and kill vehicle velocity-added capability on the boost and post-boost phase ballistic missile defense capability of a space-based interceptor system. In particular, it compares the geometric coverage and missile negation potentials of a large number of interceptor deployment options, options that range from concentrated deployments of many interceptors on relatively few satellite platforms to a dispersed deployment of many platforms, each carrying a single interceptor, which characterizes the "brilliant pebbles" concept.
When the Weak Attack the Strong: Failures of Deterrence - 1991
B. Wolf
One potential justification for a thin area missile defense is the increasing proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction. However, it has been argued that states possessing such weapons would not attack much stronger states such as the United States and the Soviet Union. This Note examines historical instances of attacks by states against much stronger counterparts. A taxonomy of such deterrence failures is formulated and illustrated with examples. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of various types of deterrence failure to potential attacks by states possessing weapons of mass destruction against stronger states.
The 2 + 2 + 4 Recruiting Experiment: Design and Initial Results - 1990
R. J. Buddin, J. M. Polich
This Note describes the design and first six months of experience for a national experiment on a proposed new recruiting program for the U.S. Army. The program, called the "2 + 2 + 4" recruiting option, is one of the tools the Army believes could help sustain its ability to attract high-quality young people during difficult recruiting periods in the future. The authors present RAND's design for the test as a controlled experiment, similar to earlier enlistment incentive tests, and present preliminary tabulations of results during the first six months of the test. The test established a framework for systematic assessment of the 2 + 2 + 4 program and set up a precise mechanism for possible future tests of other enlistment options through individually randomized assignment in the REQUEST system. The test showed that a substantial number of recruits are willing to commit for two years in the Selected Reserve to obtain an Army College Fund benefit. It also showed that offering the 2 + 2 + 4 option has led relatively few recruits to choose a short term of service in place of a longer term or to move from a combat to a noncombat skill. It is too soon to determine whether the program led to a significant increase in the total number of high-quality recruits entering the Army.
Applying the National Training Center Experience: Artillery Targeting Accuracy - 1990
M. Goldsmith, J. S. Hodges, M. L. Burn
This Note describes a study that examined the accuracy of simulated artillery fires during force-on-force engagements at the National Training Center (NTC). The authors found that only about one-third of artillery missions were either effective or suppressive. Available data show that artillery observers using only map, compass, and binoculars cannot consistently achieve accurate first-round fire-for-effect. NTC data show that initial fire plans are likewise insufficiently accurate. The authors make recommendations for doctrinal and procedural improvements and for added training equipment.
The Impact of Missile Proliferation on U.S. Power Projection Capabilities - 1990
D. S. Rubenson, A. Slomovic
The growth in the numbers and capabilities of ballistic missiles outside Central Europe implies that non-nuclear ballistic missile threats, especially in combination with the growing capacity to produce chemical weapons, may pose an increasing threat to fixed U.S. overseas facilities and U.S. forces on rapid deployment missions. This Note addresses the proliferation of ballistic missiles with conventional warheads, including chemical warheads. Examining current ballistic missile arsenals reveals that they consist largely of inaccurate, short-range missiles, located mostly in North Africa and the Middle East. However, a geographically diverse set of countries are developing new missiles with improved ranges and capabilities, and this Note discusses the damage that can be inflicted by ballistic missiles armed with conventional munitions. Finally, the Note considers the chemical threat, demonstrating a correlation between countries that own ballistic missiles and countries seeking to develop a chemical weapons capability. The analysis shows that using even today's ballistic missile systems with chemical weapons could represent a major military threat for which the United States is relatively unprepared. Furthermore, the approaches for counteracting the chemical threat that are effective in Central Europe must be reevaluated and adjusted for the environment faced by U.S. forces in other areas of the world.
LHX Mission Equipment Package Tradeoffs - 1990
M. B. Schaffer, H. Ory
This Note addresses technologies and issues associated with the mission equipment package (MEP) of the LHX (Light Helicopter Experimental). The study considers communications, navigation, target acquisition, and air survivability equipment, as well as cockpit displays in terms of their importance to the LHX missions, and their prospects of meeting performance requirements. The Note also compares weight allocations with those for similar equipment in Apache. Based on an extensive information base that includes the Army's cost and operational effectiveness analyses reports, briefings and reports generated during the LHX study, and first-order analyses performed to clarify particular issues, the authors conclude that the LHX Program Management Office generic selection of MEP systems, and the functions they represent, are well matched to the extensive set of missions for which LHX is intended. With the exception of the doppler velocity sensor, each system is necessary for some aspect of mission accomplishment, so that deletion of any to save weight and cost would result in loss of mission capability.
Non-Preemptive Time Warp Scheduling Algorithms - 1990
C. D. Burdorf, J. Marti
The Time Warp multiprocessing scheme promises speed-up for object-oriented discrete-event simulation. The Concurrent Processing for Advanced Simulation project has constructed a LISP-based Time Warp system for implementing simulations with many large, complex objects. Since object events are not preempted, the authors are scheduling which objects have events process rather than CPU time per object. They developed approaches to scheduling, ranging from a simple round-robin mechanism to complex ones involving queue length. The authors developed ten different scheduling algorithms which they named Worst Case, Conventional Round Robin, Lowest Local Virtual Time (LVT) First, Priority LVT, Largest Queue Priority, Bradford/Fitch, Anti-Penalty, Queue Anti-Penalty, Queue Cycle, and Positive Infinity. Results show that LVT, anti-messages, rollbacks, returned messages, and anti-reminders are good parameters for scheduling of system resources. Input queue size is also an important factor, but when taken with or without LVT, it does not produce results as good as using LVT alone. The round-robin scheduler was one of the worst performers. The poor performance of the simple round-robin scheduler indicates the advantages of using state information to determine the scheduling order in the Time Warp system. Benchmarks of the schedulers showed that the Anti-Penalty scheduler performed better than the others. The Anti-Penalty algorithm is based on a composite measure of simulation advance rate, flow control, and the appearance of specific message types. The benchmark simulation executed on a five-processor Time Warp system.
Patterns in American Intellectual Frontiers - 1990
C. H. Builder
This Note examines the notion that a pattern exists in the ideas that have captured and dominated American society. Specifically, over the past 200 years, four such ideas have risen and been widely perceived as the most exciting way to shape the American future, persisting for about 50 years and then giving way to the next idea. Based on that pattern, five earlier ideas can be recognized, going back to the sixteenth century. Having defined a pattern of nine ideas extending over nearly half a millenium, the author suggests three more ideas that might fulfill the pattern for the next hundred years. Looking backward and then forward based on ideas rather than events provides a different kind of projection into the future. Specifically, the events of the past take on a different shading in the context of the ebb and flow of ideas; moreover, the trends may now appear to be in decline or ascendancy. Although understanding the intellectual patterns of the past may not tell us the answer to what is next, it does provide a clearer sense of the domains where new developments should be expected.
Restructuring and the Polarization of Soviet Politics - 1990
J. R. Azrael
This Note examines the economic and political changes that have taken place in the Soviet Union since Mikhail Gorbachev's accession to power, and assesses the longer-term implications of those changes. Following an evaluation of Gorbachev's "first-term" performance as a crisis manager, the Note examines the current situation and concludes with speculation on future prospects. The study concludes that (1) Gorbachev has presided over, and contributed to, a deepening systemic crisis; (2) militant opposition to Gorbachev has been building on both the right and left; (3) while Gorbachev may be able to use his new presidential powers to keep things under control, the Soviet Union may be on the verge of a civil war; and (4) the existence of a clear and present danger of a violent implosion in the Soviet Union has significant implications for U.S. policy.
Suggested Modifications to Optical Sensor Algorithms in JANUS - 1990
H. H. Bailey, L. G. Mundie, H. Ory
Optical sensor algorithms in the JANUS(T) ground combat simulation do not include a repeated detection criterion for target acquisition and weapon firing, nor do they provide for the effects of false detections. As a result, targets detected with very low probability, such as those at ranges near the performance limit of the sensor, will often give rise to acquisition and weapon-firing decisions when rare single detections result from coverage by many sensors and time cycles. This Note reviews the detection algorithms for optical sensors implemented in JANUS(T), identifies some approximations that can lead to overoptimistic estimates of target acquisition probabilities when the calculated detection probability is small, and suggests an acquisition criterion that alleviates the problem.
TOW Missile System Utilization at the National Training Center - 1990
M. Goldsmith
This Note reports on one phase of an ongoing project, the goal of which is to apply the experience and information gained at the National Training Center (NTC) at Fort Irwin, California, to problems beyond the NTC's mission of training. The problem examined here is the use of the tube-launched, optically tracked, wire-guided (TOW) missile system in Echo company of the mechanized infantry battalion task forces at the NTC. The study team examined the relative effectiveness of the TOW missile and tank main guns and compared the result with the experience of the opposing force (OPFOR) antitank guided-missile (ATGM) unit. Differences are clear, and the team analyzed both OPFOR and U.S. Army tactics for the use of ATGM and the characteristics of the equipment to explain the differences. To exploit the TOW weapon systems in the attack, AirLand Battle doctrine requires speed and agility of the carrier that matches that of the other maneuver elements. As the improved TOW vehicle (ITV) carrier cannot meet this requirement, the author suggests that the U.S. Army consider replacing its ITV carriers with M3 Bradley vehicles to provide greater speed and maneuverability to the antitank company. At the same time, doctrine must be rewritten so these characteristics can be exploited and aligned with AirLand Battle.
U.S. Grand Strategy for the 1990s and Beyond - 1990
T. J. Hirschfeld
The profound global changes foreshadowed by the events of 1989 suggest the need for new strategies and different forces for the United States. This Note shows how the changed global environment could permit the evolution of different kinds of U.S. forces to support four alternative future U.S. strategies suitable for different situations: (1) retain the full range of mission capabilities as the last remaining global power, (2) rely mainly on collective security by preparing to engage in combat operations only in cooperation with others, (3) confine U.S. military cooperation with others primarily to logistic and technical support, and (4) maintain a mobilization base against the worst contingencies. The author concludes that all postulated strategies assume the U.S. need for a healthy mobilization base, some requirement for rescue missions, and a permanent capability to inflict punishment at a distance. Strategic nuclear weapons remain necessary under all strategies, as does the need to continue honoring those alliance commitments that remain. Finally, these strategies imply different investment priorities.
Verifying Conventional Stability in Europe: An Overview - 1990
T. J. Hirschfeld
Verifying the obligations in the prospective Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty will be far harder and more expensive than verifying those in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, or in other previous arms control agreements. This Note presents a qualitative overview of conventional arms control verification issues, including (1) monitoring force levels calibrated in major items of equipment and personnel, in a large production area that makes concealment possible; (2) watching force withdrawals, restructuring, or disbandments involving removal, reexport, or destruction of thousands of heavy equipment items; (3) monitoring the post-agreement stasis of the largest and most complex force concentration in peacetime history; and (4) meshing these observations with the concurrent need to monitor unilateral Warsaw Pact force reductions and force changes on a massive scale.
Assessment of Communications Operator Proficiency: Design Issues - 1989
J. D. Winkler, J. C. Fernandez, J. M. Polich
The U.S. Army Signal Corps provides the means for establishing essential communications between units on the battlefield. Within the various Signal Military Occupational Specialties (MOSs), a key role is played by MOS 31M, which is responsible for operating the tactical communications equipment used in units. This Note describes a design for research to assess the ability of such Signal Corps communications operators to perform their principal duties: (1) installing and operating communications equipment needed for a division or corps to communicate, (2) isolating "bugs" and identifying corrective steps in troubleshooting communications systems, and (3) installing antennas effectively and safely. The study uses the Reactive Electronic Equipment Simulator (REES), a high-fidelity computer-controlled simulation facility consisting of four signal nodes and 28 training positions. The REES tabulates all of the actions taken by each operator on each piece of equipment and records these data for later analysis of individual and team performance.
Assessment of PATRIOT Air Defense System Operator Proficiency: Design Issues - 1989
B. R. Orvis, M. T. Childress, J. M. Polich
The PATRIOT (Phased Array Tracking to Intercept of Target) missile system, the most modern and automated of the Army's Air Defense Artillery systems, protects U.S. and NATO assets from the high- to medium-altitude enemy air threat. This Note describes a research design to assess the performance of PATRIOT enlisted operators and to link that performance to the outcomes of simulated air battles. The research will examine the efficiency and effectiveness of the tactical control assistant and the tactical director assistant in (1) protecting valuable assets, engaging enemy aircraft, and assisting in the protection of friendly aircraft as is required for success during air battles; and (2) directing fire units to engage specific aircraft in order to protect assets and destroy enemy aircraft.
Automatic and Aided Target Recognition for LHX - 1989
H. H. Bailey, H. Ory, M. B. Schaffer
Automatic or aided target recognition (ATR) involves an imaging sensor (preferably more than one) plus a rather large amount of data processing. Such systems, by shortening the exposure times of aircraft during targeting, can be very helpful and may be essential to the survivability of the LHX (Light Helicopter Experimental). These systems are just now evolving to a useful level of capability. It is anticipated that these levels will approach 0.9 detection probability, 0.8 recognition probability, and 0.02 false alarms per square degree under favorable conditions. Tests to date have been promising, but they have involved only a limited variety of backgrounds and environments and have not included adequate representation of countermeasures. These conditions must be included in the continuing evolution and tests of ATR, but it appears probable that useful goals will be accomplished in time for the LHX program.
Clients and Commitments: Soviet-Vietnamese Relations, 1978-1988 - 1989
S. W. Stoecker
This Note examines the evolution of the Soviet-Vietnamese relationship over the past decade in three contexts: (1) Soviet behavior in supporting the Vietnamese troops during the invasion of Cambodia in late 1978 and in defending them during the Chinese incursion of Vietnam in early 1979, (2) the level of Soviet economic and military aid, and (3) the impact of General Secretary Gorbachev's "new thinking" on Soviet-Vietnamese relations. The record shows a Soviet disinclination to take risks in this region of the world, chiefly because of the proximity to China, even in the late 1970s during the height of Brezhnev's interventionism. Under Gorbachev, not only does interventionism appear remote, but tangible results in reducing tensions in Southeast Asia already have been achieved. Specifically, by September of 1989, thousands of Vietnamese troops left Cambodia, thus fulfilling the third "precondition" set by China on the path to improved Sino-Soviet relations.
Corps and Division Command Staff Turnover in the 1980s - 1989
J. P. Kahan
This Note presents the results of a survey of all active component U.S. Army corps and division headquarters requesting the names and times of service of their commanders, deputy commanders, chiefs of staff, and assistant chiefs of staff during the 1980s. It examines command staff turnover with respect to two contrasting models of team composition. The first model, a "unit team" one, assumes that a team is constructed from scratch and stays together over a period of time. The second model, a "steady state" one, assumes that the staff is a continuous social entity that people enter and leave at regular intervals. Analysis of turbulence data showed that the steady-state model is far more descriptive of current corps and division staffs than the unit composition model. The findings suggest that (1) team-building training should emphasize the rapid socialization of new staff members as a constant task for a unit, and (2) exercises should be designed to test and reinforce the mutual understanding among staff members as well as the performance of standard operating procedures. The Army may wish to consider whether it should implement a division and corps command staff assignment procedure that would result in more stable, cohesive teams.
LHX Mission Analysis Using MOSF SUN Terrain Procedures: An Overview of System Logic - 1989
A. L. Zobrist, L. J. Marcelino
The mission analysis element of the RAND LHX (Light Helicopter Experimental) study is concerned with comparative analysis of helicopter/tilt rotor configurations in a mission context. Complex mission contexts are simulated with the standard JANUS system. This Note describes a RAND-developed system that supports and enhances the JANUS results by applying higher data resolution and greater engineering detail to selected parts of the JANUS cases.
A Multiprocessor Execution Profiler - 1989
C. D. Burdorf, J. P. Fitch, J. Marti, J. A. Padget
Existing profiling tools generally have crude interfaces, are clumsy to use, and monitor only accumulated CPU (central processing unit) time and function calls. After examining these programs, the authors concluded that they are insufficient aids for profiling a large-scale multiprocessing system even if they are adequate for manual analysis of a single processor system. The authors developed a tool that collects the following information: where CPU time is expended, quality and quantity of data passed between functions, how much global data is referenced and modified, and how these characteristics differ among processors on the network. To simplify data inspection, the profiler has a mouse-driven graphical interface. The authors used the system on a number of single- and multiprocessor Lisp programs. The profiler proved its usefulness in performance improvement and problem identification. This Note, reprinted from Proceedings of the Twenty-Second Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Science Kailua-Kona, Hawaii, January 3-6, 1989, describes the design of the profiler and gives examples of its utilization.
NATO Conventional Defense: Force Augmentation with European Reservists - 1989
R. F. Phillips
NATO could enhance a capability for successful forward defense in several ways. One, the reserve option, would create additional NATO forces from the pool of unused or underused European reservists. To assess the feasibility of the reserve option, this study examines one technical and two policy issues: (1) the factors important to reserve unit effectiveness, (2) the number and type of reserve units required to provide NATO with a capability for successful forward defense, and (3) the manpower and budgetary costs of acquiring that security. The analysis shows that approximately 12 division equivalents of reserve forces, costing $50 billion over 15 years (representing a 1.7 percent increase in the defense expenditures of those nations contributing to NATO's Central European defense), could mount the necessary defense. The least expensive alternative, at a cost of $41.2 billion, would purchase one U.S.-based heavy division with a companion POMCUS set (prepositioned materiel configured in unit sets) in Europe. The addition of a single division, however, would not enable NATO to mount a successful forward defense.
Reducing Risks Associated with Developing the LHX Mission Equipment Package - 1989
M. B. Berman, D. W. McIver, B. R. Orvis, M. L. Robbins, H. L. Shulman, R. H. Ruth
This Note describes RAND research into logistics supportability of the Mission Equipment Package (MEP) for the Army's proposed Light Helicopter Experimental (LHX). The LHX MEP specifications set a very advanced technological goal that poses several challenges to reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM). The authors suggest a strategy by which the Army can ensure they meet these RAM challenges and attain the associated benefits in MEP performance and cost savings.
U.S. and Soviet Relations with Argentina: Obstacles and Opportunities for the U.S. Army - 1989
R. Schmidt
Over the last two decades, Argentina has become the Soviet Union's largest trading partner in Latin America, a fact that some analysts fear signifies growing Soviet leverage in the so-called Southern Cone region of South America. This analysis suggests that Soviet-Argentine economic relations are likely to remain strong, but that the Soviet Union's strategic interests in Argentina are limited. Meanwhile, the United States is cultivating its own influence in Argentina, although it must operate in an environment with strong anti-U.S. sentiment. The U.S. Army can best enhance U.S. influence in the region by strengthening its military education and exchange programs with the Argentine Army. These exchange programs provide the opportunity to transfer the U.S. Army's professional skills. As compared with other U.S. Army policy options, education and exchange programs are also of low visibility--an important factor, since many Argentine people perceive a threat to their democracy from their own armed forces.
Developing and Assessing Concepts for Future U.S. Army Warfighting: A Progress Report - 1988
P. J. Romero
The U.S. Army's concept-based requirements system stipulates that future materiel requirements should be based on a concept of warfighting that has undergone extensive analysis and refinement. This Note reports on the progress of an ongoing RAND effort to develop a method to help systematize and streamline the process of designing concepts. RAND's model will provide a first-order estimate of the forces and resources needed to meet specified theater success goals for alternative concept designs. The model is meant to be flexible and fast-running, in order to serve as a tool for the exploration of new concept ideas. Analysts using the model will be able to experiment with variations in operational policy, examine the payoffs of improved technical performance, and conduct sensitivity analysis to identify robust concepts.
Relating Selected Army Logistics Resources to Combat Performance Measures - 1988
J. H. Bigelow
This Note describes ALA-X (Army Logistics Assessment--Extended), a project to develop a prototype methodology to build the logistics portion of the Army five-year program. In particular, it describes the central model, the logistics decision model (LDM), among the many small models that are used in the ALA-X methodology. LDM is a highly aggregate, two-sided, deterministic simulation of a theater campaign. Once LDM is calibrated, a user can vary stocks of resources and capacities, and observe their effects on combat performance measures. An additional set of models, the logistics functional models, make it possible to bridge the gap between the physical resources of the Army program and the capacities measured by ALA-X. (Presented at the 56th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, held at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, June 28-30, 1988.)
Applying the National Training Center Experience: Tactical Reconnaissance - 1987
M. Goldsmith, J. S. Hodges
Many observers have noted shortcomings in tactical reconnaissance during battles at the National Training Center. This study systematically examines battle data from two sources: take-home packages prepared for unit remedial training, and field data specifically collected for the present study. The author finds a clear correlation between success in offensive missions and reconnaissance. However, data indicate that essential reconnaissance tasks are accomplished in only half the battles studied. Generally, units do not exploit all the assets potentially available for reconnaissance. Task forces do not seem to give emphasis to the reconnaissance task. Review of doctrinal literature and courses of instruction indicate that added emphasis needs to be placed on reconnaissance in the Army training system. The author makes specific recommendations for changes in doctrine and for additional instruction. He also suggests several equipment changes and additions, as well as courses of action for task force commanders and staffs.
Families and Mission: A Review of the Effects of Family Factors on Army Attrition, Retention, and Readiness - 1987
G. Vernez, G. Zellman
This Note (1) reviews the Army's rationales for provision of quality-of-life and family support services; (2) presents an analytic framework for analyzing the influence of family factors and support programs on Army families and on the Army; and (3) organizes and evaluates findings of previous research about the effects of Army policies and services on both families and specific Army outcomes--attrition, retention, and readiness. In addition, it identifies gaps in knowledge about Army-family interactions, discusses the implications of research findings for Army family policy formulation, and suggests directions for future research.
Soviet Political Perspectives on Power Projection - 1987
F. Fukuyama, S. Bruckner, S. W. Stoecker
This Note analyzes the views of Soviet non-military writers and political leaders on the question of power projection in the Third World. Although Soviet writers do not broach the subject directly, they touch on power projection indirectly when writing on the themes of (1) the local political basis of revolutionary power, (2) external (Soviet Union) aid and assistance to Third World clients vs. competing domestic and military claims, (3) the role of "armed struggle" in promoting revolutionary change, and (4) the risky effects of Third World activism on relations with the United States. Each of these themes is examined in some detail. The authors find that only in discussions of armed struggle as a revolutionary strategy do the Soviets recognize greater opportunities for power projection, and this is restricted to Central America. Possible future Soviet policy is discussed.
Studies in Defense Organization: A Guide to Title III of the Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986 - 1987
J. L. Lacy
Title III of the Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986 directs the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Secretaries of the military departments to conduct separate studies ("reassessments") of the defense agencies and Department of Defense field activities. This Note, prepared at the request of the Army Reorganization Commission, examines the terms and the legislative background of the study requirement. It reviews the factors that animated the Congress to act as it did, and suggests the kind of study most appropriate to respond to the evident Congressional intent.
Applying the National Training Center Experience: Incidence of Ground-to-Ground Fratricide - 1986
M. Goldsmith
This Note uses data from the National Training Center instrumentation and observer systems to measure the frequency of fratricidal ground-to-ground engagements, to make some estimate of their importance to battle outcome, and to gain insights into the cases. Because the available data do not include infantry weapons, this study covers only vehicle system engagements and simulated artillery engagements. The study found that 1 to 3 percent of Blue vehicle kills were fratricidal, most fratricides were isolated, and multiple fratricides occurred mostly at night. For indirect fire, an average of 26.7 artillery missions were fired per battle. Of these, 3.1 percent resulted in fratricide, while 33 percent struck the enemy.
On the Adapting of Political-Military Games for Various Purposes - 1986
W. M. Jones
Political-military gaming has long been used to study international confrontations and conflicts, to provide a means of interchange for groups of scholars and operators interested in the interplay of political and military factors in area confrontations, and to educate and train people who may actually become involved in dealing with such confrontations. The basic structure and procedures of this type of gaming are subject to considerable variation. This Note attempts to describe these structures and processes, and is designed as a primer on the subject.
Utilizing the Data from the Army's National Training Center: Analytical Plan - 1986
R. A. Levine, J. S. Hodges, M. Goldsmith
This Note describes the Army's operations at its National Training Center (NTC) at Fort Irwin, California, and ways in which the data collected during those operations can be used to derive lessons about Army doctrine, training, and weapon systems. The discussion of operations at the NTC includes descriptions of the training conducted there, the facilities for training and data collection, and the types of data actually or potentially available. As a laboratory for deriving lessons, the NTC has unique advantages and disadvantages. These have implications for using the NTC experience to formulate and test hypotheses. In particular, the authors emphasize the importance of testing the results of formal analytic procedures against the experience and intuition of NTC and other military personnel. (See also N-2384.)
Conceptual Design for an Army Logistics Assessment--Extended (ALA-X) Methodology - 1985
J. H. Bigelow
This Note describes a conceptual design for Army Logistics Assessment--Extended (ALA-X), a methodology for assessing the readiness and sustainability of the U.S. Army. The methodology is intended for use in the Planning, Programming, and Budgeting process, so that those parts of the Army program dealing with logistics functions and resources can be better prepared and justified. The ALA-X methodology will relate resources among 38 categories of logistics resources to specific measures of combat capability and will treat them simultaneously so that tradeoffs and substitutions can be performed.
An Analysis of Cognitive Mapping Skill - 1981
S. E. Goldin, P. W. Thorndyke
Compares the performance of good and poor cognitive mappers on a variety of spatial knowledge acquisition and judgment tasks. Cognitive mapping skill was assessed by measuring subjects' knowledge of a highly overlearned environment, their home community. Subjects categorized as good or poor cognitive mappers participated in a series of experiments that examined learning a novel environment from navigation experience, map learning, map using and map interpretation, spatial judgments based on a memorized map, and navigation in a novel environment based on a memorized map. Good mappers performed more accurately than poor mappers in learning a novel environment, learning maps, and making spatial judgments based on a memorized map. Map using, map interpretation, and navigation tasks did not distinguish good from poor mappers. The authors conclude that, relative to poor mappers, good cognitive mappers are better able to encode and retain spatial information in memory and to mentally transform or manipulate spatial information in order to make spatial judgments, and they hypothesize that differences in spatial visualization and visual memory abilities may underlie these variations in task performance.
Ability Differences and Cognitive Mapping Skill - 1981
P. W. Thorndyke, S. E. Goldin
Compares good and poor cognitive mappers on a number of individual difference variables potentially related to cognitive mapping skill: spatial abilities, visual/verbal processing style, motivation, and experience. Good and poor mapper groups were given several assessment tests for each of these categories. Comparisons of good and poor mappers' performance on these tests indicated that only spatial abilities reliably distinguished good mappers from poor mappers. Good cognitive mappers showed greater visualization ability, spatial orientation ability, visual memory, and field independence. Other measures showed no between-group differences. It is concluded that spatial ability is a major determinant of cognitive mapping skill and that spatial ability tests can be used to select personnel for tasks requiring navigation, orientation, and spatial judgment skills.
Simulating Navigation for Spatial Knowledge Acquisition - 1981
S. E. Goldin, P. W. Thorndyke
Compares actual and simulated navigation as alternative sources of environmental knowledge. Subjects experienced a 5.15-mile tour through an unfamiliar environment through either a bus ride or a film taken from an automobile driving along the route. In addition, subjects received either a map to be studied prior to navigation, a verbal narrative giving angle and distance information during navigation, or no supplementary information. Film (simulated navigation) groups performed as well as or better than tour groups on landmark and configural knowledge measures. They were inferior to tour groups in route sequence knowledge only on turning angles. Supplementary information affected only film groups. Narration tended to depress performance; map study enhanced configural knowledge but depressed route knowledge. The authors conclude that simulated navigation can substitute for actual navigation under some circumstances, and that map supplements can enhance abstraction of configural relations from simulated navigation.
Nomograms for the Calculation of Propagation Effects on Tactical Millimeter-Wave Radio Links - 1979
W. Sollfrey, N-1157-A
Description of the development and use of nomograms for calculating propagation effects on tactical millimeter-wave radio links. The principal causes of attenuation in the millimeter-wave band (35-75 GHz) are oxygen absorption, which depends on radio frequency, and rain scattering, which depends on frequency and rain rate. The nomograms display these dependencies and the range equation, and may be used to calculate communication system performance as a function of range, frequency, and rain rate by simply drawing straight lines between scales. Use of the nomograms is illustrated by several worked examples. By following the techniques demonstrated in the examples, the user should be able to solve link performance problems speedily and simply.
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