RAND Arroyo Center Publications - Issue Papers
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ISSUE PAPERS
The publications below are sorted by year and title.
Preparing for Future Warfare with Advanced Technologies: Prioritizing the Next Generation of Capabilities - 2002
J. Matsumura, R. Steeb, J. Gordon IV, P. Steinberg
A new era in military planning is under way. As the defense leadership attempts to define and prepare a more efficient and effective military from the top down, the services are selectively transforming key capabilities to meet the anticipated needs for warfare in the new millennium. Past planning emphasized developing a superior military capability by way of manpower and materiel that would in large part already be in place. Where parity in manpower could not be achieved, technology was implemented to level the playing field. Many "force multipliers" were designed and fielded, including the first generation of truly "smart" and precision-guided weapons. In this new era of planning, the immediate challenge is about understanding the problem, not just the "who" and the "where," but also the "why" and "to what extent." One fundamental question is, "What capabilities are essential for the future and how should they be prioritized?" This paper seeks to address this question, bringing to bear empirical analysis based on sophisticated modeling and simulation recently carried out by RAND researchers. In particular, using a scenario based on experiences in Operation Allied Force in Kosovo in 1999, they evaluate how three prioritizations of capabilities might play out in a similar small-scale contingency in the 2015 timeframe.
Army Medical Strategy: Issues for the Future - 2001
G. Cecchine, D. Johnson, J. R. Bondanella, J. M. Polich, J. Sollinger
The U.S. Army Medical Department (AMEDD) provides peacetime health care for military beneficiaries while also maintaining readiness forwar and peacetime deployments. In this paper, we raise four issues that could affect this readiness and that deserve further study. These issues address the appropriateness of, and the ability to man,AMEDD’s planned medical structure, future operational concepts, and near-term operational planning in unified commands. The paper also discusses influences that have recently shaped medical planning. More-precise analyses of the issues raised and careful considerationof related risks are recommended.
Biometrics: Facing Up to Terrorism - 2001
J. D. Woodward, Jr.
As the nation recovers from the attacks of September 11, 2001, we must rededicate our efforts to preventing any such terrorist acts in the future. While there is no easy, foolproof technical fix to counter terrorism, the use of biometric technologies might help make America a safer place. Biometrics refers to the use of a person's physical characteristics or personal traits to identify, or verify the claimed identity, of that individual. Fingerprints, faces, voices, and handwritten signatures are examples of characteristics that have been used to identify us in this way. Biometric-based systems provide automatic, nearly instantaneous identification of a person by converting the biometric - for example, a fingerprint - into digital form and then comparing it against a computerized database. This document discusses how biometric technologies could be used to impede terrorism in three critical areas: controlling access to sensitive facilities at airports, preventing identity theft and fraud in the use of travel documents, and identifying known or suspected terrorists with a proposed counterterrorist application known as FaceCheck.
Keeping Military Pay Competitive: The Outlook for Civilian Wage Growth and Its Consequences - 2001
J. Hosek, J. Sharp
To help the military in its efforts to attract and keep high quality personnel, Congress voted in FY2000 for significant increases in military pay. But the military faces stiff competition from higher education as more young people attend college and as the financial value of a college education continues to rise. Will the recent pay increases be enough? To help answer this question, the authors looked at how military compensation will compare with private sector compensation in the next ten years. They compared current military and civilian pay for persons with similar characteristics, computed the wage gaps, and then compared pay streams for different career paths. The findings suggest that, to meet its manpower challenges, the military may have to adjust compensation further than called for in the recent pay legislation. It may also have to develop new views on career paths, in-service education, and transferability of skills.
Smart Management of R&D in the 21st Century: Strengthening the Army’s Science and Technology Capabilities - 2001
K. Horn, C. Wong, B. Held, E. Axelband, P. Steinberg, S. Newberry
Strategies to help the Army maintain its science and technology capabilities will be necessary to carry out the transformation to a 21st-century force. The vision for the Army of the 21st century involves transforming it into an Objective Force that is responsive, deployable, agile, versatile, lethal, survivable, and sustainable. Achieving the Objective Force will require the Army to maintain superior science and technology (S&T) capability through its research and development (R&D) and procurement efforts. Faced with current and continuing shortfalls in R&D budgets and increasing difficulty in attracting and retaining highly skilled scientific and engineering personnel, how can the Army ensure that it retains the S&T capabilities necessary to support the Army transformation? Arroyo research has shown that to be to be an effective smart buyer and smart provider, the Army may wish to pursue a strategy built on a foundation of three integrated building blocks: optimal in-house R&D, expanded collaborative efforts, and smart outsourcing. The researchers detail the roles that the each building block will play in establishing a robust smart-buyer capability and providing Army access to top-notch S&T.
Super Bowl Surveillance: Facing Up to Biometrics - 2001
J. D. Woodward, Jr.
The use of biometric facial recognition technology raises concerns about its potential dangers to privacy rights. The author examines the use of this technology at the Super Bowl in January 2001, exploring the countervailing benefits to national security and law enforcement. He concludes by offering policy recommendations to help maximize the technology’s utility while minimizing its threat to individual privacy.
Agility by a Different Measure: Creating a More Flexible U.S. Army - 2000
T. McNaugher, D. Johnson, J. Sollinger
This paper argues that the Army's efforts to deploy forces more rapidly is more than a matter of lightening the force. Equally important is the ability to deploy novel components of units that in turn plug into higher headquarters in unusual ways. The changes demanded by this requirement will not only enhance the Army's ability to perform stability and support operations but will also improve its capability in early entry operations. The unit that went to Somalia as part of the relief operation had to cope with a much greater span of control than normal because of the many attachments it had, a much wider geographical dispersion of its units, a range of unfamiliar tasks, and political-military issues. The ability to coordinate with different organizations can also help in the early entry operations. Arroyo Center analysis suggests that early-deploying forces would be more effective if they traded some direct-fire assets for deep-strike capabilities that normally reside at corps and higher levels. That is, the force would improve by pushing higher-level capabilities and the tools to control them down to the lower levels. To respond to these demands, the Army will have to push current capabilities to lower levels, create new some new ones (e.g., communications to reach out, up, and back), and develop training routines so units can practice.
Breaking the Mold: A New Paradigm for the Reserve Components - 2000
J. M. Halliday, D. Oaks, J. M. Sollinger
Operation Desert Storm and subsequent deployments have made it clear that the Army must be able to deploy its forces rapidly to locations around the world, not just to Europe or Korea. Despite Department of Defense progress in addressing this issue, difficulties still remain. For any major conflict, the United States will require a substantial complement of combat service and combat service support units, and the bulk of these units will have to come from the Reserve Components (RC). This issue paper argues that these units may not be as ready to deploy as they need to be and offers some observations about why that might be the case. Given the large size of the Army RC, it would be extremely expensive to bring it to a level of readiness analogous to that of the other services. But the Army does not have to raise the readiness of every RC unit to a par with those in the AC. Instead, it could improve the readiness of selected units, determined by CINC war plans. Such an approach would divide units into three categories: early deploying, later deploying, and not in any war plans. Units needed early would be indistinguishable from AC units in terms of equipment and would have all the required equipment and personnel. Furthermore, they would have substantial full-time support and enjoy training of both better quality and increased quantity. Units not needed as early would function much as the units in the Force Support Program do now, with somewhat lower levels of equipment and personnel, and fewer training dollars, than the first-tier units. Units not in the war plans would receive equipment and personnel as available and would be last priority for training dollars.
Small Deployments, Big Problems - 2000
J. M. Polich, B. R. Orvis, W. M. Hix
Recent deployments of military units to overseas noncombat operations-including Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo-have placed new and unanticipated stresses on the nation's armed services. Yet military leaders find it hard to pinpoint the causes of that stress. This leads many observers to ask: With nearly a half-million personnel on active duty, why does the Army have trouble supporting deployments that require 5,000 to 10,000 people? Arroyo Center researchers, collaborating with the Army Personnel Command and units at individual installations, have looked into that question for the case of Bosnia. They have found that personnel turbulence is a large part of the answer: Even modest deployments have large cascading effects on the military's dynamic system for managing units and soldiers within them. This paper shows how these problems highlight important issues for the Army's deployment policy in general. It explores the amount of turbulence generated by the Bosnia deployment, the factors behind the turbulence, and Army options for addressing it.
Using Venture Capital to Improve Army Research and Development - 2000
B. Held, I. Chang
The U.S. Army is having difficulty balancing its need for new technologies with the resources available to develop them. Since it is unlikely that the Army will devote substantially greater resources to its research and development, the Army must find better methods for developing the technologies needed to stage its revolution in military affairs while keeping current equipment relevant and affordable. This paper introduces the idea that the Army should fund some of its technology development through a private venture capital organization. The concept exploits venture capital's efficiency in developing technology, its access to the growing commercial technology sector, its capacity to respond with agility to changing technology, and its ability to leverage additional resources throughout the development cycle. The authors propose that the Army set up a venture capital fund as a not-for-profit corporation that makes equity investments in early-stage companies developing technologies that are important to the Army but also have potential to find commercial markets in the longer term. The use of a venture capital model for development of relevant advanced technologies could significantly help the Army achieve the acquisition reform goal of affordably acquiring the leading-edge technologies it needs.
Bettering the Balance: Large Wars and Small Contingencies - 1997
S. T. Hosmer, M. Leed, D. Persselin, J. M. Sollinger, R. E. Sortor, J. M. Taw
This issue paper combines the results of three Arroyo Center studies. It addresses the question of how the Army can remain prepared to fight major theater wars, its primary but least likely mission, while participating in smaller scale contingencies, which have been occurring with increasing frequency and which erode the Army's capability to perform its primary mission. The danger is that too great an involvement in these smaller-scale contingencies can undercut the Army's ability to do its primary job, particularly in light of force structure reductions that have left the Army thin in certain types of skills and units. Smaller scale contingencies make units unavailable for other types of operations, and the time they are unavailable extends beyond the time they are in theater, because of preparation and recovery activities. Also, the effect spreads to other units because deploying units are frequently filled to deploying strength or given additional capabilities by borrowing people and equipment from units that do not deploy. This borrowing makes the units that stay behind less capable of training or responding to other missions. The capabilities of deploying units are affected because, although many of the tasks are the same as those in major theater wars, e.g., patrolling, the conditions and standards differ greatly. Thus, the unit has to undergo a period of retraining when it returns. Unit equiment is also affected. The Army has a number of options--some relatively simple--that it can pursue to enhance or expand on its capability for these operations. It can use contractors, rely on the reserves to restore war-fighting capability, redesign existing organizations to give them a wider range of capabilities, improve routine training and provide more pre-SSC training, reduce equipment problems by altering logistic processes and priorities, improve its effectiveness at information-related operations with an eye to shortening smaller-scale contingencies.
Reengineering DoD Recruiting - 1997
J. R. Thomas
This paper considers lessons from commercial organizations that could improve the efficiency of the military recruiting process. The paper focuses on the process by which the Army and other services identify and contact young people who may be willing to enlist. To carry out such functions in civilian organizations, the telemarketing industry has combined technology with professionally prepared sales presentations to develop leads efficiently. Taking a similar direction, this paper proposes an alternative process and structure for recruiting, including more extensive use of telemarketing and a joint lead development process.
From Anarchy to Order in Russian Military R&D? - 1994
Adam Stulberg
This issue paper examines the state of administrative control over Russian military R&D in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. In contrast to the devolution of power experienced in other political, social, and economic spheres, there are strong indications of critical limits to regionalization and of emerging trends toward the recentralization of federal authority over Russian military R&D. In both the short- and long-terms, the federal government has the greatest stake in continued support of military R&D. More significantly, it enjoys economies of scale in providing key financial and material resources, and in coordinating extraregional ties with potential markets and the broader scientific community that are vital to the sponsorship of the military R&D establishment. Nevertheless, because of resource stringency of its own and incoherence in terms of policy design and implementation, the Russian federal government's ability to parlay this recentralization into an effective and aggressive military R&D effort remains suspect.
Materiel Distribution: Improving Support to Army Operations in Peace and War - 1994
John M. Halliday, Nancy Y. Moore
This issue paper identifies problems in the DoD distribution system, describes industry's practices, and suggests what DoD should do to improve its operation. The underlying causes of the distribution problems are many and complicated, but they group into four general categories: structural issues, user reactions, unresponsiveness to change, and low standards. On the other hand, commerical organizations have had tremendous success improving their distribution processes through a combination of organizational and technological change. Industry differs from DoD in that it operates to make a profit, but it also differs because its distribution system focuses on a single goal--a satisfied customer. The authors conclude by stating that the DoD should: (1) study industry distribution models carefully and selectively use or adapt them; (2) reengineer the system to determine which steps can be elimated, automated, or combined, which technologies are needed, and which of those offer the largest gain; (3) establish high standards of performance for each distribution element and measure the performance of each element against the standard.
Germany's Geopolitical Maturation: Strategy and Public Opinion After the Wall - 1993
R. D. Asmus
This issue paper presents the key findings of a recent public opinion survey conducted for RAND by Infraetest Burke Berlin in late 1992. The survey was the most recent in a series of RAND-sponsored opinion polls that seek to understand the future of German strategic thinking and implications for U.S. national security strategy. This year's survey results contain good news for American policymakers on an array of issues. A majority of Germans look forward to the Clinton Administration and view a more concerted U.S. effort to confront its domestic problems as a prerequisite for a strengthened U.S.-European relationship. German public support for NATO, for an American military presence in Germany, and for a broader "out of area" role for the alliance is on the rise. Germans also support European integration and see a strengthened European Community as a basis for a new "partnership among equals" across the Atlantic. Finally, the German public overwhelmingly supports the government's efforts to combat right-wing extremism. (For a more complete version of the survey results, see MR-444-FNF/OSD/A/AF)
New Army Noncombat Initiatives - 1993
E. H. Ondaatje
This issue paper outlines the U.S. Army's current role in three noncombat initiatives-education and community service; nation assistance, particularly in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe; and disaster management-suggests potential new activities in these initiatives, and examines some possible concerns. Following the evaluation of the three initiatives, the document concludes that if noncombat activity expands as a proportion of total Army activity, the Reserve Component share of that total might increase disproportionately. The document also observes that in terms of much of its ongoing noncombat activity, the Army does not receive credit in the public mind, does not adequately reward its participants, and does not incorporate these activities into its image (or vision) of itself and that Army leadership could easily reap public benefits by highlighting its noncombat contributions. The document ultimately points out that although the Army has the requisite capabilities for performing noncombat activities, in the final analysis the activities must be evaluated within the context of a U.S. Army vision.
Russian Military R&D: Are the Regions Taking Charge? - 1993
S. Leiter, C. M. Levy
This issue paper examines the future of Russian weapons acquisition and military R&D, hypothesizing that the most fruitful way to examine what is still a primordial soup is to take a regional approach. Based on preliminary observations and research, the authors argue that in terms of the Russian R&D establishment that will develop, the regions are clearly no longer passive players in the federal-local game, but will now be active in shaping national policy. Over the next few years, the interdependence of regional and state levels are expected to develop along new lines, divorced from the old Communist, center-dominated system. Science and technology, both military and civilian, will play a central role in this evolution. Given the unevenness and diversity of the diminished but still vast Russian science establishment, individual case studies, tracing the evolution of the major regional R&D centers, will offer the best insights into Russia's resurgent military potential.
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