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RAND and Middle East Policy Analysis
Introduction to RAND
In its early years, Middle East policy analysis by RAND focused primarily on strategic issues and geopolitical investigations most often linked to issues of American national security. As RAND grew and added a number of new analytic capabilities, however, its work on the Middle East broadened as well and began to reflect the various analytic emphases of its many research units. Over time, RAND has assembled a unique corps of nearly 800 researchers, notable not only for their individual skills but also for their interdisciplinary cooperation. It is rare to see such a wide range of diverse backgrounds within a single organization, and rarer still for them to collaborate routinely and effectively. At RAND, scientists and engineers, social scientists from many specialties, humanists, and members of the professions regularly work together to address the problems and concerns of people around the world.
RAND and the Middle East
Currently, RAND's work on the Middle East is conducted by virtually every one of its many and diverse research units. Although RAND does not align itself with political platforms, it is a working assumption at RAND that political issues are inherently linked to a variety of societal developments. Thus, in order to fully understand questions of stability in the Middle East, one has to be conversant in the political and societal issues in the region. In this way, RAND is able, perhaps to a greater degree than any other research institution in the world, to bring to bear a full array of analytic capabilities to understand the Middle East in the broadest possible sense.
Center for Middle East Public Policy and the RAND-Qatar Policy Institute
Much of RAND's Middle East work is coordinated by its Center for Middle East Public Policy (CMEPP). At RAND, it is CMEPP's responsibility to develop opportunities for RAND's many and diverse research units to involve themselves in Middle East work. Thus, CMEPP worked over several years to develop a relationship with the Qatar Foundation in Doha. The Qatar Foundation asked RAND for assistance in conducting an evaluation of its K-12 education system. CMEPP then turned to RAND Education, the unit at RAND responsible for dealing with K-12 issues, to accept this challenge. RAND Education undertook a preliminary evaluation of the K-12 system and subsequently was asked by The Qatar Foundation to develop options for national education reform. As a result of this interaction, RAND Education eventually came to be involved in K-12 education reform in Qatar in a large, multi-year project.
Many members of the RAND research staff have been profoundly influenced by the findings of the United Nations Development Program report on the Arab human condition. This report, prepared by and for Arab intellectuals, argued that the economic development of the Arab world is intrinsically linked to progress in areas having to do with education, the rights of women, and numerous other human capital domains. This assertion reflects a prevailing view at RAND that in order to understand societal evolution and strengthen societies, the human capital dimensions of these societies must be strengthened. Thus, RAND Education's project in Qatar is a step toward the accomplishment of this goal.
One consequence of the RAND project in Qatar has been an increased demand throughout the Middle East in RAND analysis. This growing demand has led RAND to create the RAND-Qatar Policy Institute (RQPI). The goal of RQPI is to expand the reach of RAND analysis throughout the Middle East. Given the centrality of Doha not only to the Arab world, but also to South Asia, it is RAND's expectation that having an operating facility in this strategic part of the world will allow it to broaden the scope of its policy analytic work. The new institute will be positioned within Qatar's Education City and, at this writing, is currently being organized and staffed.
Toward a Palestinian State
RAND has undertaken other types of analysis geared to understanding the relationship between societal evolution and human capital development. For example, RAND analysts are engaged in a large-scale effort to understand what is needed to create a Palestinian state. In this project, an interdisciplinary RAND team is trying to determine how to solve a variety of problems related to the nation-building process, focusing on such issues as water, refugees, internal and external security, education, and numerous other aspects of state formation. RAND is not engaged in the politics of whether or not a state should be created or how various political interests in the region are aligned on this issue. Instead of debating the political factors underlying whether or not a Palestinian state will be created, RAND instead is working in the empirical realm, using systematic, objective analysis to determine how such a state might function.
Initiative on Middle East Youth
In line with this empirical emphasis, RAND has also created the Initiative on Middle East Youth (IMEY). The goal of IMEY is to focus on those aspects of child rearing, in addition to education, that affect the attitudes of children and their ability to mature into full-fledged members of society. IMEY has signed a joint venture with Sesame Workshop and has produced a series of Sesame Street programs in Afghan languages for distribution in Afghanistan. The goal of these programs, disseminated by video rather than real-time television, is to address many of the issues ignored during the years of Taliban domination, years in which education, particularly for girls, was ignored. IMEY is also involved in a project on distance learning as a means to determine how computers could be used to augment the sometimes-inadequate educational facilities in a number of Middle East countries. Through IMEY, RAND will evaluate the effectiveness of these programs in order to make empirically based suggestions for future youth efforts in the Middle East.
National Security Issues in the Middle East
All of the above should not suggest that RAND is ignoring national security questions, which some think to be at the heart of RAND's analytic capabilities. RAND analysts are heavily engaged in studying a variety of security issues, including the war on terrorism, U.S. Middle East policy, questions of Gulf security, the future of Iran, post-Saddam Iraq, and countless other topics. Although RAND differs in its orientation from virtually every other research institution that deals with the Middle East, RAND nonetheless has close working relationships with virtually all of the other institutions. RAND's non-political character and its commitment to empirical, objective, systematic analysis naturally permit and encourage partnerships with institutions throughout the United States, the Middle East, and beyond. RAND is regarded as an honest broker and indeed is working to develop opportunities for policy analytic work with all countries in the region, including those in the Arab world, Israel, Iran, and Turkey. Although RAND is in many instances working closely with the United States government, RAND is an independent non-profit organization. Its independence is recognized and appreciated by its interlocutors around the world.
Conclusions
What is perhaps most unique and distinctive about RAND's innovative approach to the complex challenges confronting the Middle East is the analytic breadth that only RAND can command. The challenges confronting this vital region are overwhelming, both in their number and complexity. All of the following challenges demand repeated and high-level attention, both from regional decisionmakers and from those beyond the region who are committed to stability in the Middle East:
- Equitable resolution of the Palestine problem in a fashion sensitive to Palestinian desires for statehood and legitimate Israeli demands for national security
- The nation-building process in Iraq
- The promotion of democracy in a way that promotes, rather than undermines, stability
- The war on terrorism, along with the diminution of extremism and radicalism
- The future of Afghanistan
- Elite succession in a number of important states
- The challenges of the Arab human condition, as described by the U.N.D.P. report in the areas of women's' rights, education, and social equity.
These acute challenges represent only a small number of the issues that need to be effectively confronted in the Middle East. What is notable about this list is the complex interplay, as noted above, between social, cultural, economic, strategic, and political challenges. RAND recognizes its role as an institution geared to providing assistance to policymakers rather than making policy itself. It is the goal of RAND to undertake policy analysis so as to equip policymakers with the full array of options available to them, the costs and benefits of choosing one set of options over another, and a rigorously honest and objective sounding board which tries to help policymakers manage the oftentimes crushing responsibilities with which they are saddled. It is RAND's belief that a comprehensive approach to the region, bringing together RAND's unusually diverse skill set, may be the best route to helping this troubled region work its way through many of its problems. For it is only through the teaming of experts from a variety of disciplines that practical and realistic solutions to the region's problems can be found.
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