New Security Challenges: Policy Issues and Analytic Approaches
Pardee RAND Graduate School - Washington Defense Security Course
| Dates: | October 6-10, 2008 |
| Location: | RAND Corporation Washington Office 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, VA 22202-5050 |
| Time: | Monday - Thursday, October 6-9, 2008: 9:00 A.M.–Noon, and 1:30–4:30 P.M. Friday, October 10, 2008: 9:00 to 1:00 |
| Fee: | $2,500. All materials are provided. Graduate students can take the course (space available) for one credit at a cost of $1,100 with proof of full-time graduate student status. Payment is due at the time of registration. The application can be found here. |
| Brochure: |  2008 Defense Seminar Brochure |
The Program
September 11th drove home just how dramatically the security challenges that confront all nations have changed since the end of the Cold War. Today's threats include not only the conventional forces of potentially hostile nation states but also the threats of insurgency and of terrorist acts by non-state organizations. Hanging over this strategic landscape is the increasing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction that can be delivered by a variety of means. The transformed strategic situation challenges defense planners to take a dynamic approach in the development of security policy for their nations.
Since its inception in 2000, "New Security Challenges," an intensive weeklong program offered by the Pardee RAND Graduate School, has equipped participants with both an understanding of the most critical current policy challenges and the most up-to-date analytical techniques for addressing them. The program aims to give participants both knowledge and tools they can employ upon their return to their organizations. Past participants have been from a variety of countries and backgrounds, from defense to other national security agencies, and from private industry to academia.
Through the program, participants will:
- Be exposed to the latest analytic approaches to key defense challenges
- Gain a better understanding of select security topics of importance to the United States and other nations
- Develop a better understanding of many of the most pressing issues that confront security planners in the U.S. and other nations
- Participate in a hands-on exercise in strategic planning, examining the demands on U.S. military capabilities in a new strategic landscape.
This year's program will be held in RAND's Washington office, located near the Pentagon City metro station in Arlington, Virginia. Each session will be led by a prominent RAND researcher who has personally made a significant contribution to the topic at hand.
Curriculum
Alliance and Coalition Partnerships in Transition. During the past several years, the United States has shifted away from its traditional reliance on permanent alliances in favor of more flexible "coalitions of the willing." Nora Bensahel will discuss how this transition affects the U.S. security relationship with its international partners and how existing alliances such as NATO are adapting to ensure their continued relevance. She will also the current NATO operation in Afghanistan, and its implications for future multinational military operations.
How the Pentagon Runs. This course segment provides an understanding of how the Pentagon's budgeting and programming process works. It will include discussion of acquisition (OSD AT&L, Services Acquisition Leader, Program Executive Offices and Program Managers), requirements development (Joint Requirements Oversight Council, Joint Staff, Service Chiefs, Service Requirements Officials), and PPBE system (OSD Comptroller, OSD Program Analysis & Evaluation, Service Comptrollers, Service Chiefs, Service Programmers).
Sea Basing Analysis. Sea-based logistic support was sized under the Navy-Marine Corps concept for sea basing to sustain the maneuver element of a Marine Expeditionary Brigade (MEB) using rotary- and tilt-wing aircraft. RAND researchers assessed sea base ability to sustain joint operations and concluded that under certain conditions a sea base could simultaneously sustain both a MEB and an Army brigade. They also concluded that it could simultaneously sustain a MEB and move an Army brigade ashore in several days, representing a potential new capability for the Army. Jessie Riposo and Robert Button will discuss new sea basing concepts, new capabilities that these capabilities can provide, and the analytic process for this study.
Assessing China's Military. Popular assessments of military capability are often conducted by simply comparing numbers of military personnel or major combat platforms. History has shown, however, that military capability is a function not just of the size of a country's military or even the quality of its weapons and equipment, but also of its doctrine, organization, training, personnel, leadership, and logistical support. This is certainly true of China's military, whose capabilities have been increasing even as it has been getting smaller. This seminar will examine China's military along each of these dimensions and develop an overall assessment of both its current capabilities and likely future improvements.
America's Role in Nation-Building: From World War II to Iraq. Past U.S. roles in nation-building missions, from the post–World War II occupations of Germany and Japan through the more recent operations in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo, suggest lessons applicable to current efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq. James Dobbins will trace and discuss the difficulties encountered in both these current operations, including problems in planning, strategy, and execution, and will suggest ways to improve U.S. performance of such missions in the future.
Insurgency and Counterinsurgency. The U.S. military has been heavily engaged in counterinsurgency operations in recent years. There has been a flurry of COIN studies and doctrine produced as a result of the challenges experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan. RAND has recently produced a series of studies on insurgency and counterinsurgency that have contributed to the understanding of this type of conflict. John Gordon will review some of the key findings of these studies and offer insights on how the U.S can better prepare for future COIN operations.
The Impact of Technology on the Future of US and Allied Forces. The rapid advances in technology, especially information technology, is having a profound influence on the way the US and its allies plan and execute military operations. This session will examine how the character of high intensity operations has already changed irreversibly. Stu Johnson will review the ways that DoD and NATO are looking to couple emerging technologies with new operational concepts to enhance capabilities in stabilization operations and irregular warfare.
Counterinsurgency in Afghanistan. Following the initial success of U.S. and Afghan forces in overthrowing the Taliban regime in 2001, an increasingly violent insurgency began to develop. U.S. and coalition efforts in Afghanistan offer a useful opportunity to assess what works – and what does not – in counterinsurgency warfare. Seth Jones will examine the insurgency in Afghanistan and ask three major questions: What is the nature of the insurgency in Afghanistan? What factors have contributed to the success (and failure) of past insurgencies? What does this mean for today's efforts?
High-Resolution Modeling and Simulation for Joint Warfare Analysis. John Matsumura and Randall Steeb will discuss the evolution of high-resolution modeling and simulation to meet the demands of joint warfare analysis and planning. In particular, they will describe the RAND Joint Warfare Simulation and Analysis (JWSA) suite of models, along with the many critical challenges that lie ahead as part of the transformation process, including modeling of network-centric forces, exploring advanced technologies (e.g., robotics), and understanding the impact of complex terrain. Exemplary analysis using these tools will also be presented.
An Exercise-Based Look at Future Crisis Situations. A key feature of the course will be a table-top strategic planning exercise, led by Roger Molander and Peter Wilson, that will explore how the U.S. may have to response to a future domestic crisis. The exercise aims to identify what new and demanding capabilities will be needed – using a scenario in the relatively near future – and to elicit a menu of promising concepts from participants to meet those needs. Applying the RAND "Day After . . . " exercise methodology, groups will go though fast-moving steps in parallel with the same tasking and will compare the results of their deliberations in plenary sessions.
Building Partnership Capacity. Jennifer Moroney will discuss the Department of Defense strategies and challenges for security cooperation and building partnership capacity, and will focus primarily on policy changes since the last Quadrennial Defense Review. Issues of coordination between the Combatant Commands, Services, and other DoD agencies will be highlighted, as well as areas for improvement in terms of planning, resourcing, and execution. The lecture will draw heavily upon completed and ongoing RAND work for the US Army, Air Force, OSD and DTRA on building partnership capacity.
Ballistic Missile Defense. While most of the nation's defense efforts are focused on Iraq and the war on terrorism, the Pentagon has been quietly spending $10 billion a year to develop defenses against ballistic missiles. David Mosher will examine the technical and operational challenges that must be addressed to deploy effective defenses against a variety of threats and the role that missile defenses might play in future conflicts.
Minimizing the Threat from IEDs in Iraq. Walter Perry will cover the threat to coalition forces from improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which continue to impede and threaten convoys, patrols, and other operations in Iraq. IEDs are responsible for a significant number of casualties and deaths to date. Countering them requires blending technological countermeasures and counter-countermeasures with operational procedures to substantially reduce the threat. Beyond the experience in Iraq, U.S. and coalition forces will face similar tactics from future enemies that are incapable of prevailing in conventional combat. This suggests the need for a well-structured systems analysis process to address the IED threat as it is evolving in Iraq, and to assist in the development of more general approaches to such threats in future operations.
Advances in Defense Modeling. The defense decision environment has grown more complex as a small number of planning scenarios with some lesser included cases have been replaced with a dizzying array of potential conflicts, each with unique demands. Exploratory modeling harnesses the capabilities of advanced computer hardware and software to illustrate possible outcomes across a broad range of hundreds or thousands of alternative cases. Ron Trees will discuss the state of the art in military modeling and present examples of the application of exploratory modeling to illustrate the utility of the technique.
Intelligence for the 21st Century. Intelligence, like the military, confronts the challenge of very new targets, transnational ones like terrorist, not just states. Last century's target, like the Soviet Union and its military capabilities, were large and central. This century's are small and peripheral, even single individuals operating in places like Afghanistan. September 11th demonstrated that ways of collecting and analyzing information that worked against the Soviet Union set the United States up to fail against a nonhierarchical, nonstate, networked set of adversaries. The December 2004 U.S. legislation for the creation of a director of national intelligence began the reshaping of U.S. intelligence, but that reshaping remains very much a work in progress. Greg Treverton will explore the challenges of transforming the intelligence community to face the threats of today and tomorrow, a transformation that has its parallels in the experiences of many other nations.
Implications of Chinese Military Modernization for U.S. Air Operations. Following the decisive U.S. military victory over Iraqi forces in 1991, the Chinese military embarked on a concerted effort to modernize its doctrine and forces. Recognizing that the PLA was ill-equipped for modern combat, the PLA leadership sought to develop concepts and forces that would allow China to win a "local war under high technology conditions." The fruits of those efforts are becoming increasingly apparent. In particular, Chinese deployment of the world's first large, precision conventional TBM force; cruise missiles; fourth generation fighters; advanced land and naval-based SAMs; and world class anti-ship missiles may threaten the U.S. ability to conduct air and naval operations in the Western Pacific. Drawing heavily on previous work by RAND China scholars as well as ongoing work for the USAF, Roger Cliff will discuss the operational and strategic implications of Chinese advances and explores potential options (such as super-hardening of bases) to enhance U.S. capabilities to counter these emerging challenges.
Understanding "Transformation" from the Perspective of the 20th Century Revolutions in Military Affairs. Peter Wilson's hypothesis is that "revolutions in military affairs" (RMAs) are unique ways of war that interact with each other in a Hegelian cycle of thesis and antithesis. He will examine that hypothesis from the perspective of the four RMAs of the 20th century. Then he will turn to the current 21st century concept of "transformation," to examine it in light of the hypothesis with the intent of exploring what might be the emerging next revolution in military affairs.
Faculty
The faculty is selected from the RAND professional staff. They draw on their own cutting-edge research and a wealth of practical experience in presenting their courses.
Nora Bensahel is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, specializing in military strategy and doctrine. She is also an Adjunct Associate Professor in the Security Studies Program at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. Her recent work has examined stability operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, post-conflict reconstruction, military coalitions, and multilateral intervention. Her recent publications include "Mission Not Accomplished: What Went Wrong With Iraqi Reconstruction," "Organising for Nation Building," and The Counterterror Coalitions: Cooperation with Europe, NATO, and the European Union. She is an Associate Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute (London), and a member of the Executive Board of Women in International Security. She has held fellowships at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, and the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Stanford University.
Irv Blickstein joined RAND in April 2001 after retiring from the Navy Department. He is a research leader in Acquisition, Metrics, Planning Programming and Budgeting in the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center. He is involved in diverse projects for both the Army and the Navy. His expertise in PPBE has led to a review of Army program and budget presentations; aviation and ship maintenance practices in organizations external to the U.S. Navy. Current projects include the Evaluation of Navy Enterprises in PPBE, Review of Goldwater-Nichols as applied to the Acquisition Processes in the Navy, Growth of O&MN in the DoD. He has received the Presidential Rank award of Meritorious Executive and the Presidential Rank award of Distinguished Executive. In 1994, he received the DOD Distinguished Civilian Service Award in 1995, the Meritorious Civilian Service Award and in 1996, the David Packard award for innovations in Acquisition Reform. He is currently serving as a member of the CNO's Executive Panel. Mr. Blickstein received a BSIE from Ohio State University and a master's in Engineering Administration from The George Washington University.
Robert Button is a senior researcher at RAND where his research has supported primarily the Department of the Navy and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He has worked extensively on naval operational issues, primarily in support of N-81, the Assessment Branch of OPNAV, and has coauthored two studies on sea basing.
Roger Cliff is a senior political scientist at RAND. His current research focuses on Chinese defense policy and capabilities and U.S. defense strategy. Recent RAND publications include Entering the Dragon's Lair: Chinese Anti-Access Strategies and Their Implications for the United States; U.S.-China Relations After Resolution of Taiwan's Status; and A New Direction for China's Defense Industries. Dr. Cliff previously was Assistant for Strategy Development in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense.
James Dobbins directs RAND's International Security and Defense Policy Center. He has held State Department and White House posts including Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Special Assistant to the President for the Western Hemisphere, Special Adviser to the President and Secretary of State for the Balkans, and Ambassador to the European Community. He is the principal author of The RAND History of Nation-Building, 2005, and The Beginner's Guide to Nation Building, 2007. He served as the Clinton Administration's Special envoy for Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia and Kosovo and was the Bush Administration's first envoy for Afghanistan.
John Gordon joined RAND in 1997 following a 20-year U.S. Army career. He obtained his PhD from George Mason University and, since joining RAND, has participated in and led numerous studies for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the Departments of the Army and Navy. Dr. Gordon authored or co-authored numerous RAND reports, including several book-length works. He has led or participated in RAND research projects for the governments of the United Kingdom, Sweden, Italy, and Germany. Additionally, he authored over 20 articles on defense topics in professional journals.
Stuart Johnson is a senior research analyst at RAND. He has served in OSD, has been Director of Systems Analysis at NATO Headquarters, Senior Scientist at the Naval War College, and Chair for Force Transformation Studies at National Defense University. His publications focus on the interface of technology and military operations. He received his Ph.D. from M.I.T.
Seth G. Jones is a political scientist at RAND and an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. He has focused on counterinsurgency and counterterrorism missions for the U.S. Department of Defense and the White House, including U.S. operations in Afghanistan. He is the author of "In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan" (W.W. Norton, forthcoming), as well as "The Rise of European Security Cooperation" (Cambridge University Press, 2007). He has published a range of articles in such journals as International Security, The National Interest, Security Studies, Chicago Journal of International Law, and Survival, as well as such newspapers and magazines as The New York Times, Newsweek, and Financial Times. He received his M.A. and Ph.D. from the University of Chicago.
John Matsumura is a senior engineer at RAND who has worked on a wide range of defense-related research, with particular emphasis on understanding how advanced concepts and technologies can improve military capability. During his more than 15 years at RAND, his research has ranged from providing detailed assessments of system performance to shaping acquisition decisions and defense policy.
Roger Molander is a senior research scientist at RAND. His current focus is terrorism and the use of exercises to enable more effective decisionmaking on homeland security and counterterrorism strategy, policy, and operational issues. He is also working on the evolution of strategic warfare—in particular, issues associated with (1) strategic information warfare and critical infrastructure protection and (2) the future role of nuclear weapons in strategic warfare. A major component of his work is leading the application of RAND's "Day After . . . " exercise methodology to these issues.
Jennifer Moroney, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, primarily manages projects for the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community. Currently, she is leading studies that focus on US Government security cooperation and building partnership capacity, foreign pre-deployment training models and practices, and U.S. pre-deployment training for train, advise, assist missions. Prior to joining RAND, Dr. Moroney worked for DFI Government Services, where she primarily managed regional security studies for the Department of Defense. Dr. Moroney previously worked in OSD/NATO Policy where she was responsible for the NATO-Russia/Ukraine portfolios. Dr. Moroney received her Ph.D. in International Relations from the University of Kent at Canterbury, United Kingdom.
David Mosher is a senior policy analyst at RAND. He also teaches a course at Georgetown University on the technology of missiles and missile defense. His research currently focuses on nuclear strategy; military space; proliferation; terrorist acquisition of nuclear, biological, chemical (NBC) and radiological weapons; deterring and responding to the use of NBC weapons in regional conflicts; individual preparedness for catastrophic terrorism; and Army planning for homeland security. He was the study director of the American Physical Society's 2003 report on boost-phase defense.
Walter Perry is a retired U.S. Army officer who has been with RAND since 1984. He has conducted extensive work on developing metrics for assessing military information systems. He recently co-led an Army-sponsored Iraq study that resulted in a multi-volume, fully documented account of the conflict. He has published extensively at RAND and in several scholarly journals.
Jessie Riposo has joined the RAND staff in 2003 and has worked on a variety of research projects for the U.S. Navy, OSD, and the UK MoD. The focus of her research has been on industrial policy and defense acquisition. She is currently an Operations Research Analyst at the RAND Corporation.
Randall Steeb is a senior scientist at RAND, specializing in quantitative analysis of advanced military and commercial systems. His management responsibilities include the Joint Warfare Simulation and Analysis Activity, former Program Director, Information Sciences Department, and Adjunct Professor, Pardee Rand Graduate School. He has led efforts on distributed simulation (both constructive and virtual), rapid reaction force improvements, advanced fire support systems, future air traffic control systems, decision support systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, military operations in urban terrain, combat vehicle design, robotic ground vehicles, and counter-IED studies. He received his doctorate in Systems Engineering from UCLA, with specialties in robotics, AI, mechanical engineering, and bio-engineering.
Ron Trees is a senior operations research analyst at RAND who specializes in military analysis and gaming. His recent work includes applying combat models to a variety of analytical problems examining potential conflicts in Korea and the Persian Gulf in order to assess the impacts of alternative threats, concepts of operation, and force developments.
Gregory Treverton is director of the RAND Corporation's Center for Global Risk and Security. Earlier, he directed RAND's Intelligence Policy Center and its International Security and Defense Policy Center, and he was associate dean of the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His recent work has examined at terrorism, intelligence and law enforcement, with a special interest in new forms of public-private partnership. He has served in government for the first Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, handling Europe for the National Security Council and, most recently as vice chair of the National Intelligence Council, overseeing the writing of America's National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs). He holds an A. B. summa cum laude from Princeton University and an M.P.P (Master's in Public Policy) and Ph.D. in economics and politics from Harvard. His latest books are Intelligence for an Era of Terror, forthcoming; Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information, Cambridge University Press, 2001; and New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking, (edited,), RAND, 2003
Alan Vick is a senior political scientist at RAND. Alan has authored major RAND reports for the USAF on ground threats to air bases, enhancing air power's capability against light infantry opponents, air power in urban operations, air operations against elusive targets, alternatives for deploying the Army Stryker Brigade, new concepts for joint air-ground operations, air power's role in countering insurgencies and air-naval concepts for maritime interdiction. His report, Snakes in the Eagle's Nest: A History of Ground Attacks on Air Bases, has been used for over a decade as a textbook by USAF Security Forces. He currently is leading a study on the implications of Chinese military modernization for USAF basing and operations in the Pacific.
Peter Wilson is a senior political scientist who specializes in defense policy and planning research. He has conducted numerous studies for the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and various foreign clients. He has also coauthored a variety of RAND studies and has published articles on a broad range of national security issues.
Pardee RAND Graduate School
The The Pardee RAND Graduate School, established in 1970, has evolved into a model for graduate programs in policy analysis. Students and faculty examine a wide range of issues, including national security studies. Graduates typically go on to careers in government or private industry, applying their research and strategic planning skills to such areas as defense, health, and education. Through courses and workshops, the school and its parent organization, the RAND Corporation, are at the forefront of defense-related policy analysis. The Pardee RAND Graduate School is a founding member of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.
About the Program
The course is offered at RAND's Washington Office at Pentagon City, Arlington, VA. Sessions will be held from 9:00 to noon and from 1:30 to 4:30 on Monday through Thursday, 6–9 October 2008, and from 9:00 to 1:00 on Friday, 10 October 2008. RAND faculty will be available for informal discussion one-half hour before and after each session. Light refreshments will be provided. A social hour is planned for the first evening of the course.
The fee for this course is $2,500. All materials are provided. Graduate students can take the course (space available) for one credit at a cost of $1,100 with proof of full-time graduate student status. Payment is due at the time of registration.
For more information, you can contact:
| Mr. Paraag Shukla | Ms. Maggie Lada |
| Phone: 703.413.1100 x 5529 | Phone: 703.413.1100 x 5514 |
| Fax: 703.413.8111 | Fax: 703.413.8111 |
| Email: shukla@rand.org | Email: mlada@rand.org |
Mailing address:
RAND Corporation
1200 South Hayes Street
Arlington, VA 22202-5050
A PDF of the 2008 brochure is available online. The 2008 Application can be found here.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world.
What earlier participants had to say about the seminar:
“Excellent course. I look forward to attending future courses at RAND.”
“The exercises were engaging and provided substantive discussions of a high caliber.”
“Instructors were experts on their topics and it was wonderful learning directly from them.”
“Presentations were challenging and stimulated debate and discussion.”
“Well balanced mix of personnel and perspectives in the class.”
“Overall, a wonderful impression. The course was well worth the time.”
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